2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[barry]

I said earlier in this thread that I'd be happy to see us take a serious punt on a ruckman in the draft - or try to trade for someone of course. It could quickly make a big difference. Or a big proper key forward/ruck (Is it McDonald in WA that has been doing very well) if a standout is available when we draft. We've struggled whatever strategy we use in recent years for ruckman, but it is a key gap.

But what I don't see in that group of midfielders (While several will make it, I still have some question marks around the first 2 in the list in particular) is a lot of in and under grunt. The game is very different to what it once was (i.e. ideally you need lots of all round skilled midfielders) but I still think we haven't quite got succession planning quite worked out yet.

We are not the only side with ruckman problems. In fact, there are only about a half dozen good ruckmen in the comp, so they are hard to get, and take so long to mature you wait 5 years after you draft one.
Lets find a solid 2ns string ruckman we can trade in (like we did with Mumford, or port did with Lycett), and build a game style around not needing a dominant ruckman.

[MattW]

Ling, Stoddart, Blakey, Rowbottom, McInerney, Stephens, Warner, Campbell, Gulden = 9 midfielders who I rate will make it at AFL level in the 4 drafts from 2017-2020. Only Blakey and Rowbottom are clear best 22 at this point. We still have so many players, especially midfielders, to develop and push for senior selection. It's too early to know how it will all pan out, but I think the weight of numbers alone says we have a lot of midfielders. All these players have good pace, some being very quick.

We haven't had the stability of a reliable ruckman to develop a clearance strategy around. A lot was lost when Naismith went down with his 2nd ACL, after training up with Sam as the centrepiece of our midfield. We need to solve this problem. I think the rest will fall into place if we can get this done.

Agree. Ruck is our biggest liability, followed by KPF.

We start at a disadvantage every game because of our inferior ruck situation. Naismith has the potential to be a top 8-10 ruckman, but Sinclair is now among the bottom few. De Koning showed the value of having a mobile ruckman, even if slightly undersized.

I agree with you re our midfield situation, particularly with the emergence of Blakey as a clearance winner and Stephens to come.

I think our priority in the draft should be the best available player over 200cm, who could at least be serviceable in the ruck, while holding his own at ground level. Even better - an elite ruck prospect. De Koning went at pick 30 in the 2017 draft (three ahead of our best draft steal since Parker - Tom McCartin).

We probably need somebody else's backup ruckman as well, unless we think Knoll can play at AFL level.

[Markwebbos]

We are not the only side with ruckman problems. In fact, there are only about a half dozen good ruckmen in the comp, so they are hard to get, and take so long to mature you wait 5 years after you draft one.
Lets find a solid 2ns string ruckman we can trade in (like we did with Mumford, or port did with Lycett), and build a game style around not needing a dominant ruckman.

I'm in favour of a two-pronged approach: (1) trade in a mature ruckman who can play in 2021 e.g. Preuss, Ladhams etc. There are a fair few of them out there, although they may be hard to prise from their clubs. One very band-aid solution might be Paddy Ryder, who is now quite ancient, but can ruck (2) go to the draft and get a ruckman. Someone 200cm or taller who is going to be good in the ruck and contribute at ground level, take a mark, kick a goal etc. De Koning, who had a great game against us last night was pick 30.

I know they take a long time to develop, but we seem to have a lot on our list who have yet to come to maturity. So a clean-out may be coming.

Given the derision on here about poor Sinkers, and the fact AA isn't really tall enough to ruck, and is not a forward, maybe it really is time to bring in Knoll or Amartey and see what happens.

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Agree. Ruck is our biggest liability, followed by KPF.

We start at a disadvantage every game because of our inferior ruck situation. Naismith has the potential to be a top 8-10 ruckman, but Sinclair is now among the bottom few. De Koning showed the value of having a mobile ruckman, even if slightly undersized.

I agree with you re our midfield situation, particularly with the emergence of Blakey as a clearance winner and Stephens to come.

I think our priority in the draft should be the best available player over 200cm, who could at least be serviceable in the ruck, while holding his own at ground level. Even better - an elite ruck prospect. De Koning went at pick 30 in the 2017 draft (three ahead of our best draft steal since Parker - Tom McCartin).

We probably need somebody else's backup ruckman as well, unless we think Knoll can play at AFL level.

