2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Markwebbos]

Drafting and trading are both inexact, I'd be interested to know how our success rate compares to other clubs. There clearly other factors at play, above all player development. Others have expressed lack of enthusiasm regarding Laidler. I certainly wish Shaw was still a development coach, he seemed able to perform miracles.

[707]

Unfortunately, the contract from hell was back-ended. I know we're stuck paying him a million next year.
I'm confident, provided he stays fit, he'll earn it.
We NEED to keep Parks.

It's 'just' $900k next year Annie

[MattW]

If we cut Hewett, Sinclair, Reid, Ronke, Gray and Brand, it would seem that should free up enough money to easily sign Parker, Dawson and Stephens.

If that's not right, then we really are in serious salary cap trouble.

Yes.

[Roadrunner]

I don’t understand why we can’t ask and force, if necessary, the re- in statement of COLA. Eddie was the main instigator for its removal but he is no longer influential (as far as I know)! It is painfully obvious that cost of living is clearly higher in Sydney and totally unfair for this not to be reflected in our cap.

We need our executives to stand up to the AFL strongly on this. We are in a good position regarding TV audiences and followers across the country and our high number of followers, and force their hand.

We’re a well managed club and had only one marquee player in the last 5 years or so whose contract is not so unique these days, looking at what other clubs have done. (Ok, I’m not counting Tippet). Therefore it is simply not acceptable that we should have issues trying to keep players like Parker and Dawson - even Hewett. Fair is fair- let’s not be pushed about anymore.

[Maltopia]

Drafting and trading are both inexact, I'd be interested to know how our success rate compares to other clubs. There clearly other factors at play, above all player development. Others have expressed lack of enthusiasm regarding Laidler. I certainly wish Shaw was still a development coach, he seemed able to perform miracles.

I agree re inexactness of drafting in particular.

‘Moneyball’ (the book) was supported by US data that showed that only around 50% of high end draft picks go on to have really successful careers and the rest have short or sub par careers.

We have a lot more testing and analysis of draftees now than around 20 years ago, but drafting is really still a bit of a gamble.

You can look at the first round picks from 2016 and earlier (2017 still quite recent) and you see heaps of players in the top 20 that have been delisted, or not regular top 22.

Then you also see the late draft picks and rookies that have become All Australians (Rampe, Papley) and or regular first 22 (Cunningham, Newman, and more recently, Wicks).

I can’t believe Shai Bolton got picked at 29 and Tom Stewart at 40 in the 2016 draft. Absolute steals!

Tim Kelly at 24 in 2017 and Bailey Fritsch at 32 (we did fantastic with McCartin at 33) have been as good as, or better than most of the first rounders. Sam Taylor at 28 looks to be a superstar defender in the making etc

There is always going to be some high picks that don’t pan out for us, which is disappointing but to be expected, but also second rounders and rookies that do much better than expected.

[Auntie.Gerald]

For me I think there is more upside in us using an early pick for a player that immediately helps our 2022 campaign.

2022 and 2023 are definitely window years if trades and or injuries go our way.

But also we are stacked with youth right now and need to balance out physical bodies that can be true top4 contenders via a more challenging draw in 2022.

If we end up with our first Pick 14 = then combined this Equals picks 32 and 33

Warner, Parker, Reid, McInerney, Hewett etc have been in and around picks 30 to mid 40s

Also a stack of trades like Hannes, Jones, Nanny etc we have received approx pick 30 in return.

We could trade in say two x 22 to 24yr old players we see as important pieces in the puzzle via trading picks 32 and 33

Players that can have a serious impact in 2022 while Kennedy and Bud and Rampe are still with us and make a serious contribution.

These type of players in teams that will struggle to stay within the cap ie from very good systems, coaching and team competitiveness:

Jack Ross | AFL

Patrick Lipinski | AFL

[The Runner]

Lipinski has asked to be traded to Pies or Blues, and Ross is contracted to 2022.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Thanks Runner for the update

as we know anything is possible re negotiations and contracts and trades....................so certain players at clubs maybe able to move depending on circumstances ie Jones to Saints or Hannes to Saints or Mitchell to the Hawks or Nannygate to the Tigers..............or Bud to us or AA to Port etc

bigger name players than say Ross or Lipinski............

the tone of my comments was more around best supporting Sydney Swans 2022 and 2023 window

what are the best moves we can make to give 2022 and 2023 a serious shake without busting our competitiveness in the years after.

For me it is keeping what we have bar maybe one player that we might not be able to keep due to such a large offer elsewhere............secondly bring in at least 2 players that will play 15 games plus in Snrs next year and help us get a top4 spot...........two players that really help us step up again in 2022 but are great value for the medium to long term also.

I suspect we are not in a financial position like Hawthorn were for a few years to cherry pick players and pay for it to seal a GF ??

[Ralph Dawg]

For me I think there is more upside in us using an early pick for a player that immediately helps our 2022 campaign.

2022 and 2023 are definitely window years if trades and or injuries go our way.

But also we are stacked with youth right now and need to balance out physical bodies that can be true top4 contenders via a more challenging draw in 2022.

If we end up with our first Pick 14 = then combined this Equals picks 32 and 33

Warner, Parker, Reid, McInerney, Hewett etc have been in and around picks 30 to mid 40s

Also a stack of trades like Hannes, Jones, Nanny etc we have received approx pick 30 in return.

