2017 trading, drafting, list management

[Boddo]

There are so many footy journos in Melbourne. It means that to justify their jobs they have to invent stories. Some journos are ethical but there is a lot of nonsense written and broadcast. Gullible public fall for it.

It's not just Melbourne, have you ever read the garbage rucci writes in Adelaide or Hagdorn in Perth. I'm pretty sure a fair few of em just troll forum sites n then use it as click bait. This story of Martin to Sydney started as a joke on bf months ago n then like I said progressed down the line. But like I said atleast Niall did what a journalist should do and that is go to the source n get a confirmation either way. He did the same last year and got an indication from Sydney that we were not looking at trading anyone in. To me that's what journalism is. Not muck racking that you get from so called journalists.

[707]

Nice analysis of GWS by Mug Punter. I still think GWS will get their act together and win multiple flags, far too much talent on their list, way more than any other side and it shows with their stunning ball movement in may games.

This year is the first year they don't have multiple high picks so for the first time there won't be an injection of elite talent but they could still get high picks if players are traded out, Kelly, Smith, Hopper are the ones talked about.

Not sure how they are keeping it under the salary cap, we know Cameron is on as good as $1mill/year and all those very high draft picks would be on hefty money too you would think. Maybe that's why they keep trading out players, so they can replace them with high draft picks that are on under $100k for their first two years.

Think this year with a bulging cap, no cheap academy guns and no high draft picks could be the most interesting trade period yet for GWS. I'm sure Carlton will take another player or two off their hands to help the GWS cap problems :-)

[Boddo]

My understanding is that effectively all concessions to GWS finished last year (some were phased out ahead of time) in light of their success last year and they run a normal size.

The GWS situation is interesting and it may well be the case that the AFL under Demetriou got their concessions almost spot on.

Many of us, and I was extremely vocal, thought that the AFL had generated a monster and that they would simply make a mockery of the comp for many years.

I don't think that's going to happen for the following reasons:

(a) Reality is hitting big time re their cap space. I know they probably are still benefitting from some frontloaded deals for the likes of Scully and Ward but they have a huge number of players that must be worth close to a million on the open market (Cameron, Patton, Shiel, Greene, Kelly, Cogniglio). I find it hard to believe that they will be able to keep more than three or four tops of these guys

(b) Their list is getting old - the players they really rely on in trouble will be the following ages by the end of season 2018 - Davis (28) Ward (28) Griffin (32) Deledio (31) Shaw (32) and Mumford (32)

(c) The draft gravy train is over - for all their picks they also had the following misses from the draft - Hoskin-Elliot (4) Tyson (3) Sumner (10) Adams (13) O'Rourke (2) Plowman (3) Jaksch (13) Boyd (1) Pickett (4) and Ahern (7) are all below par for the slot in the draft nowithstanding some are quite decent players. Their drafting was a turkey shoot - of last years crop Taranto looks good and the other kids will take time. There is absolutely no guarantee that what they get for Kelly they will be able to replace longer term via what they get from a trade

(d) Free Agency looms - enough said, especially when their older stars they recruited on overs because of their squad demographics start to retire at the same time.

(e) They will have to pay overs for players to stay there compared to what other clubs could probably keep them. The lack of interest in their academy will come back and bit them I believe.

and Finally

(f) Their culture sucks. A bunch of over paid Gen Y millionaires by the age of 21 who have had everything handed onto their plate their entire football life. Any club that has Greene, Shaw and Stevie J clearly doesn't care who they have on their list. In terms of preferred destinations I'd say they are right down in the bottom 2-3 clubs.

If I was the AFL I'd be concerned about GWS. They'll probably bounce back and they may still win the flag but if they do start to slide and heaven forbid even miss the finals watch they instant millionaires start to leave the sinking ship.

Far from being the start of a dynasty it is entirely possible that GWS may have peaked last year and missed their big chance of an AFL sponsored flag

A lot of what you have wrote applied to us not that long ago. Cap space is all we heard about n Franklin would rip our list apart with how much we're paying him. I don't think their list is old, if you look at what they have coming through (Cameron, Patton, Shiel, Greene, Kelly, Cogniglio) they don't look old to me. Every club burns picks, look at how many first rounders we've had bust in the last ten years or even worse ask Richmond supporters about early picks. FA won't be that bad just like us we payed big money for Tippet n Franklin n virtually have kept our list together. From the outside looking in it does look like their culture "sucks" but how do we know that internally. I've heard a range of stories how the bloods culture sucks n is a manafactured thing that's only a decade old. I disagree of course. When it comes to Gen Y sorry that's just how they are. Entitled. They win a premiership or 2 n they'll be a top destination club easy. I remember when we paid overs to get players the caliber of Lockett, Roos, Maxfield n Dyson but it turns n turns very quickly. Back in 05 Hawthorn were no destination club n then they could attract talent very easily after 08. There is no way with the talent on that list that GWS will fall off a cliff. Maybe in ten years but by then you'll have your rusted on support. I hate them as much as you but whether we like it or not they are here for the long haul n will outlast our lifetimes. I've only wrote this because this is pretty much what I'd hear in person n on radio when I lived in Melbourne about us.

