2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[The Big Cat]

The four way pick trade that has been done means either

A. we are getting a future first as all or part of the trade

B. Cows have shut down trade talks and will just use PSD to get Dawson

C. If it's B we may end up accepting something unpalatable just to get a pick or two in the door rather than get nothing

Feeling uneasy about this now

That deal gives Crows Melbourne's First rounder for next year, which might be coverage if they trade THEIR first rounder for next year to the Swans for Dawson.

[Ludwig]

Crows future 1st is the only thing that's left for them to trade for Dawson and it's too early in the trade period to walk Dawson to the PSD. So it looks very good for a Dawson for Crows 2022 first rounder.

That leaves us with picks 12, 31 and 39. I can't see us trading pick 12 for Ladhams, but perhaps pick 31 could be about right. There are several possible combinations involving us swapping 1st rounders with Port and giving up one of our 2nd rounders. Ladhams would solidify our ruck and forward stocks well into the future, so should be a good move if Ladhams continues his development on his current trajectory. Then the focus is squarely on solidifying our backline.

Dawson is big loss, but if things fall right, we should be okay.

[707]

That deal gives Crows Melbourne's First rounder for next year, which might be coverage if they trade THEIR first rounder for next year to the Swans for Dawson.

Cows will want to keep their 2022 first hoping to lure Lukocious and/or Rankine home from GC who are both OOC next year.

I'm nervous now as I just can't see how we would be the motivation behind the Cows pick swap, see below from the AFL website -

"It's understood another deal was put forward by Adelaide officials on Wednesday morning, but a resolution couldn't be reached by the time the Crows became involved in the significant pick-swap in mid-afternoon"

So Cows went ahead with their own pick swap burning part of the package they put to us this morning. This is brinkmanship on our part

[Syd76]

The four way pick trade that has been done means either

A. we are getting a future first as all or part of the trade

B. Cows have shut down trade talks and will just use PSD to get Dawson

C. If it's B we may end up accepting something unpalatable just to get a pick or two in the door rather than get nothing

Feeling uneasy about this now

If we don't get anything else then so be it. I feel we need to draw a line in the sand. As someone rightly pointed out, if we keel over, then the likes of McDonald, Warner et al will walk all over us when their time comes. Obviously I would not want to inflict hari kiri, but a big part of me says stuff it. The players have a little bit too much power. Unfortunately this is the paradigm that we are dealing in. If JD was really genuine about things he should have said.. strike a deal with whichever SA side gives you the best outcome. I am sure that the RWO'ers would have then been far happier in letting him go.

As someone else mentioned on here, it is highly unlikely that the player we pick up will not be the same calibre of player as JD. But given he is a person after all I bear him no ill will, and hope he plays well... just not against us.

[Steve]

You have to laugh when Port trade a late second round pick for Aliir, a future (presumably mid-to late) third round pick for Finlayson, but want a first round pick for Ladhams who they told to look elsewhere.

I have no doubt a second round pick would get that done if we want him.

I also think Adelaide would now reckon they have some more options up their sleeve with those 2 first rounders next year - probably want something back from us if they were to give their first 2022 pick, or give us something extra if we accept that second 2022 first rounder.

[Aprilbr]

Despite the public posturing, its very unlikely Adelaide will walk Dawson to the PSD. The Manager and Dawson won't want the uncertainty of that. He could end up at Norf that way. They cannot guarantee he will get to Adelaide. Port could easily also come into play. Its looking more likely to me that we will either receive Adelaide's first rounder for next year or, more likely, that Melbourne's first rounder for next year that they recently received, goes to us as the key part of a trade.

[Thunder Shaker]

It would seem more likely that we told the Crows that pick 17 plus some later picks were not enough, but we were willing to take Adelaide's 2022 1st rounder in exchange for Dawson. That pick is likely to be in the top 10. The Crows would still have a 1st rounder in 2022, likely to be near the end of the round.

I agree with your and Aprilbr's assessments.

Adelaide has the following picks after the 4-club pick trades: 4, 33, 75, 80, their future 1st round pick, Melbourne's future first-round pick, their future second-round pick, their future third-round pick (future fourth-round pick traded to St Kilda).

If pick 17 (Bulldogs) was knocked back, I doubt Melbourne's future first-round pick would be enough, as it will be roughly the same as pick 17 this year. I doubt they will offer pick 4, at least not on its own. Either they are going to offer pick 4 for a pick in return, or they are going to offer one of the future first-round picks they hold.

My guess: Adelaide gets Dawson, Sydney gets Adelaide's future first-round pick, plus a pick swap that improves Adelaide's holding of later picks (such as pick 31 for 33).

[The Big Cat]

Despite the public posturing, its very unlikely Adelaide will walk Dawson to the PSD. The Manager and Dawson won't want the uncertainty of that. He could end up at Norf that way. They cannot guarantee he will get to Adelaide. Port could easily also come into play. Its looking more likely to me that we will either receive Adelaide's first rounder for next year or, more likely, that Melbourne's first rounder for next year that they recently received, goes to us as the key part of a trade.

But we refused the equivalent pick they were going to get from the Dogs.

