2025 List Management

[UUaswan]

Like all Swans supporters i'm keeping my fingers crossed Chad re-signs. My biggesr fear is that if he decides to be traded to WC and we find ourselves in similar position again as with Dawson & Adelaide, forced to accept unders in trade if WC (as predicted by many) finish near the bottom.

IMO he is worth minimum 2 x top10 picks, in comparing to trades of recent years.

Chad is NOT a FA, so i can't understand why we can't play between WC & Freo if he decides to head back West. It just seems like all players in this position are FA regardless.

I recall when Adam Simpson stepped down last year, he made comment of receiving messages from players wanting to play with Harley Reid. Hope Chad wasn't one of them!

My nerves are starting to show, but can't let it distract. Buddy & Gary Ablett Jr all left in their prime, but their respective clubs still went on to win flags without them.

FWIW, Kane thinks it's a done deal Chad is heading back home. Starts at 5:38 time stamp:

https://youtu.be/jaG2Mi1N6VU?si=I-8mkw0J8P0zfTbH

Went to an Ablett Player's night and he told the story that he went to Geelong for a contract extension and they told him to come back next year in his final year and we will sort it then.

He had no intention of leaving and said he never even looked at GC offers until time went by and his manager said you really need to look at this then he decided to leave

[dejavoodoo44]

A very interesting and tricky trade period and ND awaits us this year.

It will drive us nuts all season, Chad Warner is obviously the big one, staying or going? If it's going then we look at what might be coming back our way. Freo expected to advance up the ladder won't have any useful picks. WCE have their own and Hawthorn's firsts and seconds. Death ride these teams this season!

We have only got a standard set of picks, what pick numbers depend on our finishing position and the dilution of position by generous FA compo picks.

This draft also sees a much too late and much changed landscape for matching bids on academy, NGA and F/S. Matching discount has been halved to 10% and the points table savagely slimmed down. The days of getting a Daicos, JUH, Ashcroft x 2, GC big haul for a bag of junk picks is over. The changes are unfortunately timed for us we appear to have three strong academy draftees available to us in this year's ND.

Murdoch press recently did a two page spread of 25 draftees to watch this year.Much can change between now and draft day with players rising, falling and bolting in the rankings.There will be plenty of squealing about northern academies from the Vic clubs again this year.

Gold Coast have three highlighted including potential top picks Zeke Uwland and Beau Addinsall, the third being Kalani White who can also go F/S to Melbourne, son of Jeff White.

Brisbane have highly rated Daniel Annable in their academy.

Swans have three mentioned, who I'm sure most of us have heard of and some may have seen in action. A shortened version of their write ups

Lachlan Carmichael, 183cm defender - Composed interceptor, strong overhead, good decision maker, leadership. Had four good games as a bottom ager for the Allies, shone in the U17 futures game

Noah Chamberlain, 192cm fwd - athletic left footer, works hard, presents well, strong overhead mark.

Max King, 191cm mid - speed, agility, endurance. Played 12 senior games for Cardiff (Heeney's club) taking big marks and kicked 30 goals. Has had some injuries

Problems and opportunities at this years draft, depending on how well these three progress and where they ultimately sit in draft rankings and most importantly which round, they attract a bid. Someone may know this, what are the restrictions on matching bids if you finish in the top eight? Will we have enough points to match? If Chad goes and we have a high draft pick from WC, could we sneak an open draft player at the pointy end before having to match an academy bid?

So many moving parts - Only ten months to go folks

Good that you mentioned our academy prospects. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on how they progress. They all have first round potential, with King probably the most intriguing. Something of a freak athlete, who can play multiple positions, but had an injury interrupted season, including a couple of concussions. More injuries and he could slip off the radar. Injury free season and he probably goes top ten, after mutterings about the next Bont.

And those three could be the silver lining if Chad goes. With the AFL screwing us over in regards to bid matching, we currently can only afford one of them if they go high, and the rest of our draft being reduced to a couple late picks. If Chad goes and we get a couple of first round picks, we can then get all three. So, if they look like reaching their potential, it could be a good trade off?

But of course, I don't really like the idea of trading out star players, just to get access to the academy players that we've spent a lot of time and money developing. Especially when it looks like it will again be demonstrated, that we too suffer from the so-called, go home factor.

[Thunder Shaker]

There will be plenty of squealing about northern academies from the Vic clubs again this year.

Collingwood would be mysteriously silent. Carlton wouldn't make much noise, neither would the Bulldogs. All three clubs have benefited from Sydney's Academies, either directly (they recruited players from Sydney's Academy) or indirectly (the Bulldogs recruited a Sydney father-son player who would not have been available without the Swans' Academy).

It wouldn't surprise me if these clubs still squealed anyway, despite receiving benefits. Reducing the discount to 10% won't be good enough for them.

The Victorian clubs will be very silent on the farcical free agency system. Victorian clubs have benefited more from free agency than non-Victorian clubs.

