2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[MattW]

Agree with all of that, liz.

On the latter point, I think the media discussion of Dawson's worth really separates those who closely watch all footy games from those who watch some or little.

I recall Gerard Whateley expressing surprise early on that something as low in the draft order as Port's 16 might get it done - i.e. that was a steal. Kane Cornes today readily agreed with Gardiner's implicit suggestion that Dawson was a better player than Cerra. Gerard Healy reckons he's a top ten pick and future All Australian.

However, most of the dudes hosting trade radio have no idea. Idle, ill-informed speculation.

On Cerra, I agree with you (and Cornes and Gardiner about their respective value), but worth noting that Jake Niall is reporting that Fremantle offered him $700k and he's taking less from Carlton. $700k is less than either Adelaide or Sydney are reported to have offered Dawson. Perhaps this has contributed to the case for a larger offer.

AFL 2021: What’s behind Carlton Blues’ trade moves?

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Yeah Liz, The clowns on Fox Footy's Trade Table tonight John Ralph described Dawson as a handy Winger but is no Craig Bradley! Tom Morris reckons Dawson has only had 1 good year & pick 17 is right. Montagna thinks Dawson is worth around Picks 12-13 and we should accept 17 even thougb it's slightly unders otherwise we'll lose him in PSD. King made point Dawson is worth top 10 pick basex on his durability & Saints getting Brad Hill for pick 10. King then pointed it's not a sellers market with reduced caps & Clubs holding into their top picks.

Consistent with my previous post.

[The Big Cat]

I can’t buy this view that it’s the points that count, and not necessarily the picks that contribute to accumulating those points. Would you rather own Winx or two or three horses that finished lengths behind.

[liz]

King then pointed it's not a sellers market with reduced caps & Clubs holding into their top picks.

That may be relevant to those clubs/players where the club has told a contracted player to look around for other opportunities (eg Ladhams at Port) but not really relevant to the Dawson situation. The Swans are an extremely reluctant seller, and the cap doesn't seem to be too much of a constraint to keeping him. Clubs "holding onto their top picks" is more about what they think they can get away with that anything else. I don't think it's because this draft is purported to be especially strong. (It once was, but the circumstances of the last two years make it a tricky draft to navigate and make it more of a lottery than normal. Meaning that outside the very few top picks, the first round picks probably have less relative value than in other years.)

[Aprilbr]

Like many here, I watched the Fox Footy discussion on this. We are into the high stakes stage now! A real game of poker here. I don't tend to subscribe to the view that "walking him to the pre-season draft will send a message" is a worthwhile option for us. Gold Coast walked Martin to the PSD a couple of years back and he still ended up going to Carlton anyway and as far as I can see it hasn't discouraged anyone else from leaving them. They just got zip for him! A similar situation happened years ago with Port during the Choco era when they refused to trade a then in-demand player to Carlton. I forget his name but he did not fulfil his potential and ended up in trouble with the law! Port got zip for him and he ended up at Carlton anyway. Again, a message was sent but seemingly nobody heard it.

If Dawson goes into the PSD, they will put $1 million on his head in the first year knowing nobody else before them will go for that, even Norf!

So we have to be pragmatic here. His fair value is a top 10 pick but we are in a weak bargaining position here. Pick 17 plus something else on top is pretty close to the most achievable outcome for us in these difficult circumstances. Judas Dawson will play for Adelaide next year so we just have to accept that and extract the best deal possible we can in these adverse circumstances. Take the emotion out. The only leverage I can see to achieve a better deal is to either get Port involved and hope that he will agree to go there- unlikely but worth a go. Alternatively, evaluate if Norf can stump up the cash for him, but that really only aids us as a deterrent. Just my thoughts.

[i'm-uninformed2]

It's irritating how much of a role the media seems to play in determining a "fair" trade value for a player, particularly given those calls are made by largely ignorant ex-players and a group of AFL.com.au nerds who don't seem to know much of lists outside the Vic teams. As soon as Cerra announced he wanted a trade, this collective media clan determined that Carlton's first pick was just the starting point. Soon afterwards, they started with the idea that a second round pick was about right for Dawson. I quite like the fact that this pack of clowns is slowly changing their tune and deciding that maybe the two players have a pretty similar trade value (which doesn't necessarily mean the trades will match due to the different capital of the clubs and the presence of the PSD). It shouldn't actually make much difference to how the trades go down, but it's still somewhat interesting to watch.

