2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[waswan]

Interested to see the Jones deal, there us talk of 22 for Freos Langdon, surely similar deal

[liz]

Freo should hold onto Hill now, the saints got cocky. Screwed the deal.

I don't really know