2023 Preseason

[Ludwig]

Is it just me, or are you contradicting yourself. You say "it's too hard for a young side [presumably us] to adjust to playing 2 styles of game, one with Buddy in the side and one without" and then in the next breath say we should start games without him and then bring him on thereby "forcing the other side to adjust to a different style" [and presumably us too].

I imagine you will most likely retort: of course I should be expecting you to contradict yourself; that's the way the Ludwig show rolls.

I does seem to be a contradiction, but in the regular course of the season we need to develop a type of game plan, but if that plan is not working on the day (call it Plan A) then we bring in Buddy to shake thinks up (Plan B). It's more about forcing the opposition to change than for us to change. If the opposition have our number early in the game, then it makes sense for us to try something different that might be better. Buddy is the kind of player that can make a significant change in the way the game goes, but I don't think it belongs in our Plan A.

The Ludwig show is very nuanced, and not easy to follow without special training.

[bloodspirit]

I love the Ludwig Show, and its nuances!

[Roadrunner]

I does seem to be a contradiction, but in the regular course of the season we need to develop a type of game plan, but if that plan is not working on the day (call it Plan A) then we bring in Buddy to shake thinks up (Plan B). It's more about forcing the opposition to change than for us to change. If the opposition have our number early in the game, then it makes sense for us to try something different that might be better. Buddy is the kind of player that can make a significant change in the way the game goes, but I don't think it belongs in our Plan A.

The Ludwig show is very nuanced, and not easy to follow without special training.

Makes perfect sense to me- essential to have Plans A and B, and even a C if needed. I see Buddy as an impact player rather than a regular starter. The question is, who will partner Logan up front. We defo need another key forward imho.

The Ludwig show is very intricate but worthwhile once you understand what he’s trying to say!????

[wolftone57]

May as well go the whole hog and compare out total team output with and without the Bud. I do seem to remember a few headlines over the past couple of seasons to the tune of "No Bud, no worries"....but I also remember a few games where the Bud has got us across the line too.

A player like Bud will definitely get you over the line on a few occasions. This is because he has more opportunities to do so than any other forward. He has the ability to burn a defender if one out, unless their names are Taylor, Moore or Phil Davis.

In the matches played without him we actually did not need one player to step up, they all did.

[stevoswan]

I see Brisbane beat the reigning premiers by about the same margin as they beat us by last week. I feel better now.

Confused by those claiming we're probably not good enough to win the flag this year.....do they forgot we made the GF last year and all our 'youngsters' are a year older?

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A player like Bud will definitely get you over the line on a few occasions. This is because he has more opportunities to do so than any other forward. He has the ability to burn a defender if one out, unless their names are Taylor, Moore or Phil Davis.

In the matches played without him we actually did not need one player to step up, they all did.

I agree with all that.

[wolftone57]

Last year I questioned our signing Buddy for another season. My arguments then and now are the same. Buddy may be one of the greatest players of all time, but he is now a disruption to team development. With Buddy in the side, we delay the way our team will function for the next decade.

When Buddy does play, he should be the sub. He should not play in the 22 ahead of Reid, Logan or Amartey. And I think we should only play 2 key forwards.

Longmire's recent comments about Buddy suggest that we may well move away from dependence on Buddy as the centrepiece of our attack. We will have to wait to unravel the typical Longmire vagueness on how he plans to play Buddy.

The only problem with the Reid proposition is; Where is he? Not on the injury list. Not playing. Is there a reserves match? If so, is he playing? Amartey seems to have gone missing too. Gould has a back injury according to pundits elsewhere yet not on the injury list. There is no information on a reserves trial this week.

I agree we must move away from dependence on Buddy. Have been saying this for a few years now. We are totally predictable when he is there. We use him 60% of the time which is just incredible. Far too much. He is the most used of any forward in the comp. Saints King is next at 23%. We need to spread the load. Figures suggest when Bud does not play we share the responsibility and Logan averages 2.5/match from only 19% targeting. Bud averages 2.35 from 60%. Other players like Heeney, Papley & Hayward also kick more goals than when Bud plays. This is because they have more ball directed at them and the forward entries are spread more evenly between the group.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

I agree we must move away from dependence on Buddy. Have been saying this for a few years now. We are totally predictable when he is there. We use him 60% of the time which is just incredible. Far too much. He is the most used of any forward in the comp. Saints King is next at 23%. We need to spread the load. Figures suggest when Bud does not play we share the responsibility and Logan averages 2.5/match from only 19% targeting. Bud averages 2.35 from 60%. Other players like Heeney, Papley & Hayward also kick more goals than when Bud plays. This is because they have more ball directed at them and the forward entries are spread more evenly between the group.

2.35 from 60% - that's some seriously alarming stat. Where does it come from Wolfy?

[gloveski]

The only problem with the Reid proposition is; Where is he? Not on the injury list. Not playing. Is there a reserves match? If so, is he playing? Amartey seems to have gone missing too. Gould has a back injury according to pundits elsewhere yet not on the injury list. There is no information on a reserves trial this week.

I agree we must move away from dependence on Buddy. Have been saying this for a few years now. We are totally predictable when he is there. We use him 60% of the time which is just incredible. Far too much. He is the most used of any forward in the comp. Saints King is next at 23%. We need to spread the load. Figures suggest when Bud does not play we share the responsibility and Logan averages 2.5/match from only 19% targeting. Bud averages 2.35 from 60%. Other players like Heeney, Papley & Hayward also kick more goals than when Bud plays. This is because they have more ball directed at them and the forward entries are spread more evenly between the group.