Liz dropping clowns, nerds, ignorant and clan into a post is the equivalent of the rest of us talking like blue sailors, and it’s magnificent.

[The Big Cat]

Like many here, I watched the Fox Footy discussion on this. We are into the high stakes stage now! A real game of poker here. I don't tend to subscribe to the view that "walking him to the pre-season draft will send a message" is a worthwhile option for us. Gold Coast walked Martin to the PSD a couple of years back and he still ended up going to Carlton anyway and as far as I can see it hasn't discouraged anyone else from leaving them. They just got zip for him! A similar situation happened years ago with Port during the Choco era when they refused to trade a then in-demand player to Carlton. I forget his name but he did not fulfil his potential and ended up in trouble with the law! Port got zip for him and he ended up at Carlton anyway. Again, a message was sent but seemingly nobody heard it.

If Dawson goes into the PSD, they will put $1 million on his head in the first year knowing nobody else before them will go for that, even Norf!

Tend to agree about the PSD. Same thing happened with Luke Ball a few years ago when he wanted to go to Collingwood (might have been the National Draft) but he dropped through to about pick 30 to get to pies.

I can’t name one player who was pushed to PSD and didn’t end up at the club of their choice. Clubs just don’t want to @@@@@@ in another team’s nest.

[MattW]

Totally agree MattW. I’ve said this all along- pick 4 is the minimum. Actually Jordan is worth a lot more, because he is a ready made elite player, potentially an AA, and no guarantee that a pick 4 can even become a regular in a year or two.

How can second rounders come close? I understand that there’s a points system that equates to various picks, but the problem with it is that it doesn’t relate to a player’s worth in reality. So you can say that a pick 4 is mathematically equivalent to picks x,y and z in so many different combinations and that’s fine. But when we’re talking about a top player I think we need to look at it in a different way. Sure, it’s very hard if not impossible to replace like with like, and unfortunately we’re not in a strong position when a player is out of contract.

The whole system needs revision as I don’t think a player should be allowed to leave a club because he wants to be closer to family after 2 years, which is the initial draft contract, unless he isn’t offered an extension or a new contract.
This will help clubs like the Suns who lose players early to Vic clubs- hence never

In the EPL, players’ contracts usually have a release clause $ amount and this acts to compensate the selling club. I’m not proposing this for our game. But if a player wants to join another club, then the “selling” club should be able to nominate either an exchange of players or the draft pick/s they would be happy with. In other words the selling club should be dictating the terms as it has put in all the effort in developing the player- as we have done with Jordan, who didn’t do much in his first few years with us.

So Jordan would be allowed to move closer to family after 6 years with us- as long as we receive either a suitable player in exchange or draft pick/s we are happy with. This would be made clear in the contract and would apply until 8 years service when Free Agency rules kick in.

Just a thought- maybe out of frustration and disappointment!

This is a wise and I suspect prescient post. The comparison with the EPL is interesting and apt.

Listening to The Age Real Footy podcast tonight, Peter Ryan (who I understand is on the Swans beat during the trade period) indicated there's a feeling within Sydney that they're a bit sick of players nominating clubs as a general principle.

Clearly, it would have been easier to deal with Port. Dawson wanted to go 'home' to South Australia for personal reasons. That announced desire to leave came before he chose a club, for separate reasons. That choice has disadvantaged the Swans and you could understand that being annoying. If it was really simply about 'going home', why the need to 'nominate' a club?

[AppleCore]

Charlie is certainly not a polished media performer. Remember that train wreck of an interview that he did after the trade deadline a couple of years back when we did not get the Daniher deal done? He was like a lamb to slaughter in answering the media pack.

Harley is the opposite in this regard. He is polished, confident and articulate. I just hope that Charlie is much better at the other parts of his job description. I feel we have a strong administration and coaching panel at present. The only question marks in my eye are over Charlie and perhaps our Reserves coach, Laidler.

