Finals

[liz]

There's been a lot of talk in the media about the Swans' resurrection from 0-6 to where we currently sit on the ladder being unprecedented. But there's an article on the AFL website today celebrating the coaching career of Alistair Clarkson that makes note of their 2010 season, where they were 1-6 after seven rounds and went on to win 11 of the next 15 to qualify for the finals. That's not really such a different position to the Swans this season. We just won our first game slightly later in that first seven rounds than the Hawks did.

[Boddo]

There's been a lot of talk in the media about the Swans' resurrection from 0-6 to where we currently sit on the ladder being unprecedented. But there's an article on the AFL website today celebrating the coaching career of Alistair Clarkson that makes note of their 2010 season, where they were 1-6 after seven rounds and went on to win 11 of the next 15 to qualify for the finals. That's not really such a different position to the Swans this season. We just won our first game slightly later in that first seven rounds than the Hawks did.

Agree. There is no difference both clubs were 1-6 after 7 rounds. The pumping up of Clarkson is rediculous some times. Don't get me wrong he's a good coach but not the magician that some make him out to be. Came to a club that nailed their PP then manipulated the deliberate rushed behind to help win in 08, then was lucky enough that his club peaked just as the expansion drafts hit a lot of clubs then was helped considerably with the veterans rule then also had the introduction of free agency. He's good don't take it the wrong way but a lot fell into place for him. Put him in charge of Brisbane over the last 5-8 years n it's a totally different story. Right man in the right place at the right time. Perfect storm for him.

[Matty10]

There's been a lot of talk in the media about the Swans' resurrection from 0-6 to where we currently sit on the ladder being unprecedented. But there's an article on the AFL website today celebrating the coaching career of Alistair Clarkson that makes note of their 2010 season, where they were 1-6 after seven rounds and went on to win 11 of the next 15 to qualify for the finals. That's not really such a different position to the Swans this season. We just won our first game slightly later in that first seven rounds than the Hawks did.

That does discount the psychological scarring of 0-6 to some extent (which I think is the major reason that good teams fall away so completely after a horror start). The fact that everyone kept saying it had never been done before (at 0-5) surely increases the likelihood of doubts existing.

That Hawks record is great, but our story (so far) is unique.


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[liz]

That does discount the psychological scarring of 0-6 to some extent (which I think is the major reason that good teams fall away so completely after a horror start). The fact that everyone kept saying it had never been done before (at 0-5) surely increases the likelihood of doubts existing.

That Hawks record is great, but our story (so far) is unique.


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I am not convinced by the psychological scarring of good clubs. I think a more logical explanation of the rarity of clubs having such a bad start and then recovering is that good teams very rarely have such bad starts. So a 0-6 start (or similar) generally indicates that a team isn't that good.

Also, as Longmire and various players have pointed out, it doesn't leave any room for slippage. Even a good team on a roll can drop a game here and there, even if they play reasonably well. We very nearly lost the Essendon game, despite probably being the slightly better of the two teams over the course of the game, and it took almost until the final siren to peg back the Tigers. We were also fortunate to face a Melbourne side in good form but suddenly robbed of a few of their good midfielders, and we all know that the Giants are far from full strength at the moment.

To me that says that the team needs to continue to improve over the next two and a half months if we're to do some damage in the finals. I think there is improvement in the side, so that doesn't worry me, but there is certainly plenty of improvement left in other sides, especially by the time we meet the stronger contenders in September, if indeed we get there.

[Thunder Shaker]

I am not convinced by the psychological scarring of good clubs. I think a more logical explanation of the rarity of clubs having such a bad start and then recovering is that good teams very rarely have such bad starts. So a 0-6 start (or similar) generally indicates that a team isn't that good.

Also, as Longmire and various players have pointed out, it doesn't leave any room for slippage. Even a good team on a roll can drop a game here and there, even if they play reasonably well. We very nearly lost the Essendon game, despite probably being the slightly better of the two teams over the course of the game, and it took almost until the final siren to peg back the Tigers. We were also fortunate to face a Melbourne side in good form but suddenly robbed of a few of their good midfielders, and we all know that the Giants are far from full strength at the moment.