We could trade in say two x 22 to 24yr old players we see as important pieces in the puzzle via trading picks 32 and 33

Players that can have a serious impact in 2022 while Kennedy and Bud and Rampe are still with us and make a serious contribution.

These type of players in teams that will struggle to stay within the cap ie from very good systems, coaching and team competitiveness:

Jack Ross | AFL

Patrick Lipinski | AFL

Don't really see where Lipinski or Ross fit. We are stacked with players of their type who we should keep. Neither would be bargain basement and we'd have to shed players like Hewett and Stephens to free up cap space. Plus our pressing need is in the KP / ruck area.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Ralph interesting perspective re a leading mid forward at 190cm not fitting in and or a bull emerging inside mid not fitting in?

You could be right that they don't have any value and don't fit in and or they wouldn't make our best 22?

It probably doesn't matter re what u and I think which players serve us best given we don't know best.......what does matter is giving ourselves the best opportunity to take on the top4 while Kennedy, rampe and Bud are with us in 2022..........obviously rampe will be beyond.

If we were almost bottom of the table last year do u really think we have to shed players ?

I only think we need to shed a player if we can't match a significant offer by another club ie the AA situation of 4 years and very good offer we may have struggled to match........and or if we perceive we are better served ie using the trade for a Hickey .....or like we did with Mummy, Kennedy etc ie to bring on board a couple important emerging 50 game type experienced players we want for 2022 and well beyond

[Maltopia]

Ralph interesting perspective re a leading mid forward at 190cm not fitting in and or a bull emerging inside mid not fitting in?

You could be right that they don't have any value and don't fit in and or they wouldn't make our best 22?

It probably doesn't matter re what u and I think which players serve us best given we don't know best.......what does matter is giving ourselves the best opportunity to take on the top4 while Kennedy, rampe and Bud are with us in 2022..........obviously rampe will be beyond.

If we were almost bottom of the table last year do u really think we have to shed players ?

I only think we need to shed a player if we can't match a significant offer by another club ie the AA situation of 4 years and very good offer we may have struggled to match........and or if we perceive we are better served ie using the trade for a Hickey .....or like we did with Mummy, Kennedy etc ie to bring on board a couple important emerging 50 game type experienced players we want for 2022 and well beyond

Even if we are topping up primarily for 2022 and 2023 run rather than being long term focused, where is the money going to come from to pay for two ready made 50 game players that are top 22 or close enough to get 15 games each? We are already apparently unable to keep all of Parker, Dawson, Hewitt and Stephens due to cap pressures (partly due to COVID cuts) and it seems we also need to make a call re Reid.

I don't see how if we need to shed a top 22, and maybe some non-minimum salary players (people have suggested Ronke, Gray, Brand) just to keep Dawson and Parker, how we are going to have the salary for two decent top up players. We also have to draft three new players (at low wage) so some of our delistings are not going to net us much/any salary space.

[Auntie.Gerald]

It's just a guess isn't it?

Your guess that we have no money

My guess that another team wants a player of ours over and above what we are prepared to pay and see as fair ?

If that figure is $700kpa we dont evaluate as fair and reasonable for one player would that stand to reason we could bring on board 2 x ready to rock players at $350k each ? Ie the $700k we are not prepared to pay ?

Just like the deal for AA that trumped us at 4yrs

We can offer 3 or 4 years at $300k pa and stepped each year based on games played etc in alignment with their contribution?

[707]

It will be steady as she goes, re-sign Parker, Hewett and Dawson, two ND picks, growth from second and third year players

[Ralph Dawg]

Ralph interesting perspective re a leading mid forward at 190cm not fitting in and or a bull emerging inside mid not fitting in?

You could be right that they don't have any value and don't fit in and or they wouldn't make our best 22?

It probably doesn't matter re what u and I think which players serve us best given we don't know best.......what does matter is giving ourselves the best opportunity to take on the top4 while Kennedy, rampe and Bud are with us in 2022..........obviously rampe will be beyond.

If we were almost bottom of the table last year do u really think we have to shed players ?

I only think we need to shed a player if we can't match a significant offer by another club ie the AA situation of 4 years and very good offer we may have struggled to match........and or if we perceive we are better served ie using the trade for a Hickey .....or like we did with Mummy, Kennedy etc ie to bring on board a couple important emerging 50 game type experienced players we want for 2022 and well beyond

Clearly there are many different permutations and combinations that can occur between now and R1 2022 and I certainly understand where you're coming from. One scenario could be GC swooping in and offering Parker an offer he can't refuse. Or Carlton come through with a big offer for Hewett, Adelaide for Dawson. Any of these would free up a good amount of cap to potentially pursue a Lipinski or Ross type (throw in Constable or Sier).

But all being equal, I'm very happy with our midfield options and would prefer we re-sign who we have rather than shed a few to sign a fringe player from another club.

[greeng]

Dawson is the most important. I would prefer we keep Hewett but if he wants to go then I wish him well. Luke Parker is a champion and understandable that he is at the point of his career where he needs to think about life after footy. If he is serious about wanting $700K a year for 3 years he will be let go. The Swans cant afford it under the salary cap. Shame really.