Great minds! I was writing my response while you posted yours, MattW

[MattW]

I'm in favour of a two-pronged approach: (1) trade in a mature ruckman who can play in 2021 e.g. Preuss, Ladhams etc. There are a fair few of them out there, although they may be hard to prise from their clubs. One very band-aid solution might be Paddy Ryder, who is now quite ancient, but can ruck (2) go to the draft and get a ruckman. Someone 200cm or taller who is going to be good in the ruck and contribute at ground level, take a mark, kick a goal etc. De Koning, who had a great game against us last night was pick 30.

I know they take a long time to develop, but we seem to have a lot on our list who have yet to come to maturity. So a clean-out may be coming.

Given the derision on here about poor Sinkers, and the fact AA isn't really tall enough to ruck, and is not a forward, maybe it really is time to bring in Knoll or Amartey and see what happens.

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Great minds! I was writing my response while you posted yours, MattW

Heh - we must be right!

[mcs]

Riley Thilthorpe seems to be the highest ranked ruck/KPF at this stage in most draft descriptions, and a fair chance we could get him (latest draft central description is below). A lot of people have huge wraps on Logan McDonald as a key Position forward if we wanted to go that route, but he might not be available even at pick 4. There seems to be a decent crop of key position players to look at, if that is where we want to go.


#6 Riley Thilthorpe
West Adelaide/South Australia | Ruck/Key Position Forward
7/07/2002 | 200cm | 99kg

In a welcome change from last year’s crop, key position prospects will be in abundance at the top end. Thilthorpe is one of them, an athletic ruck/forward who possesses enormous running capacity and can dominate the airways. In his ruck duties, the 200cm West Adelaide product plays more like a fourth midfielder, able to follow up at ground level and cover the ground like a small. He has been utilised in a more forward-oriented role for the Bloods at SANFL League level though, with his goalkicking attributes and diverse skillset already making him a handful for senior players with more mature bodies. Ask any of the South Australian Under 18s who they are most looking forward to playing alongside in 2020, and Thilthorpe is among them. Jot the name down, he should be among those you are most looking forward to watching, too.

[TheBloods]

Your the one that doesn't agree... what is your answer to your own question?
After all you've written off a host of our players as no good at various times this year so you are the oracle in this space....

And I disagree we have to wait 4 or 5 years for them to be able to play a sufficient role in the team. Especially if they are taken early in the draft (I.e. the cream of the crop from any given year), which we probably will be in a position to do so this year, if that is what they wanted to do. You've highlighted plenty of examples of midfielders of recent years that are making very significant contributions in their 1st,2nd,3rd year. The key for mine is having enough to share the load capably between them - and to give options. Perhaps we have enough options all around as it is, as ludwig suggests - but my opinions is that we are still one short in that regard.

I'm all for trading for an established midfielder that can plug the gap and fits the right age profile as such, or targeting a free agent. But I don't see who is out there that obviously fits that profile.

I don't have an answer because I don't think the midfield talent is there like others do. Rowbottom the only one with elite potential. Florent and George are solid if unremarkable mids. McInerney, Stephens, Warner, Campbell etc all unknowns at this stage.

You say we need a buddy for Rowbottom and I agree. We could fill that void by trading in a mid of a similar age to NOB. Or we draft someone. Who, I'm not sure. If we seek a KPF in the draft of which there are a handful of likely types then we are really placing our faith in the hands of kids who, up to this point, haven't shown much. Don't mistake this with me writing them off. It's a fact. They have not shown elite midfield material yet be it through lack of opportunity or not being physically mature enough yet. I don't know if I like going forward banking on one of them emerging as a superstar and would rather we take that fate into our own hands during the trade or draft period.

[Bloody Hell]

Perhaps the club thinks he can play that role - but he isn't a natural in and under midfielder. He has shown at times an ability to be effective in that sort of role this season, but I think he adds significant value as an outside midfielder, that is likely to be more valuable then what he would offer if he was just an inside midfielder only.

I think we definitely have room for one more midfidler that is more of an inside midfielder then an all round midfielder, especially as we all know the end is coming with Kennedy. We know the two midfielders we will get through the academy can play inside, but their versatility to play both midfield and half forward means they are probably not the answer either.

We need a monster midfielder like Cripps, etc.

I wish there was more said about our interest in Tom Green at draft time. As he is behind a few at GWS, we may have a chance to get him in a year or two.

The other one I can see is Paddy Dow. With the crap he is getting at Carlton ATM and if Papley still wants to go, we may be able to get a pick (late 1st) + Dow for Papley.

I feel like the "hybrid" midfielders we have picked up recently are outside/inside rather than inside/outside.

