2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[bloodspirit]

I don't think our cap position is as bad as these doomsday scenarios suggest. It's going to be an interesting trade period. While we may have to give up some things (most likely players) we are going to get some good stuff back the other way, whether players or picks. So while the media is fussing about all the players we might lose, I'm prepared to fantasise about who we might get (while agreeing that retention deserves priority over acquisitions).

Importantly, we'll be the ones deciding who to prioritise - and we'll be shedding those that we deem (relatively) expendable. We'll keep those that we think are most important - and that's a good position to be in.

With so many players unsigned we have quite a lot of flexibility to make cap space. Many of those players are on base wages - which doesn't assist us much because, not only do their wages only make a small difference to any cap issues we have, but even if we de-list them, we'll have to replace them with someone who costs just as much (due to minimum list sizes). However even still we will be able to decide who we think we no longer require for depth (e.g. Clarke) and can let go to find a project player replacement who may have more upside.

We can't afford to prioritise Reid, and we have to be prepared to lose him to a better offer.

I also favour shedding Sinclair. As Ludwig has pointed out, we won't lose too much if we rely on the likes of Amartey, McLean and McDonald in his place. And we're much better off spending that salary on a promising ruck prospect between Hickey and McAndrew.

I think Parker has got to be emotionally - even more than financially - invested in Sydney and our team (especially now we are on the cusp of success). Ergo it will require a much better offer to tempt him elsewhere. Of course his manager will be trying to get the best deal for him, and we don't want to embitter Parker by lowballing him too much.

[Markwebbos]

My understanding is that pretty much every club, with a small number of exceptions, is in trouble due to the reduction in the size of the salary cap. And that it's iikely to be a "dull" trade period because no one can afford to bring in players from other clubs.

Which makes me think there will be quite a lot of brinkmanship, and clubs will say to players words to the effect: you aren't going to get more somewhere else. I think it's no longer a sellers market and the players and some of the agents are taking time to adjust.

[bloodspirit]

If we don't sign Dawson, I would go close to giving up on this club.

Not with you on that one. This is a fantastic time to be a Swans supporter. The club has done a great job to get us into the position that we have made finals and looked primed to keep doing it in the years ahead.

They'll do the best they can with list management but the salary cap is a fact of life and designed to help equalise the competition. If Dawson goes it will be a huge loss but we'll cope. Can't see it happening myself.

[Captain]

WTF ltrust me if that's the biggest problem we've got its not too bad , try being a swans supporter under Buckenara champ

Of course losing Dawson is hardly the same as the situation back then.

We have the money to pay Dawson and, provided he wants to stay, it would be madness to let him go.

Also, don't assume anything, champ.

- - - Updated - - -

Not with you on that one. This is a fantastic time to be a Swans supporter. The club has done a great job to get us into the position that we have made finals and looked primed to keep doing it in the years ahead.

They'll do the best they can with list management but the salary cap is a fact of life and designed to help equalise the competition. If Dawson goes it will be a huge loss but we'll cope. Can't see it happening myself.

Of course they have done a great job and at the moment, Dawson hasn't gone so it could be irrelevant.

No issue with the salary cap and that players go. Plenty of others can be traded or cut in order to keep him, that's my point.

Losing Mitchell was very frustrating at the time but we had Parker, JPK, Heeney and Mills to cover. Losing Dawson would be 100 times worse.

The boy is a STAR and needs to be kept at all costs.

[Bangalore Swans]

If Dawson’s going to leave there will never be a better time for a great return.

You can take the Crow’s number 4 pick and maybe more. For a player who was taken at pick 50 odd in the draft, did not make the senior team in his 1st two seasons and has only really been a dominant AFL player in the last 18 months, it would be an outstanding return.

With this years 1st year players all developing well, we can use pick 4 on another outstanding prospect.

[Ludwig]

If Dawson’s going to leave there will never be a better time for a great return.

You can take the Crow’s number 4 pick and maybe more. For a player who was taken at pick 50 odd in the draft, did not make the senior team in his 1st two seasons and has only really been a dominant AFL player in the last 18 months, it would be an outstanding return.

With this years 1st year players all developing well, we can use pick 4 on another outstanding prospect.

You're embarrassing yourself. Take some time off.

[Jimitron5000]

My understanding is that pretty much every club, with a small number of exceptions, is in trouble due to the reduction in the size of the salary cap. And that it's iikely to be a "dull" trade period because no one can afford to bring in players from other clubs.

Which makes me think there will be quite a lot of brinkmanship, and clubs will say to players words to the effect: you aren't going to get more somewhere else. I think it's no longer a sellers market and the players and some of the agents are taking time to adjust.

Bang on. A lot of contracts were signed as the salary cap was increasing. Now it isn't and consequently there isn't as much money to throw around and players who could have have comfortably received $500k pa before would be looking at closer to $400k now. I expect a lot of short term contracts being signed while the market adjusts to new conditions.

[Bangalore Swans]

You're embarrassing yourself. Take some time off.

If Dawson wants to stay and a deal is done at the Swans, I would be delighted. He’s a brilliant player.

If he elects to go because another club is willing to sell the farm to get him then it will be what it will be.

I’m pragmatic. If the Swans can’t get him to stay within reasonable financial bounds then the Dawson ROI needs to be looked at.

Why can’t people look at these things with cold hard pragmatism?

