2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[The Big Cat]

I don’t mind Brand but definitely agree gray and Taylor have been very underwhelming to say the least. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Gray delisted and redrafted onto the rookie list

Can’t delist Gray and redraft as he is not out of contract. Same with Naismith. Suspect it could be the fate Ronke or Foot perhaps, that’s if they survive at all.

[Markwebbos]

Correct. The blind faith in anything the club does is unbelievable.

Dare question something and they are also the loudest shouting you down.

Why would people cite Papley going for pick 72 as an "example" of the sort of thing we would do, when we refused to trade him for a very high first round pick last year?

[Ludwig]

picks as at now 12:38pm Thurs:

3 = 2,234 pts
25 = 756 pts
34 = 542 pts
60 =146 pts

Roughly 1400 points for Campbell and Gulden looks to fall a bit short, but I wouldn't be surprised if we could squeeze out a couple of hundred points by trading down our 2nd round picks. With the list reductions, clubs will want to move up the order as lower picks are likely not to be used for lack of open spots. There's also about a 50+ point cushion before dropping a spot in the 1st round, depending on where we finish next year. We could get by with just the picks we have now. Our 2021 4th rounder should also be movable to this year if we would still short after matching the Gulden bid.

Good calculating by the KB and crew. Just about spot on. They've really mastered the points system and are just about the best at 'gaming' the system.

[The Big Cat]

Ben Brown traded to Melbourne for effectively a late second round pick and he’s a much more accomplished player than Aliir.

[Auntie.Gerald]

a little different in that North were not going to commit to a big contract again $$$$ and not many teams keen

..

Are we sure that Gray is contracted?
I remember only a 1 yr contract being in the media last year?

[rb4x]

I saw it reported that Gray came to the Swans because we offered 3 years.

[Melbourne_Blood]

2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

I saw it reported that Gray came to the Swans because we offered 3 years.

2 years according to zero hanger ( which is usually spot on ). So one more year, 2021.


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[Steve]

I swear we could trade out Papley for pick 72 and there’d be posters on here justifying it because we have a glut of small forwards and he was never that good anyway.

The AA trade in isolation is so so at best, but the issue is that we’ve been trading out young best 22 players for 6-7 years now and trading in some pretty sub par replacements. We have turned into a feeder club.

Well managed clubs simply don’t lose players the caliber of who we’ve lost.

Can’t you just accept that the club isn’t being managed as well as it was 10 years ago and that if there is a grand plan, it’s extremely flawed

I don't think any of that is right.

When you're a top club you lose players - it's a matter of prioritising who you keep. Have a look at the players Hawthorn, Richmond etc lost around their premiership years.

That was us at the start of the period you've referred to. The last couple of years we've been rebuilding, focusing on the draft - we had an imbalance with the age/experience profile of our list so did top up with a few guys like Thurlow, Taylor, Brand, Gray etc - but all of them basically cost us nothing to bring in. It's not even as though we played them week-in week-out taking games away from youngsters - those older guys have only been used sparingly (outside of some injuries).

[Ludwig]

Ben Brown traded to Melbourne for effectively a late second round pick and he’s a much more accomplished player than Aliir.

Aliir and Brown went for picks 44 and 47, respectively, in the 2013 draft. And now they've been traded for late 2nd rounders. Going on parallel career paths. Brown is nearly 2 years older. I think Aliir is still to reach his best, but Brown looks to be past his peak.

[bloodspirit]

Thanks to all for sharing their thoughts. I have especially appreciated the analysis and comments of Ludwig and 707.

My own thoughts are:

* I'm really disappointed to see Aliir go. I think he would have preferred to stay but we couldn't match what Port were offering. He is an exciting player and his best is excellent. He hasn't produced his best consistently for us and it remains to be seen whether he will ultimately get it together and hold it together. Transferring to another city and club won't necessarily make it easier for him.

