2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Markwebbos]

Firstly, it's been reasonably well established that the chances of Adelaide not getting Dawson in the PSD are minuscule. So the probability is that it will show that letting a player go to the PSD is a very bad strategy. Hately and Martin going through the PSD to their clubs of choice hasn't discouraged anyone, and only reinforces the notion that a successful recruitment using the PSD is a good strategy and likely to be used more often. If Dawson goes through the PSD to Adelaide it will be yet another example of this and encourage more of the same.

To build a long term strategy on the very small hope that North, who are the only team ahead of Adelaide with cash, would undercut Adelaide in the PSD is a very high risk for a dubious reward. It's always been possible for some team to step in front of the team wanting the player in the PSD, but history shows this almost never happens.

There's a much higher probability that Bangalore Swans will post that everyone should watch the college football games between Alabama v. Texas A&M and Oklahoma v. Texas, than it is that North would step in and swoop on Dawson before Adelaide. Those were 2 great football games btw.

I wrote: "there's no point sending him to the Crows via the PSD. But there is if the Kangaroos will pick him up" And explained why. I agree there's a strong risk it won't happen, but I've assumed the Swans have done their homework before going down that path.

[AppleCore]

Are they being traded as well? I hadn't heard about that.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean. Can we stop the loss of McDonald and Warner by sending Dawson to Adelaide through the PSD, or by not sending Dawson to Adelaide through the PSD?

McDonald, Warner, Stephens, and Gould are young players striving to establish careers in AFL football. Based on their performances thus far, it seems reasonable to predict that all of them will play important roles in the Swans' future. And yet, there is the disquieting concern that all are from two-team states, other than NSW, where one team is currently weak and the other relatively stronger. In addition, the teams in these pairs (i.e. Port and Adelaide and Freo and Weagles) likely have considerably more incentive to deal fairly with each other than with a team like the Swans that is far away. Hence, the fear that the current scenario will repeat.
The Dawson saga has attracted a lot of media attention (even in Melbourne) and the longer it continues the more comment it will attract. It is blatantly obvious (possibly even to the AFL hierarchy) that, as noted by others, the finish of an AFL contract has morphed into Free Agency. The Dawson situation may provide the adverse comment that forces the AFL to act. Such action probably wouldn't help us retain Dawson, but may help us keep those mentioned above.

[Ludwig]

I wrote: "there's no point sending him to the Crows via the PSD. But there is if the Kangaroos will pick him up" And explained why. I agree there's a strong risk it won't happen, but I've assumed the Swans have done their homework before going down that path.

Since Adelaide have made remarks that they could take Dawson to the PSD, it infers that they don't believe North is a threat to undercut them. The strategy of brinkmanship only works if Adelaide believe North might take him. It doesn't matter what other people believe.

[Ludwig]

McDonald, Warner, Stephens, and Gould are young players striving to establish careers in AFL football. Based on their performances thus far, it seems reasonable to predict that all of them will play important roles in the Swans' future. And yet, there is the disquieting concern that all are from two-team states, other than NSW, where one team is currently weak and the other relatively stronger. In addition, the teams in these pairs (i.e. Port and Adelaide and Freo and Weagles) likely have considerably more incentive to deal fairly with each other than with a team like the Swans that is far away. Hence, the fear that the current scenario will repeat.
The Dawson saga has attracted a lot of media attention (even in Melbourne) and the longer it continues the more comment it will attract. It is blatantly obvious (possibly even to the AFL hierarchy) that, as noted by others, the finish of an AFL contract has morphed into Free Agency. The Dawson situation may provide the adverse comment that forces the AFL to act. Such action probably wouldn't help us retain Dawson, but may help us keep those mentioned above.

This is all quite reasonable. We all fear losing players to go home factors, more money, or whatever. But I can't make a link between those possible future outcomes and what we do with the Dawson trade. There's nothing that tells me that however the Dawson saga turns out will influence what happens with these other players. I just can't make the link between the tactics we employ with the Dawson trade and how things play out with the retention of other players.

[Nico]

I don’t know about wearing suspenders but if I was a betting man, I’d be gambling that the deal will be done late Wednesday.

The most intriguing thing about this standoff to me is; what "rabbit hole" they will go down to thrash this out. Could it be that Bugs or Peter have the solution.

[Aprilbr]

This is all quite reasonable. We all fear losing players to go home factors, more money, or whatever. But I can't make a link between those possible future outcomes and what we do with the Dawson trade. There's nothing that tells me that however the Dawson saga turns out will influence what happens with these other players. I just can't make the link between the tactics we employ with the Dawson trade and how things play out with the retention of other players.

I am totally with Ludwig on this one. Whether JD gets to Adelaide via the PSD or via a trade will have squat to do with what happens with McDonald etc in the future. Some people talk about showing "backbone" by letting him walk into Adelaide's arms via the PSD but I think that such an approach would be better described as stubborn or naiive, maybe even stupid.

Let's hope a deal is brokered at the death. This is still a probable outcome. We won't receive the top 10 pick outcome that we initially coveted but a late future first rounder and maybe a pick swap for second rounders would be a palatable outcome in the circumstances where we have an out of contract player in a trading system that heavily favours the player.

[Meg]

We will get the best deal we can for Jordan, learn our lesson and move on.

‘learn our lesson’ ..... what lesson is that?

