2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Bangalore Swans]

When it comes to a decision on what player is drafted, what trade is done, what player is cut, does the head coach have the final say?

In American sports the general manager assembles the team and manages the salary cap while the head coach does the coaching. Sometimes the coach is given the team to which he has little say over and told to coach.

Who is the Swans equivalent general manager? Is it Kinnear Beatson or Charlie Gardner?

Can Beatson and Gardner make player personnel decisions without Longmire’s endorsement?

Does Longmire effectively hold the title of head coach and general manager?

[Thunder Shaker]

Although I think we might not have offered Sinclair the extension if we knew Ladhams was going to be available, it’s probably not the worst thing to have a double insurance policy for the ruck, particularly as a team who would think they can go deep into finals over the next few years.

I would be very nervous going into next year relying on Hickey staying healthy and Sinclair being the only legitimate backup.

I think Ladhams has major upside, I reckon Port still rate him but realise they can’t provide opportunities for he and Hayes so it’s better they get something back on a trade and save some money by letting him go (rather than waiting until next year when one or both might walk out anyway).

Ladhams hasn’t had enough ruck exposure to assess a huge volume, so it’s the glimpses you have to look at - which I think look really good.

Ladhams has never rucked against Hickey or Sinclair. The only game he played against Sydney was his fourth game where we had Aliir, McLean and Reid sharing the ruck duties, and the only game he has played against West Coast was this year. So we can't make an easy direct comparison between these players.

[Thunder Shaker]

Not that it really matters, but it's hard to envisage Melbourne's pick next year as anything other than 17 or 18.

Melbourne could have a shocker of a season next year where they are decimated by injuries and miss the finals by a significant margin. Melbourne's finishes in the past 7 years are: 13, 11, 9, 5, 17, 9, 1. The year after they finished fifth, they finished 17th. There has been no consistency year on year. Few tipped them even to make the finals this year.

Sure, they won the premiership this year quite convincingly, but that is no indication of future form. On average in any year, about one or two sides in the top four do not make the top four the following year and two or three sides make the finals one year and miss the next. This year's top four had three of the same teams as last year's top four. The other top four side from last year missed the finals (Richmond). Only four sides that made the finals last year also did so this year (West Coast, St Kilda and Collingwood missed the finals).

So statistically, Melbourne's chances of being in the top four next year are not 100%, it's closer to 75%. (Though I would tip them to make the top four next year regardless. The top four side that IMO has the greatest chance of missing the top four next year is Geelong. I doubt they would even make the finals.)

[Markwebbos]

They were going to trade for pick 17 but we knocked it back

So are you saying they’ve done this to smooth the trade of JD? Or for their own benefit. Neither make heaps of sense to me.

Surely they’d rather have pick 17 this year than possible pick 18 next?

And can’t see how future pick is any better than the 17 we knocked back.

[Steve]

When it comes to a decision on what player is drafted, what trade is done, what player is cut, does the head coach have the final say?

You’ve listed a few distinct phases of ‘list management’, and the reality is each would have different involvement and influence.

In an AFL context it’s probably ideal there is balanced input from all those parties. The coach should have a strong voice as it’s no good signing or retaining players the coach doesn’t want/rate and won’t play, or doesn’t fit in with their game plan or have attributes they desire.

But then when it comes to drafting you have experts in talent identification who should be trusted ahead of what a coach might see from the highlights of prospects he’s shown, and decide when it’s best to pick certain types in a given draft for best overall result etc.

And then overall you need people responsible for the longer-term approach to building and replenishing a list which may go beyond a coach’s tenure, be responsible for balancing the salary cap etc.

The smart coaches with longevity probably understand the whole process better and work in sync with those other parties as well, so you wouldn’t have the extremes of the coach having veto vs being sidelined completely - they’d have strong influence but also understand when things go a different way than they may prefer.

[goswannies]

So are you saying they’ve done this to smooth the trade of JD? Or for their own benefit. Neither make heaps of sense to me.

Surely they’d rather have pick 17 this year than possible pick 18 next?

And can’t see how future pick is any better than the 17 we knocked back.

If the future pick is in a draft where we need points for an academy kid we especially want it could helpful, especially if there are no stand out academy kids this year

[jcroz29]

If the future pick is in a draft where we need points for an academy kid we especially want it could helpful, especially if there are no stand out academy kids this year

Or if there is a perception that next years draft is deeper than this years.

It still would feel fairer if they were offering their own future first rounder and not the one acquired from the Dees


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[lwjoyner]

I'll say it again. NO to Ladhams/ Port would npot deal last year why should we do it this year. wants to be 1st ruck what and replace hickey on this yrs performance.

[Auntie.Gerald]

For me the decision making is around do we think 2022 is our most likely window

We had 15 wins only 2 less than the top team

We had an easy draw but equally we had 3 very important players out for our preliminary

We have Kennedy and Bu with us in 2022 and still are two players as at their firm right now that u would love in a final series.

That means make sure u have the best list possible without destroying future competitiveness

McDonald gets the luxury or having Bud out there in 2022 which in my opinion supports our 2022 being a great opportunity for a top4 and a finals series where we could surprise

2023 I just can't see us at that next level. I see us very competitive but not a list that is as dangerous as 2022

If that means we need another key defender, ruck and or make the offer to Jordan something he agrees to to stay that that makes sense to me

I see more upside with our list in 2022

[Roadrunner]

For me the decision making is around do we think 2022 is our most likely window

We had 15 wins only 2 less than the top team

We had an easy draw but equally we had 3 very important players out for our preliminary

We have Kennedy and Bu with us in 2022 and still are two players as at their firm right now that u would love in a final series.

