2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[mcs]

That’s pessimistic

We were capable of pinching one this year but for our errant kicking

Its an interesting point in the development cycle we are at. One fraught with dangers of moving 'too soon' to top up, or getting caught alternatively in an endless reliance on youth coming through the ranks.

Roll back 12 months ago and I think most were in agreement that while we expected improvement in season 2021, it was likely to be a year primarily of consolidation and growth, with some upwards movement in the ladder position and the like.

But very few seriously rated us as a decent chance to make the finals, let alone potentially be in the Premiership question.

I don't think, even with better kicking, we would of seriously challenged for the cup this year. But we could easily have gone pretty close too - while Melbourne/Port are the two favourites by a fair distance, I don't think either have a complete air of invincibility about them like some other years for the top teams.

Now we face some form of salary cap 'challenges' (which every club is facing in some regard) that does mean we might need to lose a few experienced players. If we were to lose Hewett, Reid and Parker that would be a fairly significant loss in terms of experience, and on the basis of 2021 performances, both Hewett and Parker would be big losses.

So if we did lose those three just to meet needs for contracts coming up, and didn't replace - then I don't think what Ludwig says is entirely unreasonable in that it could be a step backwards, needed to ensure we are well placed to hang on to current emerging talent as we move forward. Such a view probably fits with an aspiration that I think most would have considered reasonable 12 months ago i.e. the target for the mythical 'premiership window' to open is probably around 2023 (at the earliest) but more likely 2024.

But, given we have progressed so much further this year then most expected, a more optimistic view could suggest that, even with those players going out, we could in 'net terms' be at a point where we could see total performance of the club stay at least at the level we've achieved this year, if not increase a bit further (given natural improvement in the younger players) even if we were to lose those three players. I think its a harder argument to push, but not completely untenable at all.

I actually think we will be pretty quiet in terms of total list changes this off season, as I sense the general feeling around the club may be that we are still maybe truly a year off being really ready to challenge for a premiership at full tilt - although that won't rule out the genuine possibility that we could pinch one if everything was to fall our way.

[AB Swannie]

IMHO I would call Ludwig's assessment realistic.
We performed well above general expectation to reach the finals, but fell (narrowly) at the first hurdle. I don't feel that we were close to pinching one. Hopefully in a couple of years...

It's true that we performed above expectations but that is a reflection on expectations rather than performance. It suggests that we got lucky achieving as well as we did this year. I actually think in many ways we were unlucky and a 7th-placed finish is not reflective of our performance. We were actually a bees proverbial away from making top 4. In many years our record would've been enough to make it. We lost 8 games in total but 5 of those losses were 10 points or less. In other words, in only 3 games out of 23, we got beaten by 2+ goals. Our errant kicking really did screw us over on the weekend - the expected score based on difficulty of kicks etc was a Swans victory 93-65. We may actually look back on this season as the one that got away. Who knows what injuries and setbacks we will have to deal with moving forward.

[bloodspirit]

Andrew and Amiss likely to be gone by our pick.

How about trying to trade our picks 12 and 31 to GC for picks 19 and 21, then go for Conway (25) and Van Rooyen(27). We still get a Ruckman (McCartin's cousin) and a key defender (who looked very good in the U19 Champs).

It's only Cal Twomey, not the gospel, and it's only his 'phantom rankings' not his 'phantom draft'. It's not inevitable that Andrew and Amiss will be gone. I don't mind your idea of swapping with the Suns and drafting those players to fill our needs but I would suggest that we wait until we're nearly on the clock before we pull the trigger.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Its a funny one isnt it

when you have a seriously strong spine like a Parker, a buddy, a Paps and a Rampe anything is possible "IF" injuries dont strike and youth and or a key trade or two fall your way

I suspect we got more uplift from Donny this year than expected and his adjustments super suited our mix of players and their quite attacking instincts. For me this change made such a difference to what i observed week to week and what could come. I calmed down massively with this master stroke of coaching change.

For me Kennedy, Mills and the Lizard were the difference by not being out on the field in 2021 first final

After that it is anyones guess

No Buddy in 2022 and or no Rampe and or no Parker would equally have a tremendous impact on our performance

its a delicate balance and a web of factors

[Ludwig]

Here is a possible 22 for next year with the omissions of Franklin, Kennedy, Reid, Parker and Hewett. This is just an exercise to see what we can put on the ground without some of our older stars and players under contract pressure.

Don't pay too much attention as who is in the starting 18 as opposed to the bench.