* each of the deals with West Coast and Port were individually mediocre and I think we can confidently say that the other club "won" the trade (although of course we don't know what the future will bring). A lot of other clubs have had to do deals for unders worse than us e.g. Suns & Wright, NMFC & Brown, Crows lost Crouch for not much etc. I only wish that we could have been on the winners side of one of these deals and laughing our way to the draft.

* overall the trades have made sense in so far as we address the needs/issues we had addressed as priorities: we have obtained a proper and experienced ruck (albeit a average journeyman) and we have strengthened our ability to pay for our Academy players this year. We have done this at the cost of a talented, experienced, versatile but inconsistent player who was also a fan favourite and great ambassador for the game, namely Aliir Aliir. Aliir's primary position, KPD, is a position where we have substantial depth to cover that role. Aliir was neither our best nor worst in that role but others (like Melican & Brand) are cheaper to retain, and perhaps more consistent and more reliable defensively, and, perhaps most importantly, those other players weren't being courted by other clubs and have no trade currency. The exception would be Tom McCartin - but would we rather him or Aliir? I think that's not entirely straightforward but I would say definitely McCartin, not least because of his younger age.

* it really sucks that we are losing yet another player coming into their prime, an age demographic where our club is lacking. This is one reason that losing Zak Jones last year hurt. And it is a reason that I will be concerned to lose Hewett, if we do.

* the fact that we felt the need to trade Aliir, let him go, speaks to salary cap issues. Why do we have such issues? I imagine Buddy was the highest paid player in the league for 2020 and will be again for 2021. But apart from him, we have the youngest list in the competition and although we have a few stars and leaders who will be on substantial money (JPK, Parker, Lloyd, Heeney, Mills, Papley) it seems to me that a lot of our talented youth (Florent, Hayward, Blakey, Rowbottom, McCartin, Dawson) must also be on generous coin for us to be in this position. I hope keeping this group together is worth the investment leads to success and then them accepting unders to be part of a successful team with their mates down the track.

* I still expect us to bring in a forward of some kind this off season apart from the ND. Rarely does the club talk about doing something publicly and then not follow through. If it's Paddy McCartin and we decide he'll be worth the punt, I'll be happy with that.

Overall, I understand that we are dealing with the situation we have having regard to our list needs, list assets, draft requirements, salary cap etc, and that we have made some pragmatic choices. I can live with it, but I'm not delighted. Kin Beatson will live with a bit more scrutiny going forward and has a bit less credit in the bank if these moves don't work out.

5.25 hours until trade period ends. The action is going to start hotting up. Please let Essendon send Jye Caldwell to the PSD. There's no way he'll last until their pick and they'll have egg on their faces (again). I doubt he'd get past pick 1. So I can't actually see it happening - but then why bother making such a hollow threat? And let Geelong pay up big time for Jez Cameron.

[Ludwig]

I don't think any of that is right.

When you're a top club you lose players - it's a matter of prioritising who you keep. Have a look at the players Hawthorn, Richmond etc lost around their premiership years.

That was us at the start of the period you've referred to. The last couple of years we've been rebuilding, focusing on the draft - we had an imbalance with the age/experience profile of our list so did top up with a few guys like Thurlow, Taylor, Brand, Gray etc - but all of them basically cost us nothing to bring in. It's not even as though we played them week-in week-out taking games away from youngsters - those older guys have only been used sparingly (outside of some injuries).

I agree. We can be too critical of picking up these speculative list fillers. At the time of recruitment it comes down to taking players like Clarke and Thurlow in lieu of rookie list picks. As was shown in the second half of this season, Clarke and Thurlow look good recruits in that context. Our success rate on these late pick recruits is a lot better than the long term average for rookie picks.

Not every recruit or draft pick is going to be a hit. But I think we've done quite well in recent years. Most of our 2012 premiership team has moved on. In these 8 years we've rebuilt our list with some good young talent and is recognised as one of the best young lists in the comp. Most commentators think we are on the rise. We changed our game plan and have recruited to fit a style focused on speed and skill, and one I believe is more suited to the times. I'm feeling quite positive about the future (of the team, not the world).