[Ludwig]

I don't have an answer because I don't think the midfield talent is there like others do. Rowbottom the only one with elite potential. Florent and George are solid if unremarkable mids. McInerney, Stephens, Warner, Campbell etc all unknowns at this stage.

You say we need a buddy for Rowbottom and I agree. We could fill that void by trading in a mid of a similar age to NOB. Or we draft someone. Who, I'm not sure. If we seek a KPF in the draft of which there are a handful of likely types then we are really placing our faith in the hands of kids who, up to this point, haven't shown much. Don't mistake this with me writing them off. It's a fact. They have not shown elite midfield material yet be it through lack of opportunity or not being physically mature enough yet. I don't know if I like going forward banking on one of them emerging as a superstar and would rather we take that fate into our own hands during the trade or draft period.

The problem with going to the draft for yet another midfielder is that it only adds to the list of unknowns. Will this newly drafted midfielder be any better chance of being an elite midfielder than Stephens or Warner? We wouldn't know for years, I suppose. How many elite midfielder candidates do we need on our list before we can say for certain that one of them will become elite?

If everyone is fit to play, then none of these mids highlighted would even get a chance to play AFL if we base our selection on best 22. There comes a time when we have to stop drafting new players just to let the ones already on our list have a shot of finding a spot in our best 22. Only JPK is in the retirement window for midfielders, so not many spots will open up, except for injuries.

And if we go to the trade table for one, the kind of midfielders you are looking for are going to be expensive, if available at all.

We are deep into our rebuild program. If we can't get a top 4 team from the current list, then our recruiters will have failed.

[TheBloods]

The problem with going to the draft for yet another midfielder is that it only adds to the list of unknowns. Will this newly drafted midfielder be any better chance of being an elite midfielder than Stephens or Warner? We wouldn't know for years, I suppose. How many elite midfielder candidates do we need on our list before we can say for certain that one of them will become elite?

If everyone is fit to play, then none of these mids highlighted would even get a chance to play AFL if we base our selection on best 22. There comes a time when we have to stop drafting new players just to let the ones already on our list have a shot of finding a spot in our best 22. Only JPK is in the retirement window for midfielders, so not many spots will open up, except for injuries.

And if we go to the trade table for one, the kind of midfielders you are looking for are going to be expensive, if available at all.

We are deep into our rebuild program. If we can't get a top 4 team from the current list, then our recruiters will have failed.

Deep into our rebuild program, yet we are just now at the point where we have no clear idea of what our future midfield will look like beyond one youth who may or may not become elite. That has me concerned.

[MightyBloods]

Ling, Stoddart, Blakey, Rowbottom, McInerney, Stephens, Warner, Campbell, Gulden = 9 midfielders who I rate will make it at AFL level in the 4 drafts from 2017-2020. Only Blakey and Rowbottom are clear best 22 at this point. We still have so many players, especially midfielders, to develop and push for senior selection. It's too early to know how it will all pan out, but I think the weight of numbers alone says we have a lot of midfielders. All these players have good pace, some being very quick.

We haven't had the stability of a reliable ruckman to develop a clearance strategy around. A lot was lost when Naismith went down with his 2nd ACL, after training up with Sam as the centrepiece of our midfield. We need to solve this problem. I think the rest will fall into place if we can get this done.

Agree. We need to find a ruckman already in the system who will also grow with our team. I do like Ladhams from Pt Adelaide.

[Ludwig]

Deep into our rebuild program, yet we are just now at the point where we have no clear idea of what our future midfield will look like beyond one youth who may or may not become elite. That has me concerned.

We already have 3 midfielders from the 2018 draft in Blakey, Rowbottom and McInerney that were in our side yesterday and looking to be a key part of our team for years to come. We've given Stephens and Warner a few games and Stephens looks to be coming along nicely. I think this is the way a rebuild through the draft is supposed to work.

Whether drafting or recruiting, there isn't any certainty on how things will turn out. History says that there are no miracle cures. We need to be a little patient and give these guys a chance to develop.

What alternative do you think we have that will bring certainty to our midfield?

[TheBloods]

We already have 3 midfielders from the 2018 draft in Blakey, Rowbottom and McInerney that were in our side yesterday and looking to be a key part of our team for years to come. We've given Stephens and Warner a few games and Stephens looks to be coming along nicely. I think this is the way a rebuild through the draft is supposed to work.

Whether drafting or recruiting, there isn't any certainty on how things will turn out. History says that there are no miracle cures. We need to be a little patient and give these guys a chance to develop.

What alternative do you think we have that will bring certainty to our midfield?

