2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Aprilbr]

I do understand that whether a player is contracted or not is a factor, as is the threat of the PSD - the negotiations over Lipinski will be interesting?!? And salary cap dumping can drastically lower a players asking price.

But I think the position a player was taken in the craft is also a factor (Cerra 5, JD 56) and I don't really understand why that is?
Does a club trading FOR a player consider what it might cost them in the draft for someone similar (likewise does Sydney with the asking price)? Given that we've probably only got a 50% chance with a pick, shouldn't we be asking double?

The value put on players heads: Shiel, Tim Kelly, Weller, Bryce Gibbs, Dayne Beams, Adam Treloar (twice) seems to quite random to me. But I suspect there is some method to the madness.

Logically, the draft pick used to select a player in the past should have no bearing on their current value. Its their future potential and contribution to your team that should count. Of course, human nature dictates that we like to think we made a "profit" on a deal such as trading an original 56 pick for a 14 pick. People talk this way a lot in soccer as you might acquire a player for a £20 million transfer fee and then he improves and you sell him for £50 million. That's seen as good business by soccer fans but AFL does not have transfer fees anymore (they did up to the mid-1980s when the national draft was first introduced).

In our system, the draft pick value of a player can rise or fall sharply based on factors such as performance, age, position played. What pick they came to you at is almost irrelevant. For example, GC just announced they will trade Brodie who was a previous early pick. As he has struggled to get a game in recent times his trade value will be very low despite his history.

[stevoswan]

Not harsh at all. We need to be a destination club. Thats what sorts the Richmonds from the Gold Coasts. Losing dawson is akin to Gold coast losing May or Lynch, and puts any serious premiership aspirations in doubt in the next few years.

To be a destination club we need to work out what it takes to keep players like Dawson. It can be more money, or it can be a host of other things. I dont care. We just need to make it happen. Losing him, after all the others weve lost over the past 8 years sends a very bad signal.

We are not and never will be a one player club....he is good, potentially great but we'll see how he handles the weight of expectation he has now put on himself....by choice. Besides, we will make up for him in other ways. Roadrunner is right, once he wants out, there's not much we can do to change his mind. It's not a failure of our list managers that they can't see the future....or read players minds once drafted. It might be to those who like to attribute failure to the club they barrack for.....

[stevoswan]

Richmond were a destination club. Geelong was to some extent to (althought they favoured older "cheaper" players chasing a flag at the end of their career). I think both will now be rolling off the destination list as their flag window has closed and players who stayed for unders, look for the dollars.
I'd say Hawthorn (under clarkson) were also a destination club. We were back in the 2010 to 2016 period.

We are not a destination club at the moment. Allir want out, Papley wanted out but luckily we turned it around. Now Dawson and Hewett want out. I dont know the details of each, but there is a trend there, and at a fundamental level, we do not have player retention right if our 3rd best player in 2021 wants out.

No COLA perhaps? The Swans face many obstacles that clubs in the traditional southern footy states don't. As for our 'third best player', he obviously just wanted more money (after one good season went to his head)....COLA perhaps would have made a difference there....maybe it wouldn't have if his given 'reason' for wanting out is true. Either way, now knowing his motivations, whatever they are, he was not the player we all thought he was.....at least not a loyal Swan. We want players who want to be here, which you might say supports your want for us to be a destination club. I say winning a flag in a year or two should solve that.....and we are on track to do that.

[Blood Fever]

We were ranked 6th in centre clearances this season, btw, just ahead of the Demons.

Surprised to hear that....do they have a stat on the quality of the clearances?

[dimelb]

Develop Amarty as a defender.

He has pace, a great leap, can take a contested mark, reads the play well and provides a good contest.

If we can get him to work hard on his kicking he wouldn't be a bad substitute for Dawson. Not quite the same but not a bad possibility.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Aliir was offered a richer and longer contract than we were prepared to offer so we took the opportunity to get Hickey in the trade

Maybe replace "prepared" with "able"?

Surprised to hear that....do they have a stat on the quality of the clearances?

The raw numbers are a bit like the raw numbers of hitouts, they give some indication but they're certainly not definitive.
So good are the defensive capabilities of contemporary midfielders a lot of clearances can be of only a modest benefit some times.

[Markwebbos]

Maybe replace "prepared" with "able"?


The raw numbers are a bit like the raw numbers of hitouts, they give some indication but they're certainly not definitive.
So good are the defensive capabilities of contemporary midfielders a lot of clearances can be of only a modest benefit some times.

I reckon points scored / conceded from centre clearances would be a reasonable indication of the quality

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Is there such a publicly available stat Mark?

[barry]

Papley wanted out due to personal reasons back in Melbourne that have now passed

Player retention, tick.

Aliir was offered a richer and longer contract than we were prepared to offer so we took the opportunity to get Hickey in the trade

Allir has played to his port contract value. We are now looking for a tall defender.
Player retention, fail.

Hewett doesn't want out, he wasn't offered a contract by us but was offered a substantial 4 year deal by Carlton

We are actually to see Carlton's offer first.
Hewett is not a key player.
Player retention, tentative tick.

Dawson wanted out probably ultimately because of the strain Covid restrictions were placing on his personal circumstances

All those restrictions will be gone next season.
Player retention, fail

So we don't have an exodus of players "wanting out"

We have more than we would like.

[caj23]

Aliir was offered a richer and longer contract than we were prepared to offer so we took the opportunity to get Hickey in the trade


So we don't have an exodus of players "wanting out"

Allir was contracted until the end of 2022, we didn't have to trade him at all, let alone for a pick in the 40's

[Markwebbos]

Is there such a publicly available stat Mark?

Apologies, after suggesting them, I couldn't find anything.

[707]

Is there such a publicly available stat Mark?

Must be, Champion Data record everything

[Markwebbos]

Must be, Champion Data record everything

They don't make it all publicly available

[MattW]

Dawson is more than just a great kick. Obviously Lloyd hasn't watched our games closely to see he is also a tall agile utility player, who can take a mark & kick goals. Perfect modern prototype who is a point of difference for any team.

If Cerra is worth pick 6 plus, surely Dawson is worth more than a pick in the teens.

Exactly. I don't understand Lloyd's apparent renown as a pundit.

[MattW]

They don't make it all publicly available

Bloody annoying/retrograde.