2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[mcs]

Interested to hear more on MCS’s view that the Swans would be more interested in 2022 draft picks.

MCS, is your view based on the following:

- Academy class of 2022 is stronger than the 2021 class.

- Many junior players in Victoria have regressed due to not being able to play much football.

- Better to not have too many 1st year players in 2022.

If MCS view is sound, why don’t the Swans just ask for the Crows 2022 1st round draft pick in exchange for Dawson. Probably be pick range 5-8 in 2022.

On the salary cap, it is a easy process to rearrange a players contract to pay more money earlier in his contract if you suddenly have more salary cap available one year.

Not sure why you want my opinion haha as I'm not particularly well placed to comment on Academy players - my knowledge just comes from doing a lot of reading, but there are much better placed posters on here that sit much closer to the system who could provide more comprehensive comments. AFL Draft Central more broadly is a great resource for those that haven't seen it (less so about the Swans academy, although bit and pieces do pop up from time to time).

But my understanding is that we have no significant academy related players this year (i.e. ones that would be taken in the main draft), but may have a couple coming through next year/2023 (and potentially F/S as well for 2023). So from that perspective it could make sense to try and bank some future points.

My view around us potentially preferring a future pick is also speculative - there is a lot of uncertainty around this draft. Many 'experts' seem to think there are a few top talents, quite a reasonable even bunch up until say pick 30, and then its really hard to judge beyond that (but not looking like a superstar year as such). Hence, I suspect a lot of teams will only want 3 or 4 picks from this years draft, unless they have a really really strong hand from previous tracking.

Combined with my view that we may be trying to build a bit of 'powder' for want of a better term for next years trade period (noting we have a lot of contracts to deal with as well), it seems to make sense to me that we may go very light handed in this draft per say - and thereby depending on what is offered up by the Adelaide club (whichever one Dawson prefers), we may well see a future element to it. As I said before, I suspect if its Adelaide we might end up with a 2nd rounder this year + a 2nd rounder next year (that would be a baseline okay in terms of valuation), whereas with Port there are obviously players we are interested in that complicates the matter.

That is my attempt to put 2 and 2 together to get 4, but its equally likely it is equal to 557.

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Not quite sure how Carlton can sign anyone right now? The only players that they lost at season's end were Betts, Murphy and Casboult. Eddie was on the rookie list, while Murphy and Casboult were on one year deals. So none were likely to be on big money. And this year, they signed big money extensions for McKay, Walsh and Cripps. The previous year saw a similar deal for Weitering. They also apparently paid over the odds, to lure Saad, Williams, Martin and McGovern.

But somehow they not only have the money for George, they're also thought to be leading the race for the highly sought after Cerra. Doesn't quite add up?

Its called the Carlton 'cardboard sombrero cap'. Expands as needed, as large as needed, and as under the table as needed.

They can get whoever they want in, on whatever $ they want, and noone bats an eyelid........ just lucky they are so poorly managed off the field (and broadly coached as well)...

[dejavoodoo44]

Its called the Carlton 'cardboard sombrero cap'. Expands as needed, as large as needed, and as under the table as needed.

They can get whoever they want in, on whatever $ they want, and noone bats an eyelid........ just lucky they are so poorly managed off the field (and broadly coached as well)...

Yes, it does seem highly likely, that there's a fair few Carlton players, being rewarded handsomely to extol the virtues of cardboard boxes (in a functional monopoly?) Which is a pet hate of mine. Not such much that third party payments happen, but more that the AFL doesn't publish even a general summary of how much of it goes on. I mean, to pluck figures out of the air, if the players from one club are getting an extra two million above the official salary cap, while at another club, it's only half a million, then it's an obvious imbalance. And that imbalance is likely to work in the favour of clubs in traditional AFL markets.

And it also suggests a slight problem with the compensation pick formula. That is, if a fair whack of the new contract, is a third party deal not included in the salary cap, then the original club is being slightly short changed.

[Markwebbos]

That's Visy of Richard Pratt the price-fixer who was declared innocent because he was dying? Never sat well with me that.

[lwjoyner]

are we that short of a quid , we cant afford the 400-450k for hewitt. surely not particularly is we dump some of the players not signed or delisted yet. Is he an unrestricted free agent for us to get an afl pick. I am worried if we just take something other than a first rounder for dawson. surely hes worth a swap of our pick 12 for their pick 4 and some knives thrown in as well like swapping 23 for our 31.

[barry]

are we that short of a quid , we cant afford the 400-450k for hewitt. surely not particularly is we dump some of the players not signed or delisted yet. Is he an unrestricted free agent for us to get an afl pick. I am worried if we just take something other than a first rounder for dawson. surely hes worth a swap of our pick 12 for their pick 4 and some knives thrown in as well like swapping 23 for our 31.

All the facts point to us being in a world of salary cap pain next year. Hopefully not to the extent of Collingwood, but bad none the less.
A combination of a reducing cap due to covid, plus the big backend of Buddy's contract.

Wouldnt suprise me if we defered a bit more than we think of buddy's contract to his last year (2022).

[Auntie.Gerald]

I would be very surprised that $450k pa is all that they would be paying Hewett ........that maybe base plus some game payments etc

Interestingly though - any of our guys who bought homes / apartments last few years prior to 2021 would have absolutely killed it re profit and could be debt free after selling in Sydney and buying in Adelaide

ie a $1mill plus capital gain on a sydney property would set you up nicely in many parts of adelaide

that is massive peace of mind for a player in a family cycle like Hewett or even Dawso

[707]

All the facts point to us being in a world of salary cap pain next year. Hopefully not to the extent of Collingwood, but bad none the less.
A combination of a reducing cap due to covid, plus the big backend of Buddy's contract.