[WomblingFree]

Cows will want to keep their 2022 first hoping to lure Lukocious and/or Rankine home from GC who are both OOC next year.

I'm nervous now as I just can't see how we would be the motivation behind the Cows pick swap

Stating the obvious I would say that there are two obvious scenarios now of a trade for Dawson

(1) Pick upgrade from 12 to 4 plus a second rounder in 2022. Leaves them with three first rounders next year if we include their 2023 first rounder to try and land Lukusios and Rankine

(2) We get Melbourne's first round pick for 2022 which could be better then pick 19 this year (17 plus 2 FS) or may not be.....

I can't see them parting with their first rounder next year but it's much more likely now they have anotehr first rounder

[The Big Cat]

If we don't get anything else then so be it. I feel we need to draw a line in the sand. As someone rightly pointed out, if we keel over, then the likes of McDonald, Warner et al will walk all over us when their time comes.

If we let Dawson go to the PSD and, as normally happens, he gets to Adelaide anyway, that gives more incentive for clubs to refuse decent trades knowing they will get their man for zilch.

[MattW]

The four way pick trade that has been done means either

A. we are getting a future first as all or part of the trade

B. Cows have shut down trade talks and will just use PSD to get Dawson

C. If it's B we may end up accepting something unpalatable just to get a pick or two in the door rather than get nothing

Feeling uneasy about this now

I think A.

Twomey said around midday that Adelaide had presented another offer to Sydney: AFL Trade Radio on Twitter: ""A new offer has been presented today. We'll wait and see if that one gets more traction from the Swans."

- Cal Twomey on Adelaide's ongoing discussions with the Swans for Jordan Dawson

Watch - https://t.co/IaT94HnvH3

Listen - https://t.co/p03pNgLiyx

#AFLTrade".

The 4 team trade happened mid arvo. It would be odd if that offer was on the table for such a short time.

I thought it was really interesting that it was reported we chased Barrass, who is a year off free agency. Supported my suspicion we could use our 12 and the gain from Adelaide on a star backman. Still thinking Darcy Moore...

EDIT: Which may explain any lag in accepting the Adelaide offer - we need to check with that third team whether the package built with the Adelaide picks would suffice.

[Bangalore Swans]

Despite the public posturing, its very unlikely Adelaide will walk Dawson to the PSD. The Manager and Dawson won't want the uncertainty of that. He could end up at Norf that way. They cannot guarantee he will get to Adelaide. Port could easily also come into play. Its looking more likely to me that we will either receive Adelaide's first rounder for next year or, more likely, that Melbourne's first rounder for next year that they recently received, goes to us as the key part of a trade.

PSD could be interesting. If North and the GC start getting interested in Dawson then the Crows will need to up their offer to Dawson to scare North and the Suns away. Dawson may have to put a price of $800-900 over 5 years on his head. That would seriously disrupt the Crows salary cap for years to come (like Tippett).

I think Adelaide would want to do a deal with the Swans to stop this eventuality. Maybe North will put a silly bid in for Dawson to force the deal high.

If it came to that and Dawson flat out refused to go to North, would he be forced to sit out a season?

[Aprilbr]

But we refused the equivalent pick they were going to get from the Dogs.

Its not quite the same as it is in a different draft (2022 draftees may be more predictable to assess due to less Covid impact) plus there is no guarantee that the Dees will make the GF next season despite how good they looked this season.

[Aprilbr]

PSD could be interesting. If North and the GC start getting interested in Dawson then the Crows will need to up their offer to Dawson to scare North and the Suns away. Dawson may have to put a price of $800-900 over 5 years on his head. That would seriously disrupt the Crows salary cap for years to come (like Tippett).

I think Adelaide would want to do a deal with the Swans to stop this eventuality. Maybe North will put a silly bid in for Dawson to force the deal high.

If it came to that and Dawson flat out refused to go to North, would he be forced to sit out a season?

I agree, BS! There is an element of risk to Adelaide that they won't get their man if he goes to the PSD so I expect a deal to be done. I feel like it will involve one of those two first round picks for next season as previously mentioned. If that is the case, a deal could be finalised pretty quickly from here. If not, then buckle in as the poker game will go down to the wire.

[Thunder Shaker]

If we let Dawson go to the PSD and, as normally happens, he gets to Adelaide anyway, that gives more incentive for clubs to refuse decent trades knowing they will get their man for zilch.

It also runs the following risks:
* The player could end up at another club.
* The AFL could change the rules to protect the integrity of trading and the draft.
* A club that tampers with trading in this way could be penalised. For example, Adelaide could end up with a two-year ban on trading in players and a two-year ban on participating in the PSD.
* The player could be refused permission to play.
* The rules could be changed so the player is not allowed to stipulate any contract terms in the PSD. The player has to take what is offered or sit out for 12 months.
* The PSD could be scrapped entirely.
* Other clubs could exact payback in future drafts.

So such a move is not without possible consequences. The most likely way it could go wrong is for Norf to pick up Dawson in the PSD.

I expect Adelaide's going to cough up a first-round pick as a part of the trade, but with three to choose from (including next year's), there's plenty of scope for haggling.