Free agency players come with a 100% discount on draft picks. There is little to stop a club from going on a giant raid of free agents except available salary cap space. Abuse of similar rules has happened before: after the then-VFL introduced the 10-year rule in 1973, North Melbourne interviewed all 22 eligible players within days of the rule coming into effect and recruited three of them.

The 16 clubs not involved in a free agency deal lose out by having their draft picks diluted, which becomes more crucial with the reduction in the points table for draft picks. A "free" compensation pick in the first round can take over 2000 points away from all clubs.

Someone here posted the idea that free agents should go through the draft like all other players, and be subject to similar matching rules as Academy and father-son players. When the free agent is bid on, the destination club gets to match the bid or pass, the player's original club gets the next pick. This would protect the value of draft picks by forcing the recipients of free agents to pay for them with draft picks.

[dejavoodoo44]

Collingwood would be mysteriously silent. Carlton wouldn't make much noise, neither would the Bulldogs. All three clubs have benefited from Sydney's Academies, either directly (they recruited players from Sydney's Academy) or indirectly (the Bulldogs recruited a Sydney father-son player who would not have been available without the Swans' Academy).

It wouldn't surprise me if these clubs still squealed anyway, despite receiving benefits. Reducing the discount to 10% won't be good enough for them.

The Victorian clubs will be very silent on the farcical free agency system. Victorian clubs have benefited more from free agency than non-Victorian clubs.

Free agency players come with a 100% discount on draft picks. There is little to stop a club from going on a giant raid of free agents except available salary cap space. Abuse of similar rules has happened before: after the then-VFL introduced the 10-year rule in 1973, North Melbourne interviewed all 22 eligible players within days of the rule coming into effect and recruited three of them.

The 16 clubs not involved in a free agency deal lose out by having their draft picks diluted, which becomes more crucial with the reduction in the points table for draft picks. A "free" compensation pick in the first round can take over 2000 points away from all clubs.

Someone here posted the idea that free agents should go through the draft like all other players, and be subject to similar matching rules as Academy and father-son players. When the free agent is bid on, the destination club gets to match the bid or pass, the player's original club gets the next pick. This would protect the value of draft picks by forcing the recipients of free agents to pay for them with draft picks.

Well, if they have to go through the draft, the AFL will have to think of something else to call them, because they won't be free agents.

[dejavoodoo44]

Just watched Errol’s interview- he is very articulate and an intelligent, likeable young man. Didn’t give too much away re Chad but obviously all the team would want him to stay with us- but Chad has to decide what’s best for him in the longer term. Buying a house in Perth doesn’t necessarily mean he intends to live there in the near future as in any case it is a sound investment at the reported price.

As his current contract runs down, all the club can do is offer the best deal it can and then leave it up to the player, and hope he accepts. As much as we all love him and he is so important to the team, we support the club no matter who plays for us. I can understand players moving if they are not getting opportunity at their current club but the “go home factor” shouldn’t come into the calculation in a professional sport, unless the $s are significantly different. In Chad’s case, I wouldn’t expect this but of course I could be wrong. I don’t think we we will know until the end of the season unless he decides to re-sign soon.

Yes, I think Errol's in for a big season. He seems determined that the grand final humiliation won't happen again, and therefore, plenty of opponents will suffer along the way. And it's sort of strange, how I have it in my head, that he had a slightly down year. When in fact, he was an All Australian again and finished second in the Bob Skilton.

[Thunder Shaker]

Like all Swans supporters i'm keeping my fingers crossed Chad re-signs. My biggesr fear is that if he decides to be traded to WC and we find ourselves in similar position again as with Dawson & Adelaide, forced to accept unders in trade if WC (as predicted by many) finish near the bottom.

IMO he is worth minimum 2 x top10 picks, in comparing to trades of recent years.

I really hope Warner stays, but the signs suggest otherwise: the purchase of a house in Perth and West Coast's acquisition of future picks in the 2024 trade period.

Suppose Warner chooses to leave. West Coast will not finish low enough for them to force a deal for unders and the circumstances are wrong. Warner would want to go to WA specifically, so an equitable trade is more likely.

For comparison, here are some recent trades:
* West Coast's trade for Tim Kelly (2019): West Coast gave up pick 14, pick 24, pick 37 and a future first-round pick. West Coast received Tim Kelly, pick 57 and a future third-round selection. This worked out to be roughly equivalent to pick 2.
* Geelong's trade for Jeremy Cameron (2020): pick 13, pick 15, pick 20 and a future fourth-round selection. Geelong received Jeremy Cameron and two future second-round selections, one tied to Essendon.

West Coast have at their disposal a significant hand of 2025 picks: first round (WC), first round (Hawthorn), second round (WC), second round (Hawthorn), third round (Hawthorn). They also have future picks from 2026 that would be available to trade.