Only draft players from NSW in future??

[Bangalore Swans]

‘learn our lesson’ ..... what lesson is that?

Only draft players from NSW in future??

In my opinion, the lesson is to trade young interstate players one year before their contract is up if they don’t recommit to the Swans?

Say to Chad or J-Mac. We appreciate and value you in our football club, but we won’t have you here in the final year of your contract if you don’t recommitt. We as a club are not doing the Jordan Dawson dance again.

There are three choices boys:

1) Sign onto a new contact and preferably to your free agency year at which point you have earnt the industry rights to make your own choice.

2) We trade you to the best bid with one year remaining on your contract.

3) You come back and we play you in the reserves for the season or to when you recommit.

You will all say this is too hardcore. Even TheBloods will say this is too harsh but in the words of Cameron Frye “the Swans have to take a stand”

[liz]

‘learn our lesson’ ..... what lesson is that?

Only draft players from NSW in future??

I think the lesson is that if you can’t draft locally draft

a) players from SA, because no-one ever wants to go back there once they’ve escaped; and/or

b) players from country regions so the lure of mama’s home cooking isn’t a pull homewards.

Oh wait…

[troyjones2525]

BTW not sure if anyone else caught the U19 game today between S.A. and W.A. (I watched the first half) but I see Corey Warner (brother of Chad) played ok.

He had a bit of it on the wing in the first half but I didn't think he used the ball too well. He has good breakaway speed though and a penetrating left foot so I wouldn't be disappointed to see us pick him up with a late pick or rookie selection if he's available. Would go a long way to help us keep Chad too! [emoji12]

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[Goal Sneak]

This is a fairly unique situation with the club being caught unaware of JD's desire to leave. It stings a lot more due to his form last season.

The way I see it there's no real point in sending him to the PSD. We can try and be tough negotiators but the AFL and probably just about everyone in Adelaide have little sympathy for our situation. I don't like the idea of trying to corner him into staying. He wants to play for the Crows. Even if he was to sign on for a further 2 years, it would be strange knowing that he was just biding his time. When he had to turn off his social media, it probably helped solidify the decision. We should get what we can and if that is totally inadequate, we can argue our point to the AFL regarding out of contract players. But get something!

Sydney have a solid model for recruiting and retaining interstate players. We've done pretty well out of offering a professional environment away from the fishbowl life in other States. We should be fairly confident to back ourselves to retain the young interstate players we want to keep.

I'm not too sure what the lesson out of this one would be, don't get blindsided?

[AppleCore]

I think the lesson is that if you can’t draft locally draft

a) players from SA, because no-one ever wants to go back there once they’ve escaped; and/or

b) players from country regions so the lure of mama’s home cooking isn’t a pull homewards.

Oh wait…

Too funny! A year ago, many on this site were urging that the Swans recruit South Australians and, where possible, ignore Victorians. Now South Australians are the villains.

[KSAS]

Looking at the sequence of events I'm now wondering what has made Jordan change his mind so quickly from committing to new signing a new contract & then wanting to return home. It appears the SA clubs only became involved when they got a whiff of this, rather than them being the instigators.

Only knowing Dawson as a footy player & not the person, he might be one of those quiet types who keeps things to himself as they're so uncomfortable with any sort of confrontation, hence not giving club any indication of his changing mind in his season exit interview. This may also explain in part Longmire's recent private phone call with him, to find out what's going on in his head as a father figure rather than as coach, in a non confrontational manner. I recall Longmire had this "fatherly" approach with Papley who admitted later played a part in him deciding to stay when his family situation had settled. Curious to see how much influence Longmire's chat may've had, who as a person I admire so much & not just as coach.

[Auntie.Gerald]

I guess the logic was why would u want to return to 60 degree summers in Adelaide and not much to do

The Paps, Jones, Mitchell, AA wanting to leave, has left a bit of scar tissue for a lot of Sydney fans. I suppose some of us feel a little stress and or frustration with a perceived concern re keeping talent here in Sydney.

The last 4 years or so we have seen solid players move on and maybe that is what is concerning along with a stack of young talent from interstate that we won't want to lose ie Warner, McDonald, Stephens, Gould, Hayward, Florent, Paps

Ironically most we have let go and decided not to keep. Is Dawso the first player we can't actually retain?

Are we just buying time while trying to find a replacement that would be suitable as we have been blind sided and are no where near close to landing another key player? Ie we need to determine what that prospective player wants and or what their club really wants?

Membrey
Nanny
Mitchell
Hannes
Jones
AA
Hewett
Dawso?

For me personally the Dawso situation hurts because we are right in the window with very important players still our squad ie like the two that are our on our RWO homepage ie Bud and Kennedy.

So loosing Dawso right now hurts alot due to he being a very strong player and a player that gives us so much flexibility down that left side comr finals series.

Originally Adelaide actually said they wanted him front of centre and maybe that is also a strong appeal because at the swans he is mainly wing or HBF.

Usually it is not just one thing but a few reasons for leaving or staying.......mums cooking, kids in the near future, 5 year contract, covid19 restrictions in pre season not impacted, wellbeing, parents / family health concerns and not being able to see each other interstate easily in a covid19 world etc

[The Runner]

Living in Sydney (particularly the CBD and eastern suburbs, is not as attractive as it was 2 years ago. I get why moving back to a regional town on a city wage looks more appealing than previously.