B Cunningham T. McCartin P. McCartin
HB Blakey Rampe Fox
C Dawson Mills Mcinerney
HF Gulden Amartey Heeney
F Hayward McDonald Papley
Foll Hickey Rowbottom Warner

Int Lloyd Florent Campbell Wicks

Emerg: Stephens, COR, Sheather, McLean


I think it's a high quality lineup, including the bench. Even the emergencies deserve senior playing time. And it's all without 5 of our biggest names and usual starters.

If Parker and Hewett go FA, then we should have 2 1st round and 2 second round picks in this draft, which should add to the quality of the youth coming through.

I'm not saying it's the ideal situation. I'm only pointing out that even if we have to do a Collingwood cleanout to fix the TPP, I still think we can forge ahead in style.

[707]

McCartin was delisted in 2019. I'm not sure of the rule, but I think he can be signed as a free agent, as he's been out of the game for 2 years. I'm not really sure of the rule, but I think there were similar situations where the player could just sign on with cub of choice. So others on RWO have made similar comments, also without stating the specific rule. So it would be good if someone actually was positive about Paddy's status.

As a DFA, Paddy can be signed in any of the DFA signing periods. We've seen him closer than any other team this season, if we think he's worth a spot, we'll sign him.

The highest rated ruck in the draft is a McCartin Cousin, lets do the family thing and grab them plus Corey Warner :-)

[mcs]

It's true that we performed above expectations but that is a reflection on expectations rather than performance. It suggests that we got lucky achieving as well as we did this year. I actually think in many ways we were unlucky and a 7th-placed finish is not reflective of our performance. We were actually a bees proverbial away from making top 4. In many years our record would've been enough to make it. We lost 8 games in total but 5 of those losses were 10 points or less. In other words, in only 3 games out of 23, we got beaten by 2+ goals. Our errant kicking really did screw us over on the weekend - the expected score based on difficulty of kicks etc was a Swans victory 93-65. We may actually look back on this season as the one that got away. Who knows what injuries and setbacks we will have to deal with moving forward.

Always an interesting discussion. Its interesting those close losses - we had 5 under 10 points last year as well (noting one was that utter turgid game against Richmond where the final gap wasn't a great descriptor of the difference between the teams in terms of quality. We also had 4 close wins this year of under 10 points or less.

So in any given season that split was probably about 'right' per say - I generally think when its under 2 goals difference, in maybe 75% of those games (there are always a few where junk time goals etc mean a 2 goal margin doesn't reflect a particularly close game) then aiming for 50/50 split in those games is probably about right.

The freo loss is one we really probably should rue the most from this season, followed by the original GWS one (because of the way the final goal was scored) and then the 3 truly poor performances (in particular the Wees and Poos and Gold Coast games, but also the second St Kilda game).

Certainly feels like a 'lost opportunity' in some regards - but how much of a one, who knows. Port and Melbourne do look very warm favourites to face off in the Grand Final at this point, and while we gave both a very good contest when we met during the season, we would have still been very much underdogs when we meet them in Prelim/Grand final had it got that far.

But that's what footy is all about - and shows how hard it is to align the pieces for most clubs in most seasons. Makes multiple premierships in a short period of time such a massive achievement (the one thing missing from our two great premiership teams of '05 and '12 was we didn't manage to back it up, although the '05 team got so, so, so close, and the '12 team certainly had their chance.

Here is a possible 22 for next year with the omissions of Franklin, Kennedy, Reid, Parker and Hewett. This is just an exercise to see what we can put on the ground without some of our older stars and players under contract pressure.

Don't pay too much attention as who is in the starting 18 as opposed to the bench.

B Cunningham T. McCartin P. McCartin
HB Blakey Rampe Fox
C Dawson Mills Mcinerney
HF Gulden Amartey Heeney
F Hayward McDonald Papley
Foll Hickey Rowbottom Warner

Int Lloyd Florent Campbell Wicks

Emerg: Stephens, COR, Sheather, McLean

Interesting exercise! The challenge would be with depth adn the invariable injuries that happen along the way. But its still a pretty decent side that you would be disappointed with if it couldn't compete for top eight very strongly.

[Agent 86]

Here is a possible 22 for next year with the omissions of Franklin, Kennedy, Reid, Parker and Hewett. This is just an exercise to see what we can put on the ground without some of our older stars and players under contract pressure.

Don't pay too much attention as who is in the starting 18 as opposed to the bench.

