2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[troyjones2525]

I've mentioned that I think the three players we are most likely to use our pick 3 on are Logan McDonald, Elijah Hollands and Riley Thilthorpe. I think they are all sensational prospects, with Logan McDonald probably the pick of the bunch. I thought it would be convenient to create a table showing how the different pundits have rated them in one place.

Well, I tried inserting a table. It looked fine when I 'previewed' it - but then looked like junk after I posted it. So I will have to explain it instead. There are three sets of rankings taken from AFL Draft Central (October), Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide (October edition) and Chris Doerre's rankings (September edition). They rank the players respectively as follows:

Logan McDonald (196 cm, 86 kg): 3, 2, 2

Elijah Hollands (188 cm, 80 kg): 2, 3, 4

Riley Thilthorpe (201 cm, 100 kg): 6, 4, 6


I couldn't think of what other rankings are out there but I think I have probably missed some that are worth paying attention to - can anyone point to more?

Both Hollands and Thilthorpe unfortunately have fitness questions - Hollands did his ACL last year and was unable to play footy this year (even if Covid had permitted); Thilthorpe seems to have ongoing and recurring groin issues. I will be pretty chuffed if we draft any of these. The amazing thing is that both McDonald and Thilthorpe seem pretty close to ready to play given they have both been playing this season with grown ups in the WAFL and SANFL (although that wasn't enough for Gould). They are both also noted as having great tanks. In Thilthrope's case this enables him to be able to play on the ball and relieve very effectively in the ruck.

I agree that any of these, along with Will Phillips would be perfect additions and top quality prospects!

But I've resigned myself to the fact that we'll no doubt pick Denver Granger Barrass.

He is also a quality player and probably ranked by most as 5th pick in the open market, being the best key back in the draft.

For some reason it's never simple when it comes to the Swans drafting in the first round. We almost always make a more speculative pick, taking a player higher than most others have in their rankings!

That's why I think we'll bypass the more highly rated mids for DGB, who will no doubt be a great player, but also one that probably is less of a 'risk' than Hollands and more a needs pick ( a tall) than Phillips (even though I'd prefer either of them before DGB myself).

Interested to hear others thoughts on our first round choices of late (over others we bypassed).

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[SwanSand]

I agree that any of these, along with Will Phillips would be perfect additions and top quality prospects!

But I've resigned myself to the fact that we'll no doubt pick Denver Granger Barrass.

He is also a quality player and probably ranked by most as 5th pick in the open market, being the best key back in the draft.

For some reason it's never simple when it comes to the Swans drafting in the first round. We almost always make a more speculative pick, taking a player higher than most others have in their rankings!

That's why I think we'll bypass the more highly rated mids for DGB, who will no doubt be a great player, but also one that probably is less of a 'risk' than Hollands and more a needs pick ( a tall) than Phillips (even though I'd prefer either of them before DGB myself).

Interested to hear others thoughts on our first round choices of late (over others we bypassed).

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Certainly wouldn’t trade out pick 3.
KPD is a need but I reckon our backline is fine for now. So Hollands or Phillips for me. Phillips or Tanner Bruhn ideal as they could be great inside players. Hollands may give us class and has better upside I guess if knee has recovered well. Tanner May head back to Geelong so avoid him.

- - - Updated - - -

Maybe Tom McDonald comes as a cheap option

[Markwebbos]

Maybe Tom McDonald comes as a cheap option

McDonald
Hollands
Thilthorpe

Undecided after that but we’ll get one of those 3.

McDonald is on about $700k a year and can’t get a game at the Demons!

[stevoswan]

Paddy Mccartin has supposedly done a medical at Carlton

Damn it.....I was hoping we'd show some foresight and snare an upside bargain. Maybe the rumours he'd rather stay in Melbourne are true.

[Thunder Shaker]

Who we draft would depend on who we recruit.

Suppose we recruit Hickey. That would free Aliir to play in his preferred position in defence. With McCartin also showing he can play in defence, we would be less likely to recruit Granger-Barrass (tall defender) because we would no longer need a tall defender. In that circumstance, we would be more likely to recruit Hollands/Philips, or McDonald if he somehow made it to pick 3 (unlikely, because North Melbourne are trading out Ben Brown and may be considering McDonald).

[Thunder Shaker]

McDonald
Hollands
Thilthorpe

Undecided after that but we’ll get one of those 3.

I agree with your choices. I suspect we would get Hollands. I expect Adelaide to recruit JUH, the Dogs match, and then they call the local Thilthorpe. North Melbourne recruit McDonald to replace Brown. We get Hollands, Hawthorn gets Philips to start the rebuild of their midfield, Gold Coast gets Granger-Barrass, and all five clubs would be satisfied with those choices.

