2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Markwebbos]

Mild chat around Tim English getting pushed out the door/leaving the Dogs as he has underperformed as a ruck and they have an abundance of KPFs with Darcy Jnr to join them next year. After 2016, I don't really like watching any Bulldog games, but does anyone have any views on Tim English and if he'd be a good fit at the Swans?

I understand he's not a very physical ruck but he always seems to be decent against us. I think he'd be a better/more reliable replacement for Sinclair and Naismith and could be a good understudy to Hic

From the sound of it, he's not going to be able to play as #1 ruck (hence Stef Martin etc), he'd be an upgrade on Amartey or McLean as a ruck/forward. I do have serious issues with his action man hair though. I'm sure I'm not alone in that.

Could be a smart pickup, but don't imagine he'll be cheap (and there will be others interested)

[AB Swannie]

The irony of this is (as I posted earlier) is that we took Florent at pick 11 when we could have got English (19), Powell-Pepper and others like Jarrod Berry.

We also took Hayward at 21 and missed Shai Bolton.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing isn’t it? You could go through every draft and poke holes in selections. FWIW, I don’t think SPP or Jarrod Berry are definitely better picks than Ollie anyway. Hayward hasn’t exactly been a spud either.

[Ludwig]

The irony of this is (as I posted earlier) is that we took Florent at pick 11 when we could have got English (19), Powell-Pepper and others like Jarrod Berry.

We also took Hayward at 21 and missed Shai Bolton.

We were 'linked', as they say, to both English and SPP by some of the draft rumour gurus. The other option at pick 11 was Jy Simpkin, who's turned out to be one of the picks of the draft, but hadn't played most of the season due to injury, and Florent had form at the end of the season and a very good championship series and all star game, as did Hayward. Bolton was already taking those high marks, but there were questions about his work rate, which is why he lasted till pick 29.

I would rank both Florent and Hayward in the top 10 out of the first 30 picks in the draft. There have been a few busts and a lot of under-performers from the 2016 draft. I know there has been criticism over these 5 years of both, but outsiders rank them more highly than we seem to on RWO.

BTW, I rank Florent slightly higher than both SPP and Berry, who have both stalled in their progress the past couple of seasons, while Florent has made slow, but steady progress and looks to be pulling ahead.

[bloodspirit]

A point can be made that the Swans management made some major errors in planning and identifying the needs of the club, and if these errors were not made, we could have retained Aliir and signed Hickey as well.

At the end of 2019 we recruited Taylor, Gray and Brand. They've turned out to be a total waste of space. So we were stuck with 3 players last year that didn't need to be recruited and found ourselves unable to meet what was probably a very reasonable salary request from Aliir.

This time corresponded with the hiring of Charlie Gardiner and other major changes in the Swans' management, and perhaps the changes disrupted the lucid thinking at the higher echelons at Swans HQ.

What this post, and some others, either overlook or undervalue is that (a) there is a minimum number of list spots; and (b) there is a minimum wage that applies. Alternatively it may be overlooking that the likes of Taylor, Gray and Brand were on minimum wages.

The point is that not recruiting them wouldn't have saved a dime. Unless, unless we didn't fill our list. But that would be dumb. It is important to fill your list not only for depth but also to maximise the number of players on your list that might develop and turn into a real asset. We cleverly and efficiently do this for minimum wages by having the maximum possible number of rookies. (The opportunity cost of having rookie picks instead of late ND picks is virtually nothing but it makes a modest but real difference to our TPP.) So, my view is that it is folly to diss the recruitment of most base wage level players and especially so if it is being used as a basis for increasing our free cap space.

I think Melican can do a Grundy and take that next step.

Grundys 4 to 5 seasons that started his career at the Swans were so so .........then he really started to hit his strides around 2010/2011

I also think we may bring on board Paddy for a tall defender role or swingman. His field kicking is very good and he could play that lock down role next to Tom.

Lastly it will only be a few games that we need Dawson and or the Lizard to roll back into the back line for height in most seasons. So my sense is that we can cover the backline with those two when required.

.........

My gut feeling is that we may not be able to meet the needs of all current players as we have had pretty much every player pop up on the radar of recruiters this year. Mills will also be in high demand as a mid that could become an elite player within a season or two if he maintains his trajectory improvement.

One player between Stephens, Hayward, Dawson, Hewett, Florent, Gould may take a bigger offer from an interstate club and hey thats football.

..........

On my radar to make the Swans a better team would be a player like :

Jack Ross | AFL

Jack Ross in the few games I have watched him play I felt he could be a good value player to bring to the Swans and has been in a great system last couple of years playing with the best. Ross has a lot of upside in the mids and can go forward like Parker when needed.

OR

Patrick Lipinski | AFL

A strong lead, tough match up at 190cm and can play mid

Great post AG! Love your positivity both generally and in relation to Melican in particular. I hope you're vindicated! And some really constructive suggestions about Ross and Lipinski. Ross in particular isn't one who I have heard about but is a canny suggestion.

I'm not sure we need to cry about the milk until it has been spilt.

• Parker will stay on a 3 year + trigger.
• Dawson will sign for 2 years to take him to free agency. This has possibly already been signed but not announced. Will wait until Parker is over the line before announcing.
• Stephens will stay for 2 more years. He's after opportunities but is no guarantee to get a walk-up start at any other club.
• We will wait on Hewett to see if we want to match his Carlton contract or take the compo.
• Reid will sign for 1-year on significantly less money and will play in reserves unless needed to cover for injuries.

I like your thinking! And I hope you're right even though I'm a little bit less optimistic.