I don't have an alternative. That is precisely why I am lamenting the position we're in. Deep into our rebuild and still so far away from having a clear picture of what our midfield will look like. So many eggs in the basket of teenagers that could be good players but could just as easily let us down.

I don't want to pessimistic and would love for this young group to silence me. I just happen to not rate them as highly as other RWOers so forgive me for being alarmed at where we're at.

[Aprilbr]

I made the following observations for what they are worth on the Carlton game thread but I feel they are pretty relevant to this thread too.

For me, this game crystallised what to like and not to like about the Swans over the past two seasons. On the positive, we have an excellent batch of younger players who are gradually maturing with games. There are around 10 players there who could be part of our next premiership team. They are still inconsistent but the potential and growth is there. On the negative, our Ruck and centre clearances are amongst the worst in the AFL at present.

The way forward is clear to me. Many of our young players are not ready yet. Recruit in a strong, seasoned ruckman and gradually further boost the midfield. Load up more with the Academy players and draft for the next season or so and then bring in a big name, big money player or two when we are really ready to challenge in 2 years time.

[mcs]

I don't have an alternative. That is precisely why I am lamenting the position we're in. Deep into our rebuild and still so far away from having a clear picture of what our midfield will look like. So many eggs in the basket of teenagers that could be good players but could just as easily let us down.

I don't want to pessimistic and would love for this young group to silence me. I just happen to not rate them as highly as other RWOers so forgive me for being alarmed at where we're at.

It doesn't matter how you go about building a list, if you are doing it from the draft, unless you tank to heaven and high water (and even that isn't guaranteed to work) and collate first round draft picks like your GWS, you simply can't get enough elite talent to 'know' that it will work in the medium term. There is no sure fire approach to building a quality squad that is guaranteed to work. For every GWS midfield at its best, there is the carlton tanking efforts to show the other side... and that's with a shedload of early picks. With a normal draft hand, you have to rely more on finding some talent and unearthing some hidden gems, and trying to get enough elite talent to top it off.

What has made our rebuild more difficult is that we made the choice to give Buddy big $$$ (don't take this as a criticism of the deal - its simply a fact) on a back-ended contract. Like anything in footy, that was a risk v reward decision. We should have got rewards from it - at least 1 flag, probably 2 (had we turned up in '14). But didn't. But now we have this awkward couple of years where we don't have much spare $ to throw around, trying to do the alternate approach to going to the draft heavily of trying to pick more then fringe players from other clubs is out of the ball game too.

But we aren't at a point to know, and history has, time and time proven that you can't judge the long term ceiling of a player until arguably at least 50+ games in - even then, many don't really hit their straps till they get past 100 games. Of course there are outliers that hit the ground from day 1. But look at the stats, as we've discussed before, and some of the absolute best players in the game were pretty bog standard till 3,4 or 5 years into their careers on a list. Conversely, many players can be overrated on their early signs too and don't reach the level hoped. It goes both ways.

I feel you are willing to judge far too quickly on the ceiling of some players - you even wrote off a couple earlier in the year that haven't even played a senior game yet, including one on the list in his first year at the club. Some of the greats of the game would have been out the door before they had any chance to show what they could do if you were the list manager.

I think we are broadly on the right track - and I do think part of the planning is currently aimed at building a nice rump of potential, that we can add one or two bigger names through trades when the $$$ open up in a couple of years time. We've seen it in recent years at other clubs, how it can only take 1 or 2 extra pieces to a jigsaw, and suddenly a team goes from meddling to right near the top in double quick time. And unless people truly are delusional and think we are going to challenge in 2021 (we aren't), and I'd argue probably not in 2022 either (though you'd hope we will be challenging for finals), then the current strategy, to some degree makes sense.

Doesn't mean of course we don't have areas we need to address as well,and should try to do so this year if we do carry in extra picks, which is a chance if Papley does want to go again.

[dimelb]

We already have 3 midfielders from the 2018 draft in Blakey, Rowbottom and McInerney that were in our side yesterday and looking to be a key part of our team for years to come. We've given Stephens and Warner a few games and Stephens looks to be coming along nicely. I think this is the way a rebuild through the draft is supposed to work.

Whether drafting or recruiting, there isn't any certainty on how things will turn out. History says that there are no miracle cures. We need to be a little patient and give these guys a chance to develop.

What alternative do you think we have that will bring certainty to our midfield?

I'm aware that many people on this board won't agree but I think Bell still has a lot to offer. He has pace, determination, strength, a good kick, and is prepared to throw himself into the action. I hope he gets a chance to show his wares again before the season finishes.