[Chilcott]

Paddy Mccartin has supposedly done a medical at Carlton


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That’s ok. If he did his medical in Sydney he would’ve had to go into quarantine for 14 days first. By doing the medical in Melbourne, we get access to results now, instead of a fortnight’s time.

[Blood Fever]

I would be happier with Cox than Hickey, but not upset if Hickey comes, as I know we're trying our best and I think he'll be better than Sinclair.

We really need as good young tall forward, so Logan McDonald is my preference, but I would be really happy with Hollands, who looks like he'll be an elite player in the competition. Also, as someone said, he's from Wodonga, so there shouldn't be go home factor; in fact, it's John Longmire country (give or take a riverbank), and we know John relates to country lads.

But I don't think either will be available - I think they're clear one and two. The only way we'll get one is if Adelaide pick the local boy Thilthorpe, which, who knows, in light of Victorians wanting to head back south-east they may do. I notice he's described himself as 'a big Crows fan'
(Catching up with a Croweater - Riley Thilthorpe - SANFL). Hmm.

Presuming they don't, we're left to choose between Thilthorpe and Grainger-Barras. I'd want to know whether Thilthorpe can lead the ruck. I notice he's been rucking the forward stoppages in the SANFL (SANFL Player Focus: Riley Thilthorpe (West Adelaide) - Aussie Rules Draft Central).

This does sound pretty useful:

“Riley has already played well at league level and is a unique tall in that he is just as good at ground level as he is in the air,” Torrens University SA U18 coach Tony Bamford said.

“He’s your modern, AFL-style ruckman who can rack up 25 possessions.’’ (Torrens University Draft Target - Riley Thilthorpe - West Adelaide Football Club)

Grainger-Barras' athleticism is pretty enticing, but I'm happy to back McCartin to have a crack at being our number 1 tall defender.

Where is the evidence that M.Cox has any ability at all as a ruckman? Crazy idea.

[MattW]

Where is the evidence that M.Cox has any ability at all as a ruckman? Crazy idea.

Did you see my post earlier in the thread on his record in the ruck?

[Melbourne_Blood]

Can’t understand why McCartin would want to go there....McKay, Curnow, Casboult, McGovern....does he intend on playing in the reserves?

Great point. Unless they are planning on trying to move one of those guys on to free up some cap room ? ( 900k for Williams, 700k for Saad ). A fit Curnow would be a nice addition.

[Blood Fever]

Did you see my post earlier in the thread on his record in the ruck?

Tracked your post down. Went well in those 2 games in 2017 but small sample size. Strikes me as not that durable as a ruckman. Agree about his value as a goal kicker. Looking like Hickey at this stage who I've seen play well, especially for West Coast. Dean Cox must be a bit of a fan since I'm sure he was consulted.

[liz]

Who we draft would depend on who we recruit.

... would free Aliir to play in his preferred position in defence. With McCartin also showing he can play in defence, we would be less likely to recruit Granger-Barrass (tall defender) because we would no longer need a tall defender.

Were the club to choose Granger-Barrass, it wouldn't be for what he can do in 2021 or even 2022 but rather for the decade after that. I don't think recruitment decisions that are focused on 2021 (eg re Aliir) will have much impact on who is selected in the draft.

[MattW]

Tracked your post down. Went well in those 2 games in 2017 but small sample size. Strikes me as not that durable as a ruckman. Agree about his value as a goal kicker. Looking like Hickey at this stage who I've seen play well, especially for West Coast. Dean Cox must be a bit of a fan since I'm sure he was consulted.

Sure. He's 211cm, which helps. That's 5cm taller than Naismith. If you check his stats through the AFL site, his hitouts won % is elite or above average every year.

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[Ludwig]

If you've seen Cox play, you would know he's a good ruckman. His game time in the ruck is limited because Grundy has so much game time. Collingwood also use Cox up forward because their only other decent tall forward is Mihocek. If Cox plays full time in the ruck, he would be one of the top half dozen ruckmen. He also provides a strong marking target around the ground. He can be a very useful outlet rebounding from defence.

Because Collingwood want to offload him in a salary dump, he could be available cheaply (picks). I'm sure Collingwood would love to have pick 3 in exchange for their 2021 first rounder, which they are also looking to offload. At the end of the day, it could result in a good value trade for us with some other value points being added with pick swaps.

I know many would look forward to us drafting Elijah Hollands, as he looks a very good player. I would love to see him at the Swans, and except for the possibility of using pick 3 in a trade for a ruckman, I expect he will be who we get in the draft.

[Markwebbos]

Great point. Unless they are planning on trying to move one of those guys on to free up some cap room ? ( 900k for Williams, 700k for Saad ). A fit Curnow would be a nice addition.

I like this theory