2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Aprilbr]

While I concur with most here that we should not sell the farm to bring in Daniher, we should also be prepared for the likelihood that should the trade fall through its 50/50 whether we would get him next year as a RFA. This is probably our best chance to get him which I suspect is what is driving the Swans thinking too.

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[waswan]

It may be a case of having more money spare next year so we can front end his deal as opposed to the year after

[Auntie.Gerald]

Latest suggestion from afl.com

Trade Papley we get in return get pick 9

Give gws our pick 5 and 53 for picks 12,18,57 as gws will need to be up at pick 5 for Greene

Sydney then give picks 9&12 to the bombers for JD and pick 37 in return

——-

My suggestions:

Or we could give 9 & 18 for JD and 37 in return

Or 9 and 18 for JD and Dylan Clarke which I think would be a fairer outcome and much better for us

That leaves us picks 12, 25, 57, 59, 60, 76

Lewis Taylor for pick 57
Riley Knights for pick 59
Daniher for 9 and 18
Dylan Clarke for what would have been pick37
Bennell for zero

D.Cameron to the pies for pick 51 in return?

Leaving us draft picks 12, 25, 51, 60, 76 plus most likely next years saint Kilda second round pick for jones ie 25ish ?

That would be a great injection of experience for losing a lot of players Paps, Jones, Cameron, macca, Grundy, Smith, Jack, Rose plus help the cause of securing two important academy players next year

[MattW]

That sounds like Lloyd. Turn on Daniher because he wants to leave Essendon.

Yep, and set bad faith red lines for his trade.

[liz]

Latest suggestion from afl.com

Trade Papley we get in return get pick 9

Give gws our pick 5 and 53 for picks 12,18,57 as gws will need to be up at pick 5 for Greene

Sydney then give picks 5&12 to the bombers for JD and pick 37 in return

That would be a great sleight of hand. First we give the Giants pick 5, and then we use it to trade in Daniher...

[MattW]

That would be a great sleight of hand. First we give the Giants pick 5, and then we use it to trade in Daniher...

I assumed the second '5' was a typo, and intended to be a '9'.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Oops yes it was lol

I fixed the original post

[Jimitron5000]

I like the idea of Lewis Taylor, particularly given Papley seems certain to be going.
Riley Knight I don't know much about. Could be replace Jones adequately?

Can we sign Harley Bennell yet?

[Ludwig]

I'll go one better and get you Brodie Grundy as well. I reckon he would love living in Sydney, away from psycho Collingwood and Adelaide supporters. He strikes me as the sort of guy who would love the inner west or eastern suburbs. So here goes:

5,9, Cameron, Reid - Pies need targets up front
We get Grundy (7 year contract) and Sier (or Rupert Wills)

More realistically, maybe a 2nd rounder and Cameron for Sure or straight swap Cameron for Wills.

I know it won't happen but can't blame me dreaming!

I think this sounds like a very fair trade. It's really pick 5+Papley+Cameron+Reid for Grundy and Sier. It's a trade that suits both clubs. Far better than trading for Daniher.

[Ludwig]

A couple more thoughts:

* if we were going to wait until next year, then wouldn't we have just told Daniher wait and hold off on committing to any further contract instead of exposing him to this circus now? I guess that's not how it went with Tim Kelly but I think it's still more likely

* Thus I conclude we've made some kind of a commitment to JD that we will get the deal done, albeit not a blank cheque. You'd think we'd have given some indication of how far we'd be prepared to go so that he knows we're genuine and doesn't feel let down if it doesn't work out. At the same time not sure if we'd reveal all and anyway the situation might evolve

* After talking to Tom Harley DB said his impression was that the deal would probably be done; he felt even more bullish about Papley

Yes, I agree. We must have made some commitment to Joe to try to get a deal done this year.

Can we surmise that Harley is satisfied that the fitness concerns are minimal and Joe will be fully fit to play next season? I suppose so. Otherwise it simply doesn't make sense for us to pursue him now. But there must be some risk involved.

Essendon have been difficult to deal with and I don't think we need to do them any favours. I think Essendon are in a very week position. With Daniher announcing that he wants to leave for the Swans, it would be disastrous for Essendon to force him to play for them next year. Their whole 2020 would be consumed by both the loss of their coach and their best player to FA. (They'll probably have to reintroduce their drug program just to get through the year ),

Joe Daniher is worth less than nothing to Essendon now. Anything they can get for him is a bonus. That's the reality of free agency and the ability of players to name the team they want to go to.