[MattW]

Dawson is a Norm Smith Medallist type. Has a champion's psychology and is elite in all main skills. He'd be top 3 bnf.

I find it hard to believe he'd leave. If he does, we've @@@@@@ the accounting significantly.

[longmile]

My understanding is that pretty much every club, with a small number of exceptions, is in trouble due to the reduction in the size of the salary cap. And that it's iikely to be a "dull" trade period because no one can afford to bring in players from other clubs.

Which makes me think there will be quite a lot of brinkmanship, and clubs will say to players words to the effect: you aren't going to get more somewhere else. I think it's no longer a sellers market and the players and some of the agents are taking time to adjust.

Well said, I think looking at other team's contract situations I think this is more prevalent than we realise.

[Jimitron5000]

If Dawson wants to stay and a deal is done at the Swans, I would be delighted. He’s a brilliant player.

If he elects to go because another club is willing to sell the farm to get him then it will be what it will be.

I’m pragmatic. If the Swans can’t get him to stay within reasonable financial bounds then the Dawson ROI needs to be looked at.

Why can’t people look at these things with cold hard pragmatism?

We're footy fans! We don't do pragmatism, we do emotional!

[Ludwig]

If Dawson wants to stay and a deal is done at the Swans, I would be delighted. He’s a brilliant player.

If he elects to go because another club is willing to sell the farm to get him then it will be what it will be.

I’m pragmatic. If the Swans can’t get him to stay within reasonable financial bounds then the Dawson ROI needs to be looked at.

Why can’t people look at these things with cold hard pragmatism?

I am really trying to be helpful now. I don't often do this.

If your proposal is pragmatic, then shooting yourself in the head to prevent getting Covid is also pragmatic.

It shows a lack of understanding of just how important Dawson is to the Swans next premiership run. He has a unique skill set that cannot be replaced by draft picks or other kinds of players. Everything about your suggestion is just out of sync with what the team is about right now. The only pragmatic result with Dawson to come to terms and sign him up, which I am sure will happen.

Of course you could propose an option where Dawson gets traded, but it's just nonsensical. There is always a risk, however small, that contract talks break down and we are forced to trade Dawson. We can talk about what a deal might look like at that time.

Try thinking about the bigger picture and keep your suggestions within a realistic framework. Then other RWO members will take you seriously and you won't have to face so much criticism.

If you can demonstrate that you know what you're talking about, you might even take a crack at being a clown one day. But lets not get ahead of ourselves.

Good luck.

Ludwig wishes you well.

[Bangalore Swans]

I am really trying to be helpful now. I don't often do this.

If your proposal is pragmatic, then shooting yourself in the head to prevent getting Covid is also pragmatic.

It shows a lack of understanding of just how important Dawson is to the Swans next premiership run. He has a unique skill set that cannot be replaced by draft picks or other kinds of players. Everything about your suggestion is just out of sync with what the team is about right now. The only pragmatic result with Dawson to come to terms and sign him up, which I am sure will happen.

Of course you could propose an option where Dawson gets traded, but it's just nonsensical. There is always a risk, however small, that contract talks break down and we are forced to trade Dawson. We can talk about what a deal might look like at that time.

Try thinking about the bigger picture and keep your suggestions within a realistic framework. Then other RWO members will take you seriously and you won't have to face so much criticism.

If you can demonstrate that you know what you're talking about, you might even take a crack at being a clown one day. But lets not get ahead of ourselves.

Good luck.

Ludwig wishes you well.

I think Dawson is as important to the Swans as you suggest.

I desperately want them to get the deal done.

I was investigating the small prospect that the deal does not get done.

Hawks fans would have been hoping the AFL’s generational player signed on at the end of 2013. He did not and got a generational offer from another club.

If a Hawks supporter has raised this possibility in 2013 and discussed life after Franklin they would have got negative responses.

Hawks went on to win the next two flags.

We are in the trade thread. It’s within realistic framework that some of Parker, Stephens, Dawson, Hewitt and Reid won’t sign on.

[dejavoodoo44]

So there is zero of real 'new' news in all that vomit lol. We all knew that negotiations were still ongoing with Dawson, after he said so much himself a few weeks ago.

We all knew Hewett and Stephens could be potentially on the market. No suprise about that.

And its been reported widely that Parker was after potentially a longer contract then we were willing to offer at this point.

So in reality, Sam Edmund has done nothing but basically consolidate info that was already out there.

Yes, we'll soon be entering my least favourite time of the year on RWO. The time between when we finish playing and the start of trade period. Which is the time where too many people take as gospel, the tweets of journalists that are paid by the clicks that they're bull@@@@ generates. The time where almost every rumour, no matter how ill-sourced, is treated as an imperative that our club must act on. The time where people think that we should cull most of our VFL side, in order to get our hands on players that nobody is offering and draft picks that defy the laws of mathematics.

[mcs]

Yes, we'll soon be entering my least favourite time of the year on RWO. The time between when we finish playing and the start of trade period. Which is the time where too many people take as gospel, the tweets of journalists that are paid by the clicks that they're bull@@@@ generates. The time where almost every rumour, no matter how ill-sourced, is treated as an imperative that our club must act on. The time where people think that we should cull most of our VFL side, in order to get our hands on players that nobody is offering and draft picks that defy the laws of mathematics.

Amen to that deja - and RWO is sane compared to some other forums, let alone the hysterical social media threads (its already been going bonkers today following the latest 'revelations' of Edmunds.