To me that says that the team needs to continue to improve over the next two and a half months if we're to do some damage in the finals. I think there is improvement in the side, so that doesn't worry me, but there is certainly plenty of improvement left in other sides, especially by the time we meet the stronger contenders in September, if indeed we get there.

We could also say that Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, West Coast, GWS and Carlton were fortunate to face Sydney in the first six rounds when the Swans had a few players injured, a few players underdone with a shortened pre-season and down on form and a few players carrying injuries.

[liz]

We could also say that Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, West Coast, GWS and Carlton were fortunate to face Sydney in the first six rounds when the Swans had a few players injured, a few players underdone with a shortened pre-season and down on form and a few players carrying injuries.

That's true, though none of their seasons are defined purely on getting a victory over the Swans that might have been unexpected. (Just as our season isn't defined by any single result.)

[Beerman]

I think we have to win at least one of Geelong and Adelaide away, and two out of three including the Hawthorn game to be taken seriously in the finals I think.

[707]

As always, having a fit squad through the finals makes a side more likely to have success. Get there first, then have injury luck.

[Matty10]

I am not convinced by the psychological scarring of good clubs. I think a more logical explanation of the rarity of clubs having such a bad start and then recovering is that good teams very rarely have such bad starts. So a 0-6 start (or similar) generally indicates that a team isn't that good.

You don't think teams drop away if they think the task ahead is impossible? Grand finals often play out that way - 'party time' only really occurs when one team has given up (and this frequently happens when enough time is still left to make a comeback possible).

Were Fremantle really a 0-10 calibre team in 2016 (after being minor premiers in 2015)?

It is certainly hard to measure, but it seemed (from the stands) that the Swans were unable to mentally (never mind physically) will themselves over the line against Carlton in round 6. It looked like they had surrendered the season in that final quarter - expectation can be a big burden. Maybe it required a degree of embarrassment, or to have their pride pricked in order for them to regain some fight.

I thought we were good enough to still make the finals - and I started doing the calculations in my head on the way home of how it could be achieved. My only worry was whether the players still thought it was possible, or whether it was still worth the effort considering how little wiggle room there was / is - a couple of slip ups and the dream is gone. It takes mental courage to keep backing up under that sort of pressure.

So far, they have been up for the challenge -which has been absolutely amazing to watch.

And you are right, there has been a lot of luck, or good fortune, along the way. We just need to keep riding that wave.

We are still in a precarious position - and an unexpected loss could kill the possibility - but at this point, I just have a feeling that we are going to win the whole damn thing.


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[mcs]

We are still in a precarious position - and an unexpected loss could kill the possibility - but at this point, I just have a feeling that we are going to win the whole damn thing.

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Sums up where I'm at too Matty10. Just have a feeling the way things are going we are going to keep riding that wave all the way to the end.

What I am sure of is that we are good enough to win the whole thing this season. Doing it is another matter altogether!

[KTigers]

In 1995, Carlton won 16 games in a row to win the flag. The last 13 games of the H-and-A season and three finals.
So it can be done.

[CureTheSane]

Winning like we have, this year, with such crazy results AND among teams that seem to be more mid to upper level than past years, really is pretty amazing.
Swans play best on the back foot.
Often we struggle and/or lose when we play a team we are expected to win.
We seem to be mentally fit which is the first step.

[CureTheSane]

bump

Top 4 surely is starting to enter some minds more now.
At the end of the round we could be out of the 4 only on percentage if Richmond lose, and only a game from third if they win - still with 5 rounds to go.
Win every game and there's a fair chance we'll end up second.

[Thunder Shaker]

bump

Top 4 surely is starting to enter some minds more now.
At the end of the round we could be out of the 4 only on percentage if Richmond lose, and only a game from third if they win - still with 5 rounds to go.
Win every game and there's a fair chance we'll end up second.

I consider that unlikely unless we win the rest of the games and othe results go our way.

We haven't yet played the top two sides this year. I'm still expecting to drop these two games out of the last five for a 13-9 record and a spot in 5th to 8th. If we win four games, I think we'll end up fourth and be a serious contender.

[Industrial Fan]

I think we'll beat the cats.

Hawks and crows are the worries imo.

It's only really the crows entrenched in the top four at this point.