Harley has had a lot more experience having worked in front of the channel 7 cameras for a number of years. Gardiner is a lawyer and certainly speaks like one. I have no issue with this. His job is to negotiate the best deal for the club, not drop tidbits of information for sporting journalists.

[Bangalore Swans]

Any chance Port can come into play for Dawson?

Why is he set on the Crows and not Port? He would be much better with the Port game plan.

[troyjones2525]

Like many here, I watched the Fox Footy discussion on this. We are into the high stakes stage now! A real game of poker here. I don't tend to subscribe to the view that "walking him to the pre-season draft will send a message" is a worthwhile option for us. Gold Coast walked Martin to the PSD a couple of years back and he still ended up going to Carlton anyway and as far as I can see it hasn't discouraged anyone else from leaving them. They just got zip for him! A similar situation happened years ago with Port during the Choco era when they refused to trade a then in-demand player to Carlton. I forget his name but he did not fulfil his potential and ended up in trouble with the law! Port got zip for him and he ended up at Carlton anyway. Again, a message was sent but seemingly nobody heard it.

If Dawson goes into the PSD, they will put $1 million on his head in the first year knowing nobody else before them will go for that, even Norf!

So we have to be pragmatic here. His fair value is a top 10 pick but we are in a weak bargaining position here. Pick 17 plus something else on top is pretty close to the most achievable outcome for us in these difficult circumstances. Judas Dawson will play for Adelaide next year so we just have to accept that and extract the best deal possible we can in these adverse circumstances. Take the emotion out. The only leverage I can see to achieve a better deal is to either get Port involved and hope that he will agree to go there- unlikely but worth a go. Alternatively, evaluate if Norf can stump up the cash for him, but that really only aids us as a deterrent. Just my thoughts.

100% agree here! While I definitely don't feel we should just bend over and take it regarding a Dawson trade I also don't want us getting nothing for him either!

As I said in an earlier post, if Dawson goes to the pre-season draft nobody else will take him, no matter what price he puts on his head so please people, don't keep bringing that option up because it ain't going to happen, it never ever does! The team the player nominates always get their man, even if the media want to play it up like there's a chance somebody could snatch him to sell papers!

It's a real fine line in this situation with clubs arguing on fair value and what they will give up but unfortunately if the player is un-contracted, the club losing the player is at a huge disadvantage! It's a different ball game if they're contracted obviously hence our tough stance with Paps a couple of years ago.

As much as I value Dawson and wouldn't trade him for even pick 4 if I had the choice, he has put us in a really @@@@ spot and we are either going to have to eventually accept unders, or lose him for nothing which as the above post states, really achieves nothing in the long run...

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[troyjones2525]

Any chance Port can come into play for Dawson?

Why is he set on the Crows and not Port? He would be much better with the Port game plan.

As far as I'm aware he followed the Crows as a kid and idolised Riccutio who spoke to him prior to his "decision"... Even though these days players don't obviously choose teams they supported as their sole reason to change teams, I could imagine that if you're a South Australian and had a choice between playing for the side you followed as a kid or the arch enemy, you'd choose your former beloved club.

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[troyjones2525]

As much as I think Cooney is a bit of a fool and way off the mark with most things he brings up, I actually don't mind this one for our point of view! What does everyone else think???

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[Markwebbos]

I suggested we get Port to give us 16 and Ladhams for JD. That’s pretty close.

However it relies on Port accepting less than pick 31 for Ladhams and in that case we are in effect getting 16 for JD. I think we could do better on the JD side of things.

[Cardinal]

Like it enough. Assuming the dogs would want those picks for the points.

Would prefer Peter Ladhams and pick 16 to Port in a direct swap for Dawson.

[Steve]

I think Gardiner is a smart guy and personally I’d have media polish low on the list of priorities for his role. I’m happy to judge on the results, there’s already too many people in the world who are style over substance.

He’s saying all the right things and does know what to feed the media to get our messages across (eg. playing down our interest in Ladhams by simply highlighting that his management contacted us).

A big part of it all will be what Beatson and Dalrymple are telling them re: what sort of players will be available at the picks being offered. So I’d take it as highly likely we’re not massively enthused at this point and risk/reward of pushing for more has well-and-truly been thought through.