Wouldnt suprise me if we defered a bit more than we think of buddy's contract to his last year (2022).

Completely wrong Barry, Buddy's seasonal amounts were fixed in stone in the AFL's spreadsheet at the time of signing and cannot to be altered in any way. We know that Buddy collected $1.5mill this year and will collect just $900k next year.

World of pain we may have been if Dawson signed to reported $600-650k per year deal we had in front of him but now he's decided to go to SA the extreme pressure will be off hence the rash of re-signings since Dawson declared

Most clubs are very tight due to Covid reductions, except for the magical salary cap at Carlton! and Geelong where new recruits seem to fall into lucrative property deals, nothing to do with the club of course!

[Ocker]

I understand that we only have to match an offer by Carlton to keep George. Surely that means that we only have to match what Carlton offers, not the 3rd party payments?

[TheBloods]

Hewetts a good player but dont need him. We have enough quality mids who are younger

[gloveski]

Not sure why you want my opinion haha as I'm not particularly well placed to comment on Academy players - my knowledge just comes from doing a lot of reading, but there are much better placed posters on here that sit much closer to the system who could provide more comprehensive comments. AFL Draft Central more broadly is a great resource for those that haven't seen it (less so about the Swans academy, although bit and pieces do pop up from time to time).

But my understanding is that we have no significant academy related players this year (i.e. ones that would be taken in the main draft), but may have a couple coming through next year/2023 (and potentially F/S as well for 2023). So from that perspective it could make sense to try and bank some future points.

My view around us potentially preferring a future pick is also speculative - there is a lot of uncertainty around this draft. Many 'experts' seem to think there are a few top talents, quite a reasonable even bunch up until say pick 30, and then its really hard to judge beyond that (but not looking like a superstar year as such). Hence, I suspect a lot of teams will only want 3 or 4 picks from this years draft, unless they have a really really strong hand from previous tracking.

Combined with my view that we may be trying to build a bit of 'powder' for want of a better term for next years trade period (noting we have a lot of contracts to deal with as well), it seems to make sense to me that we may go very light handed in this draft per say - and thereby depending on what is offered up by the Adelaide club (whichever one Dawson prefers), we may well see a future element to it. As I said before, I suspect if its Adelaide we might end up with a 2nd rounder this year + a 2nd rounder next year (that would be a baseline okay in terms of valuation), whereas with Port there are obviously players we are interested in that complicates the matter.

That is my attempt to put 2 and 2 together to get 4, but its equally likely it is equal to 557.

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Its called the Carlton 'cardboard sombrero cap'. Expands as needed, as large as needed, and as under the table as needed.

They can get whoever they want in, on whatever $ they want, and noone bats an eyelid........ just lucky they are so poorly managed off the field (and broadly coached as well)...

Are we heading back to the old brown paper bag glory days for Carlton . Was one of the reasons the draft was brought in . Now players can basically nominate a team of choice and get there 80 percent of the time even if contracted . 99% of the time if out of contract . Salary cap is a joke as well AFL needs to balance this with allowing clubs to trade players to other clubs


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[The Runner]

Hewetts a good player but dont need him. We have enough quality mids who are younger

This seems like the logic the club is using. It's not appearing to be cap related, but just him being surplus to our needs over the coming few years.
I'm surprised that's the case, as I really rate Hewett. But I haven't sat down and looked at what our midfield will be like in 2 years once the kids are further developed either.

[Markwebbos]

For a long time we've had a problem with the lack of pace of our inside / centre square mids: Parker, Kennedy, Hewett etc. It's been a long-term project to replace them with quicker and more explosive players such as The Chad, Florent, Stephens, RB etc. I think Hewett is a victim of that and of the move of the not particularly fleet of foot Mills to the midfield (at the start of the year they had swapped positions).

I think the club has decided (as some of here have too) that we can only carry two slowish inside mids and those are Mills and Parker. Hewett is effectively surplus to requirements. And taking a spot that could be given to a younger, quicker player. Even if there is short term pain with the younger mids, there's an expectation of longer term gain.

I also suspect the club has some means of plotting the trajectory of a midfielder from draftee to beast and is reasonably confident that we'll have developed the player(s) by the end of 2022... And as a backup may be saving up picks and $$$ for a raid a year from now, to plug any gaps on our list.

[TheBloods]

This seems like the logic the club is using. It's not appearing to be cap related, but just him being surplus to our needs over the coming few years.
I'm surprised that's the case, as I really rate Hewett. But I haven't sat down and looked at what our midfield will be like in 2 years once the kids are further developed either.

We will have Mills Gulden , Chad, Jmac, Campbell Florent , maybe Stephens . It will be an exciting group and we wont want to move any of them out for a decent but run of the mill defensive mid like Hewett . Good player just not the right fit for us , will do well at Carlton

[Bangalore Swans]

We will have Mills Gulden , Chad, Jmac, Campbell Florent , maybe Stephens . It will be an exciting group and we wont want to move any of them out for a decent but run of the mill defensive mid like Hewett . Good player just not the right fit for us , will do well at Carlton

Maybe even Corey Warner. If he was still on the board when the Swans have a pick, they would probably consider it.

More advanced than Chad at the same age according to the midfield coach who has worked with both of them.

I think having both brothers would stifle the go home factor.

[Markwebbos]

Tom Morris had this to say about Port putting Ladhams on the table

Tom Morris' mega trade update on the key forward landscape, Riccardi, Ladhams, Talia and more

“I think it’s a nice tactic from Port Adelaide to show Sydney and Jordan Dawson that they can get a trade done with a player involved as well … they can then get Dawson to the club without giving up too much in terms of draft picks.”

Hhmmmmm