Sydney will need later draft picks to match bids on up to three Academy players. It's possible that West Coast do not actually give up "2 x top10 picks". I can see such a deal including West Coast's two first-round picks (Hawthorn's won't be a top 10 pick) plus some of the later picks that West Coast currently holds. So the deal may be equivalent to two top-10 picks, but in overall points value, not actual picks.

[KSAS]

Informative post TS on how we may receive points that equate to 2 x 10 picks in light of the three Academy players. Thanks.

Despite his house purchase & golfing with Don Pyke, i still hold out hope Chad may sign a 2 year contract that will take him to FA whilst we're in premiership window, as WC won't be for a while you'd think. He wouldn't want to regret making the move too early.

Don't think Freo have the cap space & draft capital to compete with WC, even though i would like to see a biddng war between the two should Chad decide to make his move at year's end.

If he does so, it should free up our cap space considerably. Wouldn't mine seeing us trying to lure someone like Petracca, whom i've heard from an inside source will be a seeking move at year's end (but will need to trade being contracted) or even the Bont as FA. Either way, replace Chad with an elite player whilst we're in window.

[imuninformedtwo]

Yes, I think Errol's in for a big season. He seems determined that the grand final humiliation won't happen again, and therefore, plenty of opponents will suffer along the way. And it's sort of strange, how I have it in my head, that he had a slightly down year. When in fact, he was an All Australian again and finished second in the Bob Skilton.

I hope so. And I don't want to single him out, as he was hardly Robinson Crusoe - but the image of the grand final that is most strongly seared into my brain was during the second quarter on the outer wing, when Errol - barely in a trot - was waving to Robbie Fox to cover the man he'd just let run past him, when Fox was already trying to cover the first bloke Errol had let run past him. The stuff of nightmares.

[Auntie.Gerald]

no doubt Reid, Ginbey and Warner would be a mid rotation to build around

Ginbey urinating in public

Reid offered massive opportunities to move back to Vic

Aint going to be easy for WCE to get Warner to really really want to go unless for family and or a deal so significant that Sydney can not match

Reid Warner will be fascinating theatre in the media next 6 months

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/west-coast-eagles/afl-2024-harley-reid-contract-latest-victorian-club-offers-18-million-over-10-years-west-coast-eagles-could-need-to-offer-him-2-million-in-his-fourth-year-trade-news-rumours-whispers/news-story/3f568cb68707beb06d5116ff5ade51a6

[UUaswan]

Match Sim today

If Tom Mc is the forward, someone please tell me who is defending?

Would have thought he was the most valuable player to the team as a Defender

[Dow]

Match Sim today

If Tom Mc is the forward, someone please tell me who is defending?

Would have thought he was the most valuable player to the team as a Defender

Hoping Edwards makes the jump this year ! has the body type and has an amassing boot (love watching it in the 2s) We are desperate for a quality fwd and he may be the solution.

[dejavoodoo44]

I hope so. And I don't want to single him out, as he was hardly Robinson Crusoe - but the image of the grand final that is most strongly seared into my brain was during the second quarter on the outer wing, when Errol - barely in a trot - was waving to Robbie Fox to cover the man he'd just let run past him, when Fox was already trying to cover the first bloke Errol had let run past him. The stuff of nightmares.

I still haven't braved watching the replay yet. I suppose that I intend doing so, because I don't think that I've wiped the recording.

Ah, it'd be nice to have another grand final like 2005, where I think that I watched the last quarter about forty times during the off-season and still found it exciting.

[dejavoodoo44]

Hoping Edwards makes the jump this year ! has the body type and has an amassing boot (love watching it in the 2s) We are desperate for a quality fwd and he may be the solution.

I also like Edwards as a prospect, but I think that he's still in the rehab group, after breaking his fibula late last season. So, it mightn't be until late in the season, that he starts pushing for a spot in the side.

[stevoswan]

A new thread for the new year's list management discussion.

Not yet enthused yet about the season after the grand final let down, and then Horse retiring, but hoping the passion comes back, and I get to experience a third premiership before my time is up.

Some may remember, I shared some time ago, about having stage four cancer at (now) the age of age 52. The treatment hasn't worked unfortunately, and like that game in the Gabba, the lights have gone out part way in my third quarter, and I am playing a shortened 4th ;/.

There are some other treatment options left, each one less likely to succeed statistically, but there is still some hope for extra time. Anyway, hoping this year will bring some joy to all of us supporters, and now you will also know why I may stop suddenly starting the weekly match selection list threads

I've been off the site for a couple of months, needed a rest, couldn't help offending some people but seriously mate, this is a real sad start to this thread.

I sincerely hope things turn around for you and that the Swannies can add some much needed joy to your life and those around you. All the best.

[stevoswan]

I still haven't braved watching the replay yet. I suppose that I intend doing so, because I don't think that I've wiped the recording.

Ah, it'd be nice to have another grand final like 2005, where I think that I watched the last quarter about forty times during the off-season and still found it exciting.

I'll never watch it.....ever, or the 2022 GF. They're in the same pile as the 2016 GF. I'm not a masochist.