[Ludwig]

What this post, and some others, either overlook or undervalue is that (a) there is a minimum number of list spots; and (b) there is a minimum wage that applies. Alternatively it may be overlooking that the likes of Taylor, Gray and Brand were on minimum wages.

The point is that not recruiting them wouldn't have saved a dime. Unless, unless we didn't fill our list. But that would be dumb. It is important to fill your list not only for depth but also to maximise the number of players on your list that might develop and turn into a real asset. We cleverly and efficiently do this for minimum wages by having the maximum possible number of rookies. (The opportunity cost of having rookie picks instead of late ND picks is virtually nothing but it makes a modest but real difference to our TPP.) So, my view is that it is folly to diss the recruitment of most base wage level players and especially so if it is being used as a basis for increasing our free cap space.

I don't agree that we wouldn't have saved a dime. An alternative would have been to take another 2 low draft picks instead. We don't know what Gray and Brand are on, maybe 200k each, could be more or less, but is definitely more than what 2 draftees would be getting. I don't think it's dumb to leave spots open on the list. It saves some salary cap space, however small, which could be the difference between retaining or letting go of a player like Aliir. It also gives some flexibility the following year.

I think it's fair to question some of the list management decisions made the past couple of years. We lost an AA defender last year and find ourselves in a salary cap bind this year. I'm not questioning any of our draft picks, just other stuff. We got ourselves into a bit of a predicament and we should explore how it happened.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Its a killer blow when a side like us that has finished 7th, following up from a 12th (?) last year, is loosing its rebuilding talent due to salary cap pressure.
salary cap pressure should be only for perenial top 4 teams. We must be paying overs for some players. Or is it just Buddy. ?

I think you need to think beyond Buddy's salary in 2021 , look at it holistically. Sure his salary this year meant there was less for others, but his rigidly applied salary over the last few years made it difficult to front end contracts back then - which has an effect now.

[707]

I think you need to think beyond Buddy's salary in 2021 , look at it holistically. Sure his salary this year meant there was less for others, but his rigidly applied salary over the last few years made it difficult to front end contracts back then - which has an effect now.

Buddy drops $600k from this year to 2022. We like a lot of clubs got wedged when the TPP was suddenly dropped last year, it made an already difficult scenario even worse. I'm sure the team will work their way through it without any required casualties this year.

I'm still perplexed how Carlton keep having cap space after all the big contracts they've signed for their own players and to lure in players from other clubs. Now they're talking Cerra and Hewett! Must be as many Visy ambassadorships at Carlton as there are lucrative property investments at Geelong

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Buddy drops $600k from this year to 2022. We like a lot of clubs got wedged when the TPP was suddenly dropped last year, it made an already difficult scenario even worse. I'm sure the team will work their way through it without any required casualties this year.

While it's simpler to focus on a single year, as previously suggested I think it'd be best to consider Buddy's salary without focussing on a single year/set of circumstances.

I'm still perplexed how Carlton keep having cap space after all the big contracts they've signed for their own players and to lure in players from other clubs. Now they're talking Cerra and Hewett! Must be as many Visy ambassadorships at Carlton as there are lucrative property investments at Geelong

The ability of big clubs to keep recruited big $$$ players makes a mockery of the salary cap.

[Aprilbr]

I believe that the B&F Count is on tonight? If so, Parker is hot favourite to win the Bobby Skilton Medal. I wonder what he might say about his future in his acceptance speech?

[Kafka's Ghost]

I believe that the B&F Count is on tonight? If so, Parker is hot favourite to win the Bobby Skilton Medal. I wonder what he might say about his future in his acceptance speech?

After hearing Luke Parker’s speech, it’s clear he’s invested in the group. The same for Jordan Dawson, who came third in the count. It’s also clear that this is a very strongly bonded and driven team, who are smarting a lot after last week’s loss.

[bloodspirit]

I don't agree that we wouldn't have saved a dime. An alternative would have been to take another 2 low draft picks instead. We don't know what Gray and Brand are on, maybe 200k each, could be more or less, but is definitely more than what 2 draftees would be getting. I don't think it's dumb to leave spots open on the list. It saves some salary cap space, however small, which could be the difference between retaining or letting go of a player like Aliir. It also gives some flexibility the following year.

I think it's fair to question some of the list management decisions made the past couple of years. We lost an AA defender last year and find ourselves in a salary cap bind this year. I'm not questioning any of our draft picks, just other stuff. We got ourselves into a bit of a predicament and we should explore how it happened.

I agree that it's fair to question the list management decisions, especially where they saw us backed into a corner where we were forced to trade away Aliir.

However, I do know with a high level of confidence that Gray was on the minimum level of salary possible (for a player in his situation). I'm not sure that would be more than for a draft pick. Maybe it is. I'm prepared to infer that Brand, and possibly even Taylor, were on similarly low salaries.

[Aprilbr]

After hearing Luke Parker’s speech, it’s clear he’s invested in the group. The same for Jordan Dawson, who came third in the count. It’s also clear that this is a very strongly bonded and driven team, who are smarting a lot after last week’s loss.

Agreed. Luke Parker certainly did not speak like someone who is about to leave!

[TheBloods]

Parkers not going anywhere and no one at the club has any doubt that hes staying

[AnnieH]

Why the actual F hasn't parks been signed up?
What the hell is going on?
Throw money at him. Take money off Buddy if you have to.

[Aprilbr]

Why the actual F hasn't parks been signed up?
What the hell is going on?
Throw money at him. Take money off Buddy if you have to.

We are not permitted to alter the Buddy deal for Cap reasons. We would have to find the money elsewhere. I'm pretty sure the Suns will make a godfather offer for Luke. Other clubs may enter the race too. Luke will have to accept a lower offer if he is to stay at the Swans.