Trade target discussion (merged thread)

[Ampersand]

It's not 30 points. It's 545 points. The 30 points is just something free to us without hurting Essendon for dropping down one slot in the draft order since we will be using pick 23 as part of what we will cough up for Mills. The 30 points is no big deal, it's just for free, so why not.

Once we do this kind of trade, i.e. give up pick 14, we are fully committed to Mills, unless we see a bid by Carlton using pick 1 as vexatious.

Okay, apologies, I misunderstood. I still think additional points of a value equivalent to a mid 30s pick is too low for an experienced and contracted 26-year-old player like Bird. He's worth something in the mid to high 20s imo.

[MattW]

Okay, apologies, I misunderstood. I still think additional points of a value equivalent to a mid 30s pick is too low for an experienced and contracted 26-year-old player like Bird. He's worth something in the mid to high 20s imo.

I think mid 30s is about right. I agree with your earlier post about your regret at not seeing 2nd/3rd round 'diamonds in the rough'. I suspect however, that it won't be every year that an Academy player will go first round and we still have an advantage in drafting such a player, as we should.

[Ampersand]

I think mid 30s is about right. I agree with your earlier post about your regret at not seeing 2nd/3rd round 'diamonds in the rough'. I suspect however, that it won't be every year that an Academy player will go first round and we still have an advantage in drafting such a player, as we should.

I guess we value him differently. If Bell from Carlton can get a mid 20s pick equivalent and a lazy, inconsistent player like Yarran is worth 19+ then I don't think mid to early 20s is unreasonable to expect for Bird.

Yes, he's played reserves this year but he'd be easily best 22 at at least 12 clubs in the league.

[robamiee]

too bad we couldnt package dempsey as part of the trade as well...no real firm news about our interest and he is yet to sign with the bombers...

[ugg]

From what I've heard, and this is contrary to what Harley has said in the media, we've been shopping Bird quite hard from Day 1 of the Trade Period and Essendon have only accepted Bird on the proviso we still pay some of his salary for next year.

[Meg]

From what I've heard, and this is contrary to what Harley has said in the media, we've been shopping Bird quite hard from Day 1 of the Trade Period and Essendon have only accepted Bird on the proviso we still pay some of his salary for next year.

If that's true is the trade enough value to the Swans?

[Ludwig]

From what I've heard, and this is contrary to what Harley has said in the media, we've been shopping Bird quite hard from Day 1 of the Trade Period and Essendon have only accepted Bird on the proviso we still pay some of his salary for next year.

Yeah, probably the COLA portion. Will help pay the legal bills.

[Mug Punter]

From what I've heard, and this is contrary to what Harley has said in the media, we've been shopping Bird quite hard from Day 1 of the Trade Period and Essendon have only accepted Bird on the proviso we still pay some of his salary for next year.

Fair enough, it makes sense of what on the face of it is a fairly generous offer from Essendon for a 27 year old. And it does the right thing by Craig too in allowing him to extend his senior footy career.

I think it is quite a good deal for us - combined with how much of Pyke's salary we save (less any payout) and whatever we save on Bird for 2016 we should be able to comfortably be able to afford Talia's salary and with the extra points perhaps we can avoid going into deficit or trading future picks.

It would be good if we could keep our pick 33 up our sleeve just in case Dunkley goes too early for our liking at there will still be plenty of value there. Will also be interesting to see what we agree for Talia, I wouldn't have thought our third rounder would be enough.

[Mug Punter]

If that's true is the trade enough value to the Swans?

I think so, we get an extra 500+ points plus a large portion of salary cap space. The points will hopefully see us get all our trading done with 2015 currency and avoid any future picks or deficit points.

Will be interesting now to see if Robbo or anyone else gets moved on

[Mug Punter]

A look at our trade points and I reckon we won't match any bid for Mills at 1.

It will soak up all our points this year and leave a deficit. We won't be able to afford Dunkley or anyone else and Talia would have to be a future pick so we'd be basically giving ourselves one late first rounder next year.

So Carlton should be extremely careful before making a vexatious bid, I cannot see them being that stupid. You'd trust that neither the Lions or Suns will bid for him so it leaves him at 4 or 5 which is where he should go really

[Ludwig]

A look at our trade points and I reckon we won't match any bid for Mills at 1.

It will soak up all our points this year and leave a deficit. We won't be able to afford Dunkley or anyone else and Talia would have to be a future pick so we'd be basically giving ourselves one late first rounder next year.

So Carlton should be extremely careful before making a vexatious bid, I cannot see them being that stupid. You'd trust that neither the Lions or Suns will bid for him so it leaves him at 4 or 5 which is where he should go really

The problem is that we have to make a decision about Talia or any other potential trade before we know what our situation is regarding the draft. The calculations are very difficult given the huge gap in value points over the range of early picks. A little cooperation from our northern partners and Essendon could see Mills drop to pick 8, which would probably allow us to also get Dunkley and Talia without eating into next year's picks. But of course there are many other scenarios not so accommodating.

I read that Carlton thinks offering pick 21 for all of Sumnier, Phillips, Lamb and Lachie Plowman may be too much. This sounds crazy to me. I would seriously think about offering pick 23, which we might get from Essendon, just for Plowman, who was a pick number 3.

[stellation]

The problem is that we have to make a decision about Talia or any other potential trade before we know what our situation is regarding the draft. The calculations are very difficult given the huge gap in value points over the range of early picks. A little cooperation from our northern partners and Essendon could see Mills drop to pick 8, which would probably allow us to also get Dunkley and Talia without eating into next year's picks. But of course there are many other scenarios not so accommodating.

I read that Carlton thinks offering pick 21 for all of Sumnier, Phillips, Lamb and Lachie Plowman may be too much. This sounds crazy to me. I would seriously think about offering pick 23, which we might get from Essendon, just for Plowman, who was a pick number 3.

Yep, even with those guys not getting a gig it does seem like a bit of a bargain- I know it's part of the brave new business world of footy, but sheesh SOS has clearly just used some inside knowledge there to pick and choose guys. I'm not sure any of them will go on to be world beaters, and they definitely weren't in the GWS best 22, but 3 guys that were first round picks plus a young ruckman for a late first seems to really be paying unders. I'm not sure if they had to reduce their list size this year?

I agree that Plowman is the pick of the bunch and would expect he'd be worth the pick alone, but I believe he wants to move back to Victoria.

[Auntie.Gerald]

i haven't seen enough of Plowman

192cm and 90kg and some have said at draft time he was the next Andrew Mackie ??

[stellation]

Plowman's an interesting prospect, he's got good skills but seems just a smidgen too slow across the ground (not too challenging for forwards to lead away from him) and so far doesn't quite seem to read the play well enough to compensate for it. That said, I'd still be happy to add him to our list if it was possible

[Conor_Dillon]

Surely us paying part of Bird's salary at Essendon would also include a gentleman's agreement that Essendon won't bid pick 4 or 5 on Mills. If he can slip through to the Melbourne pick then it's an absolute steal for us.