List changes and trade bait

[liz]

Is Craig Bird essential in 2015? Will an early to mid 2nd round pick and some salary cap relief be a better option?

Is Craig Bird essential? By that, I take it to mean is the side capable of winning a premiership without him? The answer is more likely to be "no, he is not essential in that sense".

Is the squad far stronger with Bird than with an 18 year old who will quite likely never play a senior game for the club? The answer to that question is self-evident.

Is Bird a highly versatile and dependable player who the coaches appear to see as an automatic selection in the senior side? Is he therefore highly valuable? Yes.

Do we even have salary cap pressure? I suspect it is a BF beat up. If the reason we the club has been banned from trading is that the AFL thought we were trying to be a bit cute and sign a free agent, I propose that the answer is 'almost certainly not".

How would trading Bird help in the quest to secure the Next Big Thing (Petracca)? No idea. Unless we package up the draft pick some club might trade for Bird, with Biggs, BJ, Derrickx and Laidler and hope the Saints are feeling generous...

[Ludwig]

Is Craig Bird essential in 2015? Will an early to mid 2nd round pick and some salary cap relief be a better option?

I am going to read off some names to you: Tony Notte, Addam Maric, Scott Selwood, Tayte Pears, Clayton Hinkley, Tom Collier, Brett Meredith, Andy Otten, Marvin Motlop, Brendan Whitecross, Jarrham Jacky.

If all the names don't quite ring a bell, they are draft picks 20 to 30 from the 2007 draft that produced Craig Bird. Only the 4 highlighted of the 11 are still playing AFL and only one, Selwood, you would say is a walk up regular for his club. I don't know how many you would rate higher than Bird.

The question is: If you had a Bird in the hand, would you trade it for picking a random name out of this bush?

I think this a realistic evaluation of your proposal.

[Cardinal]

Hi guys, I've been bush for a couple of weeks living off the land without any modern communications. What the news? Seems like we lost Malcheski, have we traded anyone in to replace hime?

Yep a Bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. No way should the Swans trade players who can contribute to a potential flag now for draft picks that may or may not lead to us being hypothetically stronger in the future. Make hay while the sun shines.

[Meg]

"The Saints are increasingly likely to secure Sydney forward Tim Membrey for free in December?s pre-season draft."

AFL clubs lining up to secure no. 1 draft pick for explosive midfielder Christian Petracca

[Flying South]

Let's build the next Dynasty

He may well turn out to be a good player, but I fail to see how picking up one player can build a dynasty.

Of the the top 20 players named in this years Brownlow, MVP and Coaches award combined, there is not a single number 1 draft pick. In fact 9 were 1st round, 5 were 2nd round, 2 were 3rd round, 1 was 4th round, 1 was 5th round, 1 was pre-season draft and 1 was rookie draft. Goes to show more than 50% of elite players go outside the 1st round of the national draft

We don't need a midfielder. Identify our weaknesses and draft accordingly.

[Matt80]

He may well turn out to be a good player, but I fail to see how picking up one player can build a dynasty.

Of the the top 20 players named in this years Brownlow, MVP and Coaches award combined, there is not a single number 1 draft pick. In fact 9 were 1st round, 5 were 2nd round, 2 were 3rd round, 1 was 4th round, 1 was 5th round, 1 was pre-season draft and 1 was rookie draft. Goes to show more than 50% of elite players go outside the 1st round of the national draft

We don't need a midfielder. Identify our weaknesses and draft accordingly.

9 out of 20 is very significant. Drafting usually goes to half way through the 4th round. There is not a lot of elite talent in rounds three and four.

I understand all arguments on the Craig Bird retention. I only fear that if there are no serious midfield injuries and Tom Mitchell makes a move, then Bird will spend a lot of the season in the NEAFL. I don't think this is an unreasonable projection.

If he spends a lot of time in the NEAFL then he may request a trade and be valued at a low third round pick. If he stays on one extra season and exercises free agency, then the compensation will be minimal to nothing.

With his spot going to be under increasing pressure from Mitchell is it not better to get some trade value now, particularly when there may be a decent KPD prospect in the 20s.

It's my opinion that you can't have good AFL footballers being depth players in the NEAFL. It's bad for both the players career and the tradable value the club has on that player. The NEAFL should be used for young players such as Hewitt, Jones and Heeney and they should be backed to step up to senior football when there are midfield outs.