Didn’t Reid play in the game against Brisbane and is named tonight also ?


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[wolftone57]

Far from disrupting the development of other players, I think Buddy enhances it. He has so much experience, so much to offer. And he's great at sharing what he knows. He's also a fantastic leader and often shows the way on the field in games. There have been many times Buddy has single handedly gotten us over the line (although fortunately not so many in recent times) and he knows what's required. I would think Logan would be thrilled to be able to play with Buddy and when his career is over he'll be grateful not just because of the fanboy thing but because it will have been a tremendous learning opportunity for him.

Nor do I think we need to worry about Buddy disrupting Reid's development opportunities. Reid has reached his peak and is no doubt also appreciative of what Buddy offers. Arguably Amartey and McLean may miss out on opportunities to play seniors and develop but while Bud is offering more and it is unclear what role they will have in our future, I have no problem with that.

As for whether we play two or three key forwards (I'm assuming you're including the second ruck as the third?), I think it's great to have options and both are legitimate.

I understand Ludwig's argument. We go to Buddy far too much. He hinders the development of players just by that stat. We go to him 46% of our forward entries. The next most is Saints King with 24%. That is what I call overkill. we need to stop that. Buddy is great for development in what he can teach young forwards but if they are not getting a game to show what they have learned then it defeats the purpose. If when they do get a game players do not use them, they only use Buddy, them that also defeats the purpose. Buddy still has kudos but just not in 46% doses. Sorry I said 60%, I thought David King said 60%. But looked up stats and it is 46% which is still huge

[wolftone57]

2.35 from 60% - that's some seriously alarming stat. Where does it come from Wolfy?

sorry got that wrong. It should be 46%. I thought I heard David King say 60%. But 46% is still alarming. Seeing other teams go to key forwards less than 25% each

[wolftone57]

Didn’t Reid play in the game against Brisbane and is named tonight also ?


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I see he is there now. But I could have sworn McDonald was named at CHF originally.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

sorry got that wrong. It should be 46%. I thought I heard David King say 60%. But 46% is still alarming. Seeing other teams go to key forwards less than 25% each

No problem, it's still double the next highest in King.

3 seasons ago I did a comparison of the Swans scoring with and without Buddy, even back then we were only 7 points better off with him in the team - and todays Buddy has only a fading resemblance to the payer he was then. Let him have a wonderful season making 23rd man cameo appearances for the fans, but let Logan have the time he needs to form combinations and come out of Buddy's humungous shadow.

[Jimitron5000]

Given Buddy has a gravitational pull stronger than some planets, it's difficult for teammates to go for other options when he is there but they must.
He will still be matched up on by a good defender but his role now has to change and this will include taking defenders away from the ball and allowing McDonald/Heeney/Hayward/Papley/Reid etc more opportunities.

[Auntie.Gerald]

There are a lot of layers to the advantage for Bud or the disadvantage of Bud depending how you unpick it..

The thing that surprises me re this argument is that the same people that vouch for our recruitment strategy being superior to any other team don't believe the same swans coaching department have got it wrong with Bud for 2023 which is part of that strategy!

I mean Bud was contracted for 2023 as part of our recruitment strategy that has always appeared sacred and untouchable by many. Almost not allowed to be questioned nor compared ????????

...

Switching gears back to the specific Bud convo:

When Heeney, Reid, Logan, Will etc are playing on inferior defenders due to a 75yr old 50 goal 2022 CHF (Bud) draggiing one of... if not the best defender with him........well.......this is so inclusive to development of all.

Imagine if Bud wasn't around and Logan was literally covered every million second of the game by the best defender in the team?? Nightmare for Logans development and brutal for us to shape our defence against turnover fast rebound attack....ahhhhhhhhhh coaches nightmare.

I can't see how the team is worse with Bud nor the development pathway for our forwards is worse?

The guy kicked 50 goals last year

He drags absolutely gun defending players away from the contest into no man's land which is invaluable. We all no the best defenders do not leave their area of control willingly unless on a Buddy Franklin. Advantage Swans !!!!

He kicks like no one else and kicks goals like no one else willingly from the arc which is also an opposition nightmare.

He creates scoreboard pressure when it counts most. I mean when we look at a serious amount of his goals... they rarely can be executed reliably at distance on the run by anyone else and would lead to a turnover by most others at 55m out.

Exciting and not causing turnovers is the name of the game and crucial to build pressure on the opposition. It forces the opposition to shape their defence differently which also allows our others forward to infiltrate and collect goals and or lock it in to force opposition turnovers and go again.

Time will tell but Bud had so much utility still for the functioning and combined execution of our forward line in 2022.

To me if we could NOT get another 50 goals from a key firward recruit .......it was simply an obvious continuation of magnificent forward strategy that seriously helps our success ???? ????

[Ruck'n'Roll]

He drags absolutely gun defending players away from the contest into no man's land which is invaluable.

I certainly saw something that resembled what you describe in the 2nd half of the Melbourne final, when he took May out of the game - but I can't think of many other occasions.
The statistic that we're kicking it to him 46% of the time, may suggest it can't be that frequent an occurance as you think.

And the taking the best defender arguement is starting to look a little thin, Buddy isn't always getting the best defender - let alone the 3,4 or 5 claimed in his hayday.

I'm also unsure of the importance of what defender you get if Bud's presence ensures you're like the unpopular kid in Ozkick that waves his arms about and cries "kick-it-to-me" all game - and noone ever does.