The O'Meara and Tim Kelly situations are different, in that neither were close to free agency. They just wanted to go home or leave a losing club in the case of O'Meara.

I think the Swans will offer something fair for JD, but it won't seem fair from Essendon's perspective. But the unfairness from Essendon's perspective doesn't come from the Swans, but rather the AFL and AFLPA who negotiated the current FA environment which gives the player a lot of power in these situations.

Maybe the Swans want the visibility of being a fair player and will make a reasonable offer, but I would be very disappointed if that offer were more than 1 first round pick, probably pick 5.

Think through this scenario. Suppose the AFL had a player loan option like they do in soccer. What would be a fair price to pay to have Dustin Martin on you list, on a 1 year loan basis, after which he returns to Richmond, especially for a team not in premiership contention? Is it worth a top 10 draft pick for the 1 year of service?

It's a funny situation in that the way I see it, from whichever perspective I take, i.e. Eseendon's or Sydney's, I don't want Daniher at my club next year.

[Ludwig]

He won’t be free though. He will be a RFA. Essendon can still match and force a trade.

And I have to agree with Lloyd: given he is irreplaceable for the Bombers, they will play hard ball this trade period. And unless we offer Joe a Buddy style contract next year, the Bombers will likely match our offer. Which will be very complicated if we want to draft Gulden & Campbell.

I disagree. Clubs don't like to do this, forcing the player into a situation they don't want to be. The Swans can just pass and stick Essendon with a long term contract for a player who doesn't want to be there. It won't happen.

[MattW]

The point of Harley's interviews this morning was to make clear that he didn't initiate the August meeting and the meeting did not canvas Daniher being traded here. Generally, he suggests the move up was broadly Daniher's idea.

Barrett and Dal Santo believed him, Lloyd and McClure didn't. I believe him.

The timeline is a little murky after that initial meeting. It sounded like maybe there was some confirmation we would be interested after that, before Daniher confirmed he wanted to come a couple of weeks ago.

He said that Gardiner and Kinnear will handle the negotiations. I note Gardiner's presser today was remarkably similar to Harley's, with the only relevant additional point being his concession that Daniher's injury history was 'relevant'.

Harley pretty much confirmed Jones would be traded and I got the impression we'll facilitate the Papley trade if we get a decent offer.

Jake Niall reckons 'Essendon people' are looking to get a player in, another key forward, and thus it could end up in a three-way deal. Apparently, Essendon think they're heading into a 'contention period'. I wonder if Sam Reid could be offered.

[Jeynez]

I disagree. Clubs don't like to do this, forcing the player into a situation they don't want to be. The Swans can just pass and stick Essendon with a long term contract for a player who doesn't want to be there. It won't happen.

I guess this is true.

I honestly don’t think a trade will be done this year anyway. Essendon will play hard ball, as always. And we can wait a year for Free Agency.

The compensation Essendon will receive from FA next year won’t be that much worse than what we are currently willing to offer. So if I was the Bombers list manager, I’d make Daniher stay a year.

BEST case scenario, you can change his mind in 12 months time.

Worst case he leaves, but you will get compensated anyway.

[troyjones2525]

I will call it right now. I guarantee that we will blink first and trade out picks 5 & 9 for Daniher.

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[troyjones2525]

Latest suggestion from afl.com

Trade Papley we get in return get pick 9

Give gws our pick 5 and 53 for picks 12,18,57 as gws will need to be up at pick 5 for Greene

Sydney then give picks 9&12 to the bombers for JD and pick 37 in return

——-

My suggestions:

Or we could give 9 & 18 for JD and 37 in return

Or 9 and 18 for JD and Dylan Clarke which I think would be a fairer outcome and much better for us

That leaves us picks 12, 25, 57, 59, 60, 76

Lewis Taylor for pick 57
Riley Knights for pick 59
Daniher for 9 and 18
Dylan Clarke for what would have been pick37
Bennell for zero

D.Cameron to the pies for pick 51 in return?

Leaving us draft picks 12, 25, 51, 60, 76 plus most likely next years saint Kilda second round pick for jones ie 25ish ?

That would be a great injection of experience for losing a lot of players Paps, Jones, Cameron, macca, Grundy, Smith, Jack, Rose plus help the cause of securing two important academy players next year

I actually don't mind this scenario however I have my doubts that Essendon will accept picks 9 and 12 (or especially 9 and 18) when they know that they'd be able to get 5 and 9 out of us...

Would much prefer that outcome though as it would still leave us with a couple of decent picks in 18 and 25.

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