Trade target discussion (merged thread)

[Ludwig]

A bid for Mills at 1 or 2 is clearly a vexatious bid and should not be matched. We have to set a precedent that we are not willing to give up everything just because someone is an academy player. If we matched a bid 1, we would give up all of our draft picks this year and move to the end of the draft plus have our first round pick from next year downgraded substantially. Even matching pick 2 might put us into deficit. That's insanity. 5 draft picks for one player. This was the McGuire-Fitzpatrick plan to turn the knife into the guts of the Swans. I wouldn't play their game.

I can see matching pick 3 and lower, but not automatically. It is worth assessing who makes the bid and whether Mills would request a homesick trade after his contract is up. A homesick trade usually doesn't go beyond a first rounder for a second year player. Given that it's known that Mills wants to play for Sydney, I think he should go for our 1st round pick alone, which would equate to matching pick 9. So I wouldn't automatically match picks 3 to 8. I also don't think it would hurt to let this strategy leak out so that clubs know that bidding for Mills will likely entail losing him after a year or 2, thereby being a waste of a pick. As Liz says, signalling is important. We need to establish that we can play this homesick game as well when it comes to our academy players. It could go a long way to add value to our drafting for years to come.

Like with the Giants and Cam McCarthy, as well as Aish with Brisbane, these clubs need to hold firm and not get steamrolled into losing their top talent. Why should it always be the northern clubs that lose out with their top picks. It's time to turn the tables. I don't know what will happen with these players, but it seems for now that the Giants are not letting go of Cam. If Brisbane let Aish walk to the draft it puts the ball in the court of the AFL. It signals that Brisbane will allow itself to become a permanent liability to the league unless it steps in and stops the relentless flow of talent out of the Queensland clubs which makes a mockery of the their beloved draft equalisation.

Daniel Rioli is likely to be around at pick 14. We can get him and Mills in 2 years time on the rebound and have plenty to spare for Josh Dunkley. That doesn't sound all that bad to me.

[6'2, 220, 4.53]

Mills will go at for at 4 or 5.

Carlton need a key position player. Bolton is too smart to play Russian Roulette to screw the Swans.

Brisbane and the Suns would be foolish to bid for our Academy kids. The Academy clubs must stick together.

At pick 4 and 5 you will have Essendon or St Kilda. Those two clubs can both use a good inside midfielder.

[liz]

I think banking on a homesick Mills wanting to return in two years is folly. He comes across as a highly intelligent, professional young man, and once he is set at which ever club he lands at, there is every chance he will settle down there. Sure, in time, an increased percentage of players originating from NSW might balance out the "returning home" factor but I don't think you can rely on it for a specific player.

Matching a bid for Mills - or not - has to be made on a dispassionate assessment of assembling a list. Is he worth whatever pick is bid for him, based on the current and future make-up of the list, other recruitment needs, and who the alternatives are. None of us can make this assessment. We need to rely on Beatson and his team to make the assessments unemotionally. I have every confidence he will, and that the club will allow him to, without any undue pressure to recruit the local boy, regardless of cost.

No doubt he will take into the account the relative strengths of the list, and the areas we need to recruit to fill not just this year but in the next couple of years too. The reality is that, while top quality players are highly valuable, regardless of position, mid-paced inside midfielders probably should be our lowest recruitment priority at the moment, given the state of the list. It's a shame, in some ways, that both Dunkley and Mills fall into this category.

As a general observation on our academy production line - and it is early days yet - it seems to be doing reasonably well in identifying and attracting medium sized midfielders but there's not been a huge amount of variety on show. I am not referring just to those good enough to be in draft contention, but even those at the next level down, the group who have got chances to play with the NEAFL team. There are a couple of tall players the club has nominated this year, but they are far from assured of a spot on even the rookie list. Sure, they take longer to develop, so 18 year old talls are less likely to be thrust into the NEAFL than their smaller counterparts. But when you compare to Brisbane, who have found Hipwood and Andrews (and a few at a level down), our academy output looks pretty homogeneous. The academies are about development programmes, but they are also about trying to improve AFL's ability to compete with the other major sporting codes for the best talent, and helping to retain that within an AFL development path. I can't believe there is less tall athletic talent in Sydney's zone than in Brisbane's (or GWS') but the Swans don't yet seem to be doing as well to attract and/or retain and/or develop that talent.

[707]

Callum Twomey's latest Phantom Draft up on the AFL website. Good news is Dunkley at pick 21 and a heap below him that read glowingly.

GWS with their burgeoning talent and current and future ability to keep turning over players into high draft picks must be a worry for all clubs. Forget about nobbling us, start nobbling GWS before that juggernaught steamrolls everyone for a few years. If I was Essendon and St.Kilda, I'd bid Hopper and Kennedy before Mills. We can only hope.

Still think we need more points to comfortably get Mills and Dunks.

Liz, I like your post above, well thought through and I agree.