[Boddo]

Good reading from Roos in regards to Mitchell

Tom Mitchell Hawthorn Sydney AFL trades SuperCoach

[Mug Punter]

A lot of what you have wrote applied to us not that long ago. Cap space is all we heard about n Franklin would rip our list apart with how much we're paying him. I don't think their list is old, if you look at what they have coming through (Cameron, Patton, Shiel, Greene, Kelly, Cogniglio) they don't look old to me. Every club burns picks, look at how many first rounders we've had bust in the last ten years or even worse ask Richmond supporters about early picks. FA won't be that bad just like us we payed big money for Tippet n Franklin n virtually have kept our list together. From the outside looking in it does look like their culture "sucks" but how do we know that internally. I've heard a range of stories how the bloods culture sucks n is a manafactured thing that's only a decade old. I disagree of course. When it comes to Gen Y sorry that's just how they are. Entitled. They win a premiership or 2 n they'll be a top destination club easy. I remember when we paid overs to get players the caliber of Lockett, Roos, Maxfield n Dyson but it turns n turns very quickly. Back in 05 Hawthorn were no destination club n then they could attract talent very easily after 08. There is no way with the talent on that list that GWS will fall off a cliff. Maybe in ten years but by then you'll have your rusted on support. I hate them as much as you but whether we like it or not they are here for the long haul n will outlast our lifetimes. I've only wrote this because this is pretty much what I'd hear in person n on radio when I lived in Melbourne about us.

Not sure the similarities are that close but I get your points.

For sure Franklin created cap space squeeze but I think that was a deliberate calculated gamble by the club. I'm convinced we do something with our list management that keeps us ahead of the curve with most of the other clubs. Have you read Moneyball? The movie is good but the book is unbelievable - do yourself a favour and get a copy as I think you'd enjoy it. I wonder if we have a slightly similar approach but I'm sure all clubs have looked at it. Maybe GWS have it all sorted out but for some reason I just feel their list is very vulnerable

So, yeah Buddy created cap issues and we paid a short term price but really Mummy (would have loved him out there in 2014) and Tom were the only two we really would have wanted to keep. And Tom, whilst having a ripping year at the Hawks seems to have been replaced well by a group of players doing more heavy lifting in the inside midfield, kind of like how the Oakland A's replaced Jason Giambi in Moneyball.

The main difference I see is that we do the development work so well. We grow talent, it's why we have a backline that on a combined level that did not draw a single ND draft pick, think about that it is a remarkable statistic. We also have a lot of unfashionable players - think Lloyd, Melican, Towers, Smith, Robbo, Harry and even Reg and Rampe to an extent. I know all clubs have these but I think we have more than most and they are surely cheaper and easier to retain.

We also of course have the academy which we have invested in heavily and GWS have not due to their arrogance and ignorance and I think they will pay the price for that long term just as I think Brisbane will benefit longer term.

Re your take on GWS only time will tell how they develop.

Posters on here not from Sydney, and I'm not being patronising here, maybe don't quite grasp how big their job is. AFL is woefully weak in the Western Sydney region, the Swans areas of the North and East are the game's heartland here and always have been. Largely socioeconomic, North Shore Mums don't want their little darlings playing a rough game against 18 stone 12 year old Tongans and I don't blame them. And soccer and NRL are very very strong and the NRL, despite being an appalling game, has a very loyal and resilient fanbase that the AFL do not respect IMO.

I don't like them but I do actually think they have been good for the game in Sydney so I acknowledge that. I just think they have a very hard road to travel once their initial concession benefits dilute as is happening now.

[Boddo]

Not sure the similarities are that close but I get your points.

For sure Franklin created cap space squeeze but I think that was a deliberate calculated gamble by the club. I'm convinced we do something with our list management that keeps us ahead of the curve with most of the other clubs. Have you read Moneyball? The movie is good but the book is unbelievable - do yourself and get a copy as I think you'd enjoy it. I wonder if we have a slightly similar approach but I'm sure all clubs have looked at it. Maybe GWS have it all sorted out but for some reason I just feel their list is very vulnerable

So, yeah Buddy created cap issues and we paid a short term price but really Mummy (would have loved him out there in 2014) and Tom were the only two we really would have wanted to keep.

