Trade target discussion (merged thread)

[ernie koala]

From what I've heard, and this is contrary to what Harley has said in the media, we've been shopping Bird quite hard from Day 1 of the Trade Period and Essendon have only accepted Bird on the proviso we still pay some of his salary for next year.

I read somewhere, the points we'll gain with this trade of Bird are the equivalent of about pick 42...

And if you're correct and we have to pay some of his wage as well ??

For a 26 year old premiership player , multiple top 10 B & F, with 120+ games under his belt...Hmmm

That would seem too cheap to me. I would of thought he'd be worth mid to late 20's...Particularly in what is deemed a shallow draft.

I'm surprised we haven't been able to find a club willing to do a direct trade, of a pick, for him.

[robamiee]

the bidding system in reality is flawed...as we have to figure out our points on draft selections on a hunch of what a club might do re one of our academy boys...so we have to swap picks around etc on the basis someone might bid for Mills at an early stage..and the clubs know that he will come to us and only put the bid to get rid of our 2nd rnd selection..it should be the club that bids for that player loses that round selection as well if we have to give that up based on the points to stop dummy bids...
2nd rnd picks are sometime just as if not more important...

[rb4x]

I do not understand the new bidding system that well but is the following scenario possible. Say pick 5 St Kilda bid for Mills. We match. They then bid for Hopper. GWS match. They then bid for Kennedy. GWS match. They then bid for Hipwood. Brisbane match. They then bid for Keays. Brisbane again match. They then take someone like Parish who was their likely original target. St Kilda get who they want and in the process have completely stuffed three clubs with academy players at no cost to themselves. The only risk is that a club does not match a bid but St kilda are not really hurt as they get a class player anyway.

[Conor_Dillon]

Bird officially a bomber.

We lose Bird + 14
We gain 23 + 44.

Given how much worse off that is than the original proposed trade you'd surely think that Essendon won't be bidding on Mills.

[robamiee]

that is possible hence the flawed nature....Maybe clubs should nominate if they intend to bid on a player before trade week and the rnd selection they intend to bid...so the academy clubs are not hamstrung in their approach

- - - Updated - - -

thats a crap trade....

[Conor_Dillon]

We are only 16 points better off...basically giving Bird away for free

Pick 14 is worth 1161

Pick 23 (815) and 44 (362) = 1177.

Really strange trade, unless we really are 100% sure that Gold Coast won't bid at 3 and Essendon won't bid at 4 or 5.

Surely we're not paying any of his salary, either.

[ugg]

We are only 16 points better off...basically giving Bird away for free

Paging Ampersand...

[undy]

I read somewhere, the points we'll gain with this trade of Bird are the equivalent of about pick 42...

And if you're correct and we have to pay some of his wage as well ??

For a 26 year old premiership player , multiple top 10 B & F, with 120+ games under his belt...Hmmm

That would seem too cheap to me. I would of thought he'd be worth mid to late 20's...Particularly in what is deemed a shallow draft.

I'm surprised we haven't been able to find a club willing to do a direct trade, of a pick, for him.

18 teams in the comp. Average playing career length (say) 10 years.
So pick 42 in a draft rates a player as being at (extremely roughly) ranking (42*10)/18 = 23 on the average list.

That's a bit low, I agree. Would have thought about 16 - 20th would be more like it.... Pick 28 - 36.

[Conor_Dillon]

Paging Ampersand...

I think the above maths is right...maybe - like some on BigFooty have suggested - we will trade 23 with West Coast for a couple of picks in the late 30's?

- - - Updated - - -

18 teams in the comp. Average playing career length (say) 10 years.
So pick 42 in a draft rates a player as being at (extremely roughly) ranking (42*10)/18 = 23 on the average list.

That's a bit low, I agree. Would have thought about 16 - 20th would be more like it.... Pick 28 - 36.

By the points system, we have effectively valued Bird at pick 72...seems very strange. No doubt the AFL will be sniffing around.

[Conor_Dillon]

Or...maybe the Bombers have agreed to delist Dempsey which would allow him to come to us as a DFA...rather than being forced to trade for him or risk missing him the PSD?

[Conor_Dillon]

Further conspiracy theory...Essendon agreed to bid on both Hopper AND Kennedy at pick 5, effectively meaning Mills can't be bid on before pick 8...

[707]

If there are no gentleman's agreements to do or not do other things then this is one of the worse trades possible. We have given a much needed depth player to Essendon for the equivelant of pick 72.

We are only winners if no one bids on Mills until Melbourne and someone bids on Hopper before Mills. Mills would then drift out to pick 7. Wondering if Dempsey is also in play but if he was they just would have added him to the trade. Or maybe we can get WCE two late 30s for pick 23 for a handful of extra points.

Not happy in a big way. Not happy at all!

[Levii3]

Dodoro On Bird: "We had an interest in him and that grew in recent days when (new coach) John Worsfold expressed a desire to get him. He brings a lot of Sydney intellectual property as well."

My dislike for Essendon continues..

[Conor_Dillon]

Melbourne have just traded for pick 3...would be absolutely shocked if Roos doesn't bid 3 on Mills.

All above theories officially out the window

[Swansinger]

Best of luck to Craig Bird ! Valuable member of our last premiership year and a smashing young chap.