2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Markwebbos]

Anyone able to listen to what Twomey is saying about the Dawson trade, just up on the AFL website

Ladhams is due $400k next season, just that makes him worth less in picks

He pretty much said without explanation, we may just need to bite the bullet as its been back and forth a few times and pick 15-18 might not be too far off the mark. Nathan Schmook thought we'd try and get more. I think it will go through one more iteration.

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Anyone able to listen to what Twomey is saying about the Dawson trade, just up on the AFL website

Ladhams is due $400k next season, just that makes him worth less in picks

Port may pay some of Ladhams salary next year. I think we are not far from getting something extra from the Crows that will enable us to get Ladhams and retain our first 2 picks this year

[707]

Official - "PETER Ladhams has officially notified Port Adelaide that he wants to move to Sydney"

[sprite]

This is an outstanding post and provides a strong counter to some of my arguments.

Why is the go home factor so big in Australia for sportsman? American kids go to College, most moving out of home and then the elite sportsman go anywhere for a professional opportunity. Same for soccer players.

How has this go home culture been able to develop around the AFL? I think the talent pool is too small in the AFL, 25 million people with a chance to make an AFL list of 40 odd players on 18 teams. This breeds a culture of entitlement amongst the best players.

What about the NFL. Over 300 million population, 32 teams and around 63 players per team. You even have guys from Australia such as Jordan Mailata and Michael Dickson who are taking starting jobs and depriving Americans. This is a huge talent pool and so many people around America and the World want a job. They go wherever they can. There is no go factor is this league as the talent pool is so big and people won’t jeopardise a job.

I agree there are too many clubs and a too small a talent pool, I don't think you can definitively say that this drives a culture of entitlement. You need to complete comparative studies between the codes / sports.


Things to consider.

We don't have a pool of 25M, there were around 645k males between 17 and 20 in Australia in 2019, so number will be much the same now.

Of that total say 12% are registered to play AFL with a state body, that total is about 77k and the bulk of those are in the three major AFL states.

In 2019, I managed to find the number who were in the draft pool, that was 114 and of that total 65 were drafted on the night(s). With 51% staying in their home state and 49 % being picked up by interstate clubs.
Is the go home factor a big problem? I don't think so. It has been suggested that some analysis be conducted of the numbers since the draft was introduced. Neil may have thoughts on this or my logic, happy to hear them.

Part of the problem is that clubs or managers can start shopping around prior to the end of contracts, this should only be permitted at the end of the final season of the contract.

Raise the draft age to 19, let the kids finish studies and gain some life experience, they can continue to play for the clubs they are currently at.
What is the minimum age that a player in NFL is drafted compared to AFL?

Make the first or rookie contract three years, which is being pushed by the clubs. Clubs see it as a way to reduce costs, by seeing the players development and being able to make the next offer more in line with the players development and ability.

Further thoughts:
What about NRL? Do they have issues with the go home factor?
How many NFL draftees are cut or do not handle the first year?
How many are cut or shopped/farmed off to lower leagues when in contracts or out contract.
What is the socio/economic background of the draftees, if they are from a poorer background most will likely stay as this is their only way of earning a decent income compared to the low minimum wage most get in USA.
How many of the draftees have ended up with serious medical / addiction issues?

I wouldn't be holding the NFL up as beacon of honesty and integrity.

This situation may spark the AFL into action to look at the draft/PSD and trade practices to reduce this farce happening in the future.

Sorry for the rambling post.

[Markwebbos]

Now’s when the Swans play their trump card with JD. “Port or PSD, you choose?” And get Port to give us Ladhams and 16 for JD.

I would so love to see him not get to the Crows.

[giant]

I have just had my daughter and grandchildren visit , havent been that emotional since the 05 flag . Stay safe everyone and do the right thing , it is worth it !

Great news!

[Roadrunner]

Now’s when the Swans play their trump card with JD. “Port or PSD, you choose?” And get Port to give us Ladhams and 16 for JD.

I would so love to see him not get to the Crows.

No Markwebbos- the trump card for JD to play is “ Trade or I stay a Swan” The PSD doesn’t carry any weight, as both sides know full well.

[Roadrunner]

KTigers, your points are pretty well spot on, but in the case of JD, his form towards the end of last year warranted either an extension or a new contract- it was pretty obvious that he was starting to blossom and so should/could have been retained.

Most of us started to really value him and his left peg.

[AB Swannie]

Even though there is a lot of talk about a ruck merry-go-round each year, it seems that it is actually rare for a ruck like Ladhams who has been playing first team football to be traded. I've tried to find a comparable trade and there are a lot of trades involving reserve grade rucks (ag Andrew Phillips) or old age rucks (Sam Jacobs, Stef Martin). Hickey was a bit of both and his trade was complicated with the number of swaps but was traded in for about pick 41. The closest trade I can find is Braydon Preuss who was traded last year to GWS for pick 31. I would think that Ladhams would be more valuable at his age and experience than Preuss and so if we can get away with giving up only 31, it may just be a good deal.

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KTigers, your points are pretty well spot on, but in the case of JD, his form towards the end of last year warranted either an extension or a new contract- it was pretty obvious that he was starting to blossom and so should/could have been retained.