The main difference I see is that we do the development work so well. We grow talent, it's why we have a backline that on a combined level that did not draw a single ND draft pick, think about that it is a remarkable statistic. We also have a lot of unfashionable players - think Lloyd, Melican, Towers, Smith, Robbo, Harry and even Reg and Rampe to an extent. I know all clubs have these but I think we have more than most and they are surely cheaper and easier to retain.

We also of course have the academy which we have invested in heavily and GWS have not due to their arrogance and ignorance and I think they will pay the price for that long term just as I think Brisbane will benefit longer term.

Re your take on GWS only time will tell how they develop.

Posters on here not from Sydney, and I'm not being patronising here, maybe don't quite grasp how big their job is. AFL is woefully weak in the Western Sydney region, the Swans areas of the North and East are the game's heartland here and always have been. Largely socioeconomic, North Shore Mums don't want their little darlings playing a rough game against 18 stone 12 year old Tongans and I don't blame them. And soccer and NRL are very very strong and the NRL, despite being an appalling game, has a very loyal and resilient fanbase that the AFL do not respect IMO.

I don't like them but I do actually think they have been good for the game in Sydney so I acknowledge that. I just think they have a very hard road to travel once their initial concession benefits dilute as is happening now.

I've read the book n watched the movie. We do it so well because we put a lot of good people in important positions n like I've said before we spend a lot more on development than most clubs. We spend money wisely. I've got no doubt it's a massive job in front of GWS. I've spent a bit of time in WS when I used to fight n it's a long haul but I think they are prepared for that. We were the guinea pigs n now they are trying to do in 15 years what took us 30. Honestly I'd be more concerned about Gold Coast if I was a footy follower. That place is a sporting grave yard that started off with drug infested toxic culture n now are paying for a lot of mistakes.

[Boddo]

Might explain his poor form at the under 18 championships

Top draft prospect set for knee surgery - M.afl.com.au

[Mug Punter]

I've read the book n watched the movie. We do it so well because we put a lot of good people in important positions n like I've said before we spend a lot more on development than most clubs. We spend money wisely. I've got no doubt it's a massive job in front of GWS. I've spent a bit of time in WS when I used to fight n it's a long haul but I think they are prepared for that. We were the guinea pigs n now they are trying to do in 15 years what took us 30. Honestly I'd be more concerned about Gold Coast if I was a footy follower. That place is a sporting grave yard that started off with drug infested toxic culture n now are paying for a lot of mistakes.

Gold Coast are a worry I agree and unlike GWS they don't have a lot of upside, the best they can be is a poor man's Geelong, a small town team in a non football market. I do think they have a good stadium deal though that helps.

One thing that makes us different from GWS, apart from the headstart we got in Sydney, is the South Melbourne heritage. It meant we didn't have to build a complete supporter base from scratch and a lot of old South people have stayed loyal due to the fact we respect the Melbourne heritage.

And we did have early success well in excess of GWS. I know we had that poor patch under Buckenara in the early 90s when we were dire, badly managed and almost broke but on the whole it was a blip. I remember the Edelsten days well, and I know they were a mirage, but in terms of harnessing support they blow GWS out of the water. In our first year in Sydney we averaged 17,659 and by 1986 they were 27,705. They then plateaued to about the current GWS levels until we started to rebuild.

[Boddo]

Probably explains why our cap is tight even with the extra 20%

Several clubs mystified by veteran TPP change - M.afl.com.au

McVeigh was probably costing the club next to nothing

[Boddo]

Gold Coast are a worry I agree and unlike GWS they don't have a lot of upside, the best they can be is a poor man's Geelong, a small town team in a non football market. I do think they have a good stadium deal though that helps.

One thing that makes us different from GWS, apart from the headstart we got in Sydney, is the South Melbourne heritage. It meant we didn't have to build a complete supporter base from scratch and a lot of old South people have stayed loyal due to the fact we respect the Melbourne heritage.

And we did have early success well in excess of GWS. I know we had that poor patch under Buckenara in the early 90s when we were dire, badly managed and almost broke but on the whole it was a blip. I remember the Edelsten days well, and I know they were a mirage, but in terms of harnessing support they blow GWS out of the water. In our first year in Sydney we averaged 17,659 and by 1986 they were 27,705. They then plateaued to about the current GWS levels until we started to rebuild.