B Cunningham T. McCartin P. McCartin
HB Blakey Rampe Fox
C Dawson Mills Mcinerney
HF Gulden Amartey Heeney
F Hayward McDonald Papley
Foll Hickey Rowbottom Warner

Int Lloyd Florent Campbell Wicks

Emerg: Stephens, COR, Sheather, McLean

All i see is a dead cat bounce. But i like your optimism.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Ludwig I love the exercise but when compared to the likes of Port, Brisvegas, Melbourne etc i think we fall short with that comparison.............which has us a little in no mans land vs a genuine Top4 and then lets see what happens re injuries for all finals teams

But i like the comparison because it probably actually exposes how important key players are to finals success

[Ludwig]

The highest rated ruck in the draft is a McCartin Cousin, lets do the family thing and grab them plus Corey Warner :-)

Conway is McCartin's cousin, but ranked 2nd best ruckman behind Mac Andrew. I wasn't too impressed with Corey Warner in the U19 Championships; he looks just like Chad.

[mcs]

Ludwig I love the exercise but when compared to the likes of Port, Brisvegas, Melbourne etc i think we fall short with that comparison.............which has us a little in no mans land vs a genuine Top4 and then lets see what happens re injuries for all finals teams

But i like the comparison because it probably actually exposes how important key players are to finals success

I think it also partially reflects the fact we 'overachieved' this year in regards to what one would expect to be the usual position for a team with a list in the current phase of development. Compare us to recent premiership squads and its clear we don't have yet the same mix of quality at lower levels (i.e. beyond the top 25-26). But that reflects that we are still very much in a 'list building' phase, with obvious gaps to fill, and time needed for talent to develop further.

2022 will be really interesting (even before taking into account potential trade activity). We could easily see 2021 proven to be an upwards 'aberration' and we drop back a bit next year back towards more where we should be (i.e. edge of the eight), we drop off a fair bit (that isn't unheard of either), we stay around steady on the ladder where we are at, or we show 2021 was just the start and its onwards and upwards quickly (you would suggest into genuine premiership contention in that case). You could make a pretty decent argument in support of any of those scenarios being the most likely outcome!

[cherub]

I think it also partially reflects the fact we 'overachieved' this year in regards to what one would expect to be the usual position for a team with a list in the current phase of development. Compare us to recent premiership squads and its clear we don't have yet the same mix of quality at lower levels (i.e. beyond the top 25-26). But that reflects that we are still very much in a 'list building' phase, with obvious gaps to fill, and time needed for talent to develop further.

2022 will be really interesting (even before taking into account potential trade activity). We could easily see 2021 proven to be an upwards 'aberration' and we drop back a bit next year back towards more where we should be (i.e. edge of the eight), we drop off a fair bit (that isn't unheard of either), we stay around steady on the ladder where we are at, or we show 2021 was just the start and its onwards and upwards quickly (you would suggest into genuine premiership contention in that case). You could make a pretty decent argument in support of any of those scenarios being the most likely outcome!

Are we still "top 6"? This will impact our draw next year. The groupings of 6 probably influence our rise this year, and will probably impact on our ability to achieve as high a place on the ladder next year.

[i'm-uninformed2]

So, there are two ways to look at some of this:

a) until the last fortnight, we had a really good run with injuries. No major names out for extended chunks, bar maybe Reid. Our core 24-28 year old group on the park almost all of the year. So we got as far as we did with a stable, mature core

b) we still have a lot of upside, in that McDonald, Campbell, Warner missed big bits of the year, Rowbottom played unders due to injury-related restrictions, Blakey finally clicked, a few others like Amartey and Stephens know now what they have to do, and blokes like JMac and Gulden will (should) only keep getting better.

I lean to the latter, but have still long thought our window really kicks in 2023 and beyond, if we get the rest of the recruiting puzzle right.

[MattW]

So, there are two ways to look at some of this:

a) until the last fortnight, we had a really good run with injuries. No major names out for extended chunks, bar maybe Reid. Our core 24-28 year old group on the park almost all of the year. So we got as far as we did with a stable, mature core

b) we still have a lot of upside, in that McDonald, Campbell, Warner missed big bits of the year, Rowbottom played unders due to injury-related restrictions, Blakey finally clicked, a few others like Amartey and Stephens know now what they have to do, and blokes like JMac and Gulden will (should) only keep getting better.

I lean to the latter, but have still long thought our window really kicks in 2023 and beyond, if we get the rest of the recruiting puzzle right.

The latter. E.g.:
- Ten players playing their first final and 2, possibly 3, future elite players not playing in that final
- Mills and Franklin missed 5 games
- Last ten weeks on the road.

I don't know about 2023 though. We should have finished 4th and should be better next year.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Ludwig i have this feeling there is only "ONE" Chad !