[6'2, 220, 4.53]

I think banking on a homesick Mills wanting to return in two years is folly. He comes across as a highly intelligent, professional young man, and once he is set at which ever club he lands at, there is every chance he will settle down there. Sure, in time, an increased percentage of players originating from NSW might balance out the "returning home" factor but I don't think you can rely on it for a specific player.

Matching a bid for Mills - or not - has to be made on a dispassionate assessment of assembling a list. Is he worth whatever pick is bid for him, based on the current and future make-up of the list, other recruitment needs, and who the alternatives are. None of us can make this assessment. We need to rely on Beatson and his team to make the assessments unemotionally. I have every confidence he will, and that the club will allow him to, without any undue pressure to recruit the local boy, regardless of cost.

No doubt he will take into the account the relative strengths of the list, and the areas we need to recruit to fill not just this year but in the next couple of years too. The reality is that, while top quality players are highly valuable, regardless of position, mid-paced inside midfielders probably should be our lowest recruitment priority at the moment, given the state of the list. It's a shame, in some ways, that both Dunkley and Mills fall into this category.

As a general observation on our academy production line - and it is early days yet - it seems to be doing reasonably well in identifying and attracting medium sized midfielders but there's not been a huge amount of variety on show. I am not referring just to those good enough to be in draft contention, but even those at the next level down, the group who have got chances to play with the NEAFL team. There are a couple of tall players the club has nominated this year, but they are far from assured of a spot on even the rookie list. Sure, they take longer to develop, so 18 year old talls are less likely to be thrust into the NEAFL than their smaller counterparts. But when you compare to Brisbane, who have found Hipwood and Andrews (and a few at a level down), our academy output looks pretty homogeneous. The academies are about development programmes, but they are also about trying to improve AFL's ability to compete with the other major sporting codes for the best talent, and helping to retain that within an AFL development path. I can't believe there is less tall athletic talent in Sydney's zone than in Brisbane's (or GWS') but the Swans don't yet seem to be doing as well to attract and/or retain and/or develop that talent.

Superb Liz.

At the end of next year, does anyone think we should trade Josh Kennedy back to a Victorian club?

He could net us two top 15 picks and with potentially Mills and Dunkley, we have good medium midfielders coming through to pick up the slack.

I would keep Kennedy for 2016, but reassess at the end of 2016.

[0918330512]

Superb Liz.

No offence Liz but, on the back of ...

This is such a brilliant post. Outstanding Mug. Your insights through this whole thread have been "World Class".

Great idea Mug.

no offence to MP either but ...

At the end of next year, does anyone think we should trade Josh Kennedy back to a Victorian club?

I'm sure all those that also wanted to trade Mitchell a couple of seasons ago would entertain this line of reasoning. Course, you're wanting to dump a guy who's a dual Bob Skilton Medalist, dual All Australian, dual top 5 finisher in the Brownlow and premiership player. And you're assuming he wants to go.

He could net us two top 15 picks and with potentially Mills and Dunkley, we have good medium midfielders coming through to pick up the slack.

Bundle him with Parker & Mitchell & you'll probably land a couple of top 10 picks

[Levii3]

At the end of next year, does anyone think we should trade Josh Kennedy back to a Victorian club?

I would keep Kennedy for 2016, but reassess at the end of 2016.

The most insanely stupid idea i've heard even too moronic for big footy... Iam one of the people that suggested the possibly of trading Mitchell but at the end of the day you keep people that want to play for the club because they love doing so and not just for the money. Joey wants to be a swan for life and he will be.

Regarding the Mills discussion he won't be taken pick 1 or 2, 3 maybe a possibility even if he is bid on in the top two we will match it its not every year you have the chance to get player of this quality into your club and swans won't risk him joining a Victorian club and he may end up staying.
Bruest Issac Smith Langford Suckling are NSW boys aswell doubt they'll come back

[goswannies]

The most insanely stupid idea i've heard even too moronic for big footy... Iam one of the people that suggested the possibly of trading Mitchell but at the end of the day you keep people that want to play for the club because they love doing so and not just for the money. Joey wants to be a swan for life and he will be.

I think Dempster & Schneider both wanted to remain Swans at the time

But JPK should stay

[liz]

None taken

I can't fathom why anyone would think of trading Kennedy unless it was at his request. He has repeatedly stated he loves it at Sydney and can't imagine himself anywhere else. As has Parker. And Mitchell showed loyalty and commitment to earn a spot, rather than seek a trade to a club where his passage to senior football might be easier. Actively shop around a stalwart because he might net a couple of first round picks (who probably won't net a player fit to even tie Joey's bootlaces) and you slap every player in the face who expresses their love of the club.