Without that stadium deal Gold Coast would be up that well known creek. The heritage from South is a massive advantage that I think many people underestimate. I think in the very early days we had an advantage in that no club really had a routine on traveling interstate to play n only done it once a year & we did it every second week but by 85 they'd caught up n learnt. N it shows on ladder position n results. The Edelsten days were what we needed at the time n is very underestimated how important it was because without the then vfl seeing how it could really work in Sydney we may have never seen that second chance we got when the AFL got on board in the Barassi era. Our history is important n I don't think many younger supporters take the time to learn where we came from n how hard it's been. There's your bloods culture. Built from decades of hard work.

[Mug Punter]

Without that stadium deal Gold Coast would be up that well known creek. The heritage from South is a massive advantage that I think many people underestimate. I think in the very early days we had an advantage in that no club really had a routine on traveling interstate to play n only done it once a year & we did it every second week but by 85 they'd caught up n learnt. N it shows on ladder position n results. The Edelsten days were what we needed at the time n is very underestimated how important it was because without the then vfl seeing how it could really work in Sydney we may have never seen that second chance we got when the AFL got on board in the Barassi era. Our history is important n I don't think many younger supporters take the time to learn where we came from n how hard it's been. There's your bloods culture. Built from decades of hard work.

In the late 80s and early 90s the club seriously considered rebranding the club with a change in colours to the two blues to reflect NSW state colours.

At the time we were in such a mess I think I may have been in favour of it but in hindsight I am so glad we chose against it and continue to respect the heritage. To be fair I was only young then and probably didn't appreciate the rich history of the club.

Barassi really did a wonderful job in the few years he was at the club, he had some help of course but his contribution is often undervalued I feel.

[Boddo]

In the late 80s and early 90s the club seriously considered rebranding the club with a change in colours to the two blues to reflect NSW state colours.

At the time we were in such a mess I think I may have been in favour of it but in hindsight I am so glad we chose against it and continue to respect the heritage. To be fair I was only young then and probably didn't appreciate the rich history of the club.

Barassi really did a wonderful job in the few years he was at the club, he had some help of course but his contribution is often undervalued I feel.

Also talk of changing the nickname to redbacks. N the worst of all merge with the Bears n be known as the east coast bears with half the games in nsw n the other half in Queensland. When you look back at that one it's so laughable. Barassi was a very good figurehead. Plus the people to thank are the likes of Mike Willessee, Basil Sellers, Peter Weinert and Craig Kimberley. Without them there is no club. Plus stalwarts like Bayes who rode it all the way through. It's a collective. It's why I say all younger supporters should read through our history n you'll see the bloods culture in front of you.

[KTigers]

I am more positive about GWS than most people here, but I still think it's going to take a long time to cement their
place in the AFL landscape. Culturally western Sydney is a rapidly changing beast, and it's a massive challenge for
not just them, but footy in general and for that matter, all the other codes to react to this. And it's not just
Sydney, total attendance at home-and-away games over the whole comp has barely changed for the past 12 years.
The population of the country has gone up quite a bit in that time.
Footy traditionalists have this notion of what defines the successful club, but even that might be up for grabs in the
future. Collingwood only got 22,000 to a home game last weekend, I'm sure the club is not slitting their wrists just
yet, but instances like this suggest the rusted on component of supporters is not what it was. There are so many
other things competing for people's attention and money these days, that support for footy teams may be measured
in a different way to what we're used to in the future.

[Boddo]

I am more positive about GWS than most people here, but I still think it's going to take a long time to cement their
place in the AFL landscape. Culturally western Sydney is a rapidly changing beast, and it's a massive challenge for
not just them, but footy in general and for that matter, all the other codes to react to this. And it's not just
Sydney, total attendance at home-and-away games over the whole comp has barely changed for the past 12 years.
The population of the country has gone up quite a bit in that time.
Footy traditionalists have this notion of what defines the successful club, but even that might be up for grabs in the
future. Collingwood only got 22,000 to a home game last weekend, I'm sure the club is not slitting their wrists just
yet, but instances like this suggest the rusted on component of supporters is not what it was. There are so many
other things competing for people's attention and money these days, that support for footy teams may be measured
in a different way to what we're used to in the future.

Yep it'll take time but I think they'll get a footprint in WS. Exactly so true about people's attention. AFL competes with not just other sport but entertainment, things like night clubs, movie theatres etc it's why academies are so important. It gives young kids a focus on our game n keeps them in it.

[Mark26]

Good reading from Roos in regards to Mitchell

Tom Mitchell Hawthorn Sydney AFL trades SuperCoach

A good article. Roos is a champion. I'd love to have him come back into the club in some capacity.