Most of us started to really value him and his left peg.

What evidence is there that the Swans didn't try to extend in 2020? I'd say it is more likely that they did try but JD's management suggested waiting as his value would likely increase.

[AppleCore]

You are assuming that all players we recruit from outside NSW are mummy's boys who will eventually miss their cooking and 'want' to piss off home. Do you honestly think that? I know the Dawson situation may give them an excuse if they want it but they may not. Some kids like to make 'their own way' in life.

I certainly do not assume that anyone recruited from outside NSW is a "mummy's boy" and agree that some interstate recruits may well enjoy a move away from their home state. Every situation is likely to be different. Nevertheless, I think it is entirely reasonable to suggest that if you have, for example, grown up in Perth, barracked for the Weagles, and have most of your relatives and friends living in WA, then there are inevitably going to be strong forces pulling you back to that state. In addition, you may have a manager who stands to profit significantly if he can get you to move back home. Such forces are likely to be reinforced when your relatives, friends etc. see that someone like Jordan Dawson was successful in achieving his wishes.

[Thunder Shaker]

Some trading speculation:

Sydney gets Melbourne's future first from Adelaide and pick 33. Adelaide gets Dawson.
Port Adelaide gets pick 33 from Sydney. Sydney gets Ladhams.
Adelaide gets Dawson. Sydney gets Melbourne's future first-round pick and pick 33.

Overall, this is a three-way trade:
Sydney: Melbourne's future first-round pick, Ladhams
Adelaide: Dawson
Port Adelaide: Pick 33.

This is roughly what the discussion here is suggesting. It seems a little sparse. Port Adelaide may want a bit more than a late second-round draft pick and Adelaide would think a first and second round picks are too much on their own for Dawson.

So Sydney may need to offer a little more to get both deals done.

Adelaide are within their rights to offer just one first-round pick, even if it is the least valuable first-round pick on offer (a future pick tied to the reigning premiers). Because the pick isn't worth a lot, Adelaide should offer a little more. Their future second-round pick in exchange for a lesser-valued second-round pick may be sufficient.

A first-round pick for Ladhams is too much if Sydney is paying Ladhams' backended contract. A salary dump should cut the asking price significantly. Pick 33 may not be enough. Adelaide's future second-round pick may get the job done.

So here's the three-way trade I am suggesting would be equitable:
Sydney: Melbourne's future first-round pick (from Adelaide), Ladhams (from Port Adelaide)
Adelaide: Dawson, pick 33 (from Sydney).
Port Adelaide: Adelaide's future second-round pick (from Adelaide).

Dawson would be equal to Melbourne's future first-round pick plus Adelaide's future second-round pick minus pick 33.
Ladhams would be equal to Adelaide's future second-round pick.

[Roadrunner]

Official - "PETER Ladhams has officially notified Port Adelaide that he wants to move to Sydney"

Does this weaken Port’s hand and in turn strengthen ours? If so, exactly how, as he is still under contract?

[i'm-uninformed2]

I'd say if this goes through - and still an if - I reckon it's definitely goodbye Sam Reid. I don't say that with any joy as I've always like Sam's team first ethos when he got on the park, but it appears over for him.

[Aprilbr]

No Markwebbos- the trump card for JD to play is “ Trade or I stay a Swan” The PSD doesn’t carry any weight, as both sides know full well.

I sincerely wish our leverage was that great, RR, but I doubt that it is. For example, Adelaide's $ may well be quite superior to the Power's due to their better salary cap situation versus Port. I'm not sure the Crows or JD fear the PSD as much as you might think.

[707]

Does this weaken Port’s hand and in turn strengthen ours? If so, exactly how, as he is still under contract?

We're the only suitor and are lukewarm on the trade.

Port whilst asking for a first are under a little pressure here as Hayes who Port don't want to lose is wanting senior action but is stuck behind Ladhams and both are OOC next year so PSD comes into play!

Port also keen on O'Meara but don't have cap space so clearing $400k next year by trading out Ladhams works for them.

Ladhams has mixed form, his best rucking is very good but he can also be lacklustre, he is only 23 and lightly played at AFL level. If we can get him up to his best level consistently, he will solve our lead ruck issue post Hickey.

Take the $400k salary dump but don't over pay in picks.

[liz]

We're the only suitor and are lukewarm on the trade.

I just listened to the trade podcast on the AFL site with Nat Edwards and Damian Barrett.

If you believe every Barrett says, it came as a bit of a surprise to Ladhams that Port wanted to trade him out. And he suggests there is no way Port want him on their list going forward, whether that's because of some undisclosed issues that gave rise to them wanting to trade him out (hinted at obliquely by Barrett) or just because they think it will be awkward to take him back now that they've put him on the trade table. So for Port to now want a first round trade pick seems rich.

The Swans shouldn't be desperate for him this season (unlike last, when a decent ruck was a high priority). So they can afford to - and should - play it very lukewarm.

Last year we traded them a contracted key defender who was almost, but not quite, cemented in the first team, but with a suggestion of unfulfilled potential. They certainly didn't give us a first round selection for him.