[The Big Cat]

A player going into the PSD must nominate their salary and by that stage most other potential suitors have already committed their cap. This is why some players seem to be ignored in the PSD even though other clubs would love to pick them. (Be good to see crows leave some cap room so they can thwart some of these smart arse tactics. With pick 1, crows know for sure they can grab the player and thus won’t be saving tpp for potentially nothing.)

[Markwebbos]

Thanks to all for sharing their thoughts. I have especially appreciated the analysis and comments of Ludwig and 707.

My own thoughts are:

* I'm really disappointed to see Aliir go. I think he would have preferred to stay but we couldn't match what Port were offering. He is an exciting player and his best is excellent. He hasn't produced his best consistently for us and it remains to be seen whether he will ultimately get it together and hold it together. Transferring to another city and club won't necessarily make it easier for him.

* each of the deals with West Coast and Port were individually mediocre and I think we can confidently say that the other club "won" the trade (although of course we don't know what the future will bring). A lot of other clubs have had to do deals for unders worse than us e.g. Suns & Wright, NMFC & Brown, Crows lost Crouch for not much etc. I only wish that we could have been on the winners side of one of these deals and laughing our way to the draft.

* overall the trades have made sense in so far as we address the needs/issues we had addressed as priorities: we have obtained a proper and experienced ruck (albeit a average journeyman) and we have strengthened our ability to pay for our Academy players this year. We have done this at the cost of a talented, experienced, versatile but inconsistent player who was also a fan favourite and great ambassador for the game, namely Aliir Aliir. Aliir's primary position, KPD, is a position where we have substantial depth to cover that role. Aliir was neither our best nor worst in that role but others (like Melican & Brand) are cheaper to retain, and perhaps more consistent and more reliable defensively, and, perhaps most importantly, those other players weren't being courted by other clubs and have no trade currency. The exception would be Tom McCartin - but would we rather him or Aliir? I think that's not entirely straightforward but I would say definitely McCartin, not least because of his younger age.

* it really sucks that we are losing yet another player coming into their prime, an age demographic where our club is lacking. This is one reason that losing Zak Jones last year hurt. And it is a reason that I will be concerned to lose Hewett, if we do.

* the fact that we felt the need to trade Aliir, let him go, speaks to salary cap issues. Why do we have such issues? I imagine Buddy was the highest paid player in the league for 2020 and will be again for 2021. But apart from him, we have the youngest list in the competition and although we have a few stars and leaders who will be on substantial money (JPK, Parker, Lloyd, Heeney, Mills, Papley) it seems to me that a lot of our talented youth (Florent, Hayward, Blakey, Rowbottom, McCartin, Dawson) must also be on generous coin for us to be in this position. I hope keeping this group together is worth the investment leads to success and then them accepting unders to be part of a successful team with their mates down the track.

* I still expect us to bring in a forward of some kind this off season apart from the ND. Rarely does the club talk about doing something publicly and then not follow through. If it's Paddy McCartin and we decide he'll be worth the punt, I'll be happy with that.

Overall, I understand that we are dealing with the situation we have having regard to our list needs, list assets, draft requirements, salary cap etc, and that we have made some pragmatic choices. I can live with it, but I'm not delighted. Kin Beatson will live with a bit more scrutiny going forward and has a bit less credit in the bank if these moves don't work out.

5.25 hours until trade period ends. The action is going to start hotting up. Please let Essendon send Jye Caldwell to the PSD. There's no way he'll last until their pick and they'll have egg on their faces (again). I doubt he'd get past pick 1. So I can't actually see it happening - but then why bother making such a hollow threat? And let Geelong pay up big time for Jez Cameron.

Think that's extremely measured Bloodspirit. I hope you are right about the Bombers and the Cats. GWS are making them go all in on Cameron.

[Thunder Shaker]

A discussion about Hickey on the AFL Trade Talk blog shows that being traded to Sydney has "brought relief" to Hickey and also some sadness. This is a player who wanted to leave WA for family reasons.

[Auntie.Gerald]

I wonder with AA leaving will we see Hayward get even more HBF time in 2021?