[southsideswan]

"There is not a lot of elite talent in rounds three and four." This is probably true to a degree. the exception is Matt Priddis ... not only was he not "good enough" to be picked up in rounds 3 or 4 .. he was passed over 3 times by every club. Same could be said, and of course a lesser degree with Jake Lloyd. I think talent scouts really have to spend a lot of time on the ground talking to Clubs. The gold is still out there at this stage of picks just got to dig a little deeper.

[Ampersand]

9 out of 20 is very significant. Drafting usually goes to half way through the 4th round. There is not a lot of elite talent in rounds three and four.

I understand all arguments on the Craig Bird retention. I only fear that if there are no serious midfield injuries and Tom Mitchell makes a move, then Bird will spend a lot of the season in the NEAFL. I don't think this is an unreasonable projection.

If he spends a lot of time in the NEAFL then he may request a trade and be valued at a low third round pick. If he stays on one extra season and exercises free agency, then the compensation will be minimal to nothing.

With his spot going to be under increasing pressure from Mitchell is it not better to get some trade value now, particularly when there may be a decent KPD prospect in the 20s.

It's my opinion that you can't have good AFL footballers being depth players in the NEAFL. It's bad for both the players career and the tradable value the club has on that player. The NEAFL should be used for young players such as Hewitt, Jones and Heeney and they should be backed to step up to senior football when there are midfield outs.

Why would Bird be out? The most likely scenario is that McVeigh would move out of the midfield to half back opening up a spot for Mitchell.

Even if your theory about Longmire only ever playing "three slower inside mids" was true - which I don't concede - you are aware that some players actually start on the bench and the midfield mix changes constantly throughout the game?

[Conor_Dillon]

Tom Boyd to the Bulldogs...this trade period has been ridiculous.

[Ampersand]

At this stage, knowing Longmire and assuming no injuries over the off season, my guess is that in 2015 Round 1 the ins and outs from the Grand Final will be:

In: Mitchell
Out: Malceski

That's it. I hope there will be some structural changes but other than that I don't see much movement of personnel at least in the early rounds.

[Ampersand]

Tom Boyd to the Bulldogs...this trade period has been ridiculous.

There's no way GWS will let him go. Even as part of the Griffen deal.

Next season is going to be interesting. Seems we'll have a lot of disgruntled players around (Beams, Griffen, Boyd, even Shoenmakers).

[Matt80]

There's no way GWS will let him go. Even as part of the Griffen deal.

Next season is going to be interesting. Seems we'll have a lot of disgruntled players around (Beams, Griffen, Boyd, even Shoenmakers).

Based on what has been happening with other coaches, I wonder if people are going to start pointing the finger at Leon Cameron. Does Tom Boyd not believe in Leon?s vision? Did Leon go too hard in his feedback on Tom?

I think Tom?s mind started racing once he saw that Griffin wanted to come to the GWS? He knew that this would be his ticket back to Victoria one year early. He inserted himself into the transaction and said ?trade me; I want to be in on this deal?.

Boyd has a huge chance to make so much more money in 2015 as a result of the transaction. The Bulldogs will offer him $500,000 - $700,000 a year over many years. He would be on a base two year draftee salary at the Giants and has not signed another deal GWS.

If you had the opportunity to make an extra $400,000 in 2015, would you take it?

Unfortunately our trade period is only about whether we can upgrade our 3rd round pick for Membrey and Biggs. I feel underwhelmed by the Swans trade period. All my ideas have fallen on death ears. There is three days to go. What next?

[Melbournehammer]

Based on what has been happening with other coaches, I wonder if people are going to start pointing the finger at Leon Cameron. Does Tom Boyd not believe in Leon?s vision? Did Leon go too hard in his feedback on Tom?

I think Tom?s mind started racing once he saw that Griffin wanted to come to the GWS? He knew that this would be his ticket back to Victoria one year early. He inserted himself into the transaction and said ?trade me; I want to be in on this deal?.

Boyd has a huge chance to make so much more money in 2015 as a result of the transaction. The Bulldogs will offer him $500,000 - $700,000 a year over many years. He would be on a base two year draftee salary at the Giants and has not signed another deal GWS.

If you had the opportunity to make an extra $400,000 in 2015, would you take it?

Unfortunately our trade period is only about whether we can upgrade our 3rd round pick for Membrey and Biggs. I feel underwhelmed by the Swans trade period. All my ideas have fallen on death ears. There is three days to go. What next?

I sure hope not.

[ScottH]

I sure hope not.

[Plugger46]

I sure hope not.

Very good.