And Joey's far more than just a "stalwart". I think he's still underrated in the competition (as evidenced by his omission from the AA team this year). When you factor in his durability and consistency over six seasons, I believe he's easily one of the top 5 midfielders in the competition. He may not have the eye-catching flair of some, the kind of thing that causes Bruce to start dribbling, but he's been the best performed and most consistent player in a team that has reached two grand finals, has another couple of top two finishes and has never missed the top 8. His style of play means he's probably less susceptible to injury than many players - his size and strength, together with his clear understanding of how best to use them, means he doesn't have to be as kamikaze as players like Parker, Hanners, and Heeney. I predict he'll earn another three or four top 3 BSM finishes before his career is over, and that the Swans will continue to win far more games than they lose on the back of his contributions.

Who in their right mind would contemplate trading that for the chance to recruit more Vezspremis, Johnstons, O'Keefes (of the D variety) or Willoughbies?

[liz]

Regarding the Mills discussion he won't be taken pick 1 or 2, 3 maybe a possibility even if he is bid on in the top two we will match it its not every year you have the chance to get player of this quality into your club and swans won't risk him joining a Victorian club and he may end up staying.
Bruest Issac Smith Langford Suckling are NSW boys aswell doubt they'll come back

While I agree with you regarding Mills and homesickness (as I've already posted), those Hawks players' circumstances are very different to Mills'. Langford is playing for his father's club, one he almost certainly supported growing up. I don't know where Suckling hails from originally but he finished school in Melbourne and had a strong preference to stay there. The Swans offered him a spot on the rookie list (via the old NSW rookie draft concessions) but he turned it down. Smith was playing VFL in Ballarat when he was drafted as a 21 year old. The fact he might have been born marginally north of the border doesn't make him a local Sydney boy.

Bruest, who is the closest thing to a miss by the Swans on that list, isn't from Sydney either. He's a Riverina boy who grew up supporting North. He wouldn't have any particular ties to the Swans, other than the fact he played some reserves games with us.

[6'2, 220, 4.53]

I said it should be a discussion point at the end of 2016.

JPK is pushing into his late 20s. The Swans have had JPKs best years.

How many more of these seasons is he going to produce?

We have Parker, Mitchell and Heeney who are young inside midfield studs. We have potential inside midfield studs to come in Mills and Dunkley.

Why not execute a trade to get some brilliant currency at the trade table either for points, picks or other players. That's not to mention the money saved.

When will Australian sport get over it's obsession of club legends? Players are club assets to be deployed in the best future interest of the organisation.

[WauchopeAnalyst]

JPK would only go to Hawthorn. No other suitors allowed.

[undy]

I said it should be a discussion point at the end of 2016.

JPK is pushing into his late 20s. The Swans have had JPKs best years.

How many more of these seasons is he going to produce?

We have Parker, Mitchell and Heeney who are young inside midfield studs. We have potential inside midfield studs to come in Mills and Dunkley.

Why not execute a trade to get some brilliant currency at the trade table either for points, picks or other players. That's not to mention the money saved.

When will Australian sport get over it's obsession of club legends? Players are club assets to be deployed in the best future interest of the organisation.

When they completely lose their way and their integrity.

The fad for remodeling every aspect of society around some (notional) model of corporate behaviour is idiotic and simplistic in the extreme.

[liz]

Players are club assets to be deployed in the best future interest of the organisation.

No they are not. They are young men, with lives and families, employed by a club to play sport, who build relationships with team mates, provide leadership to younger players coming through, and engage with fans and the broader communities.

[MattW]

I said it should be a discussion point at the end of 2016.

JPK is pushing into his late 20s. The Swans have had JPKs best years.

How many more of these seasons is he going to produce?

We have Parker, Mitchell and Heeney who are young inside midfield studs. We have potential inside midfield studs to come in Mills and Dunkley.

Why not execute a trade to get some brilliant currency at the trade table either for points, picks or other players. That's not to mention the money saved.

When will Australian sport get over it's obsession of club legends? Players are club assets to be deployed in the best future interest of the organisation.

This is a cold-blooded view, which I cannot relate to at all. You evidently view the players - humans - as assets, assessing worth by outputs.

You've assessed incorrectly anyway - both in the sense of Joey's output and the best interests of the organisation.

In terms of output, Joey has just had another dominant year - there was no sign that his physical capacity or ambition have tapered at all. If anything, the opposite. He was stiff to miss an All Australian berth, and I reckon he'll be driven to get that spot and another premiership next year. Your assessment that the Swans have 'had his best years' is wrong, in my opinion.

In terms of worth and interests of the organisation, it seems to me that sporting (and professional) success is built on loyalty, commitment, and affection for the people you work with and the organisation itself. Joey is an inspirational player - twice club champion and three-times best finals player. He seems to be a lovely and well-liked guy, has indicated an intention to play out his career at the Swans, and has just started a family. He'll be planning his life here in Sydney. We love cheering him as a Swans player who has contributed what he has and I am sure the players love playing with him. If he was traded out for the sake of a couple of high picks given his contribution to the club so far, players and supporters would be wondering what kind of club this is and whether they want to play here/support it.