That means make sure u have the best list possible without destroying future competitiveness

McDonald gets the luxury or having Bud out there in 2022 which in my opinion supports our 2022 being a great opportunity for a top4 and a finals series where we could surprise

2023 I just can't see us at that next level. I see us very competitive but not a list that is as dangerous as 2022

If that means we need another key defender, ruck and or make the offer to Jordan something he agrees to to stay that that makes sense to me

I see more upside with our list in 2022

I believe we are 2 key players short at present. 1- a tall intercept defender against monster forwards.
2- a high quality back up ruckman.

If we can successfully fill these roles we can make top 4 for several years to come, and the flag will be within sight each year. We may lose Buddy after 2022 but if his body stands up he could go another year. This would give time for young Logan to develop plus McLean and Amartey.

I don’t think either is good enough for a #2 ruck- look at Jackson at Melbourne- that’s the type we need. Would Ladhams be good enough? Don’t know, but I wouldn’t be paying overs for him.

The tall defender is the other spot we desperately need to fill. Is Paddy the answer? The Fairypups had the same problem and recruited Keith, who has done a good job. We need to do the same, as we are far too light with just Ramps and Tom McCartin. Is Talia a short term option? KB and his team need to find a solution if we are to improve our ladder position next year and challenge.

JD is gone as far as I’m concerned so we move on and learn from this. If we fill the above roles successfully we can win the flag without him and remain top 4 for quite a while.

[Markwebbos]

I have a new theory this morning based on the Papa experience, which is KB has put a price on JDs head that he knows Adelaide won’t meet to (1) buy time for club to meet with him (2) hope he’d rather stay at the Swans than risk the PSD.

High stakes. If JD is prepared to use PSD we have to fold.

[bloodspirit]

You’ve listed a few distinct phases of ‘list management’, and the reality is each would have different involvement and influence.

In an AFL context it’s probably ideal there is balanced input from all those parties. The coach should have a strong voice as it’s no good signing or retaining players the coach doesn’t want/rate and won’t play, or doesn’t fit in with their game plan or have attributes they desire.

But then when it comes to drafting you have experts in talent identification who should be trusted ahead of what a coach might see from the highlights of prospects he’s shown, and decide when it’s best to pick certain types in a given draft for best overall result etc.

And then overall you need people responsible for the longer-term approach to building and replenishing a list which may go beyond a coach’s tenure, be responsible for balancing the salary cap etc.

The smart coaches with longevity probably understand the whole process better and work in sync with those other parties as well, so you wouldn’t have the extremes of the coach having veto vs being sidelined completely - they’d have strong influence but also understand when things go a different way than they may prefer.

I largely agree with you, Steve.

I think the senior footy staff work together. John Longmire definitely doesn't have final say on any trade or drafting decisions. Basically Kinnear Beatson is in charge of all of that. And he reports to Charlie Gardiner, who reports to Tom Harley. I'm not sure whether Horse reports to Tom or Charlie. However I think the four of them work collaboratively and respect one another's expertises. Charlie lets KB do the negotiating and trading but would supervise the list strategy. Horse would get a say (especially in relation to trades I would imagine but less so with drafting).

[KSAS]

i would like someone in the media to please explain why Cerra is worth pick 6 & future 3rd Rounder and Dawson only a pick 17 or 18? So frustrating Freo were able to get that deal for their star uncontracted player & we are being forced to accept unders for ours. PSD threat level looks the difference to me.

[Jimitron5000]

i would like someone in the media to please explain why Cerra is worth pick 6 & future 3rd Rounder and Dawson only a pick 17 or 18? So frustrating Freo were able to get that deal for their star uncontracted player & we are being forced to accept unders for ours. PSD threat level looks the difference to me.

There was an article in The Age about this. I won't post the link as I will screw up the thread. My take is there is no good reason other than the draft picks the teams currently hold and the quality of players in the top 4 of the draft compared to the next 10. The Crows pick 4 (although it will likely be 6 due to father son bidding) is likely to pick up a high quality player, where as Carlton's pick is a little bit more of a lottery. That said, you pick up good players anywhere in the draft, like pick 56 for example.
I reckon if the Crows had pick 10 they would hand it over.

[Markwebbos]

I think it's unfortunate that JD wants to go to a club deep in a rebuild who really shouldn't be handing over first rounders. Plus the Crows are a club that doesn't like to pay fair price for players, whereas the Blues do. I do feel that JD has shafted us twice in a way. If he'd told us earlier he wanted to leave, or at the very least flagged it as a possibility, then we could worked to find a club prepared to pay a fair price. Which is how the Cerra deal feels. He could have gone to Melbourne, but chose Blues I think partly because he knew it would get done (and was fair to his former club).

Still there's plenty yet to play out. Who knows what discussions we've had with Jordan and his agent about the PSD, with North or GCS, with Port, with the Crows. If North turn around and say we'll take JD if he puts himself into the PSD, then Adelaide and JD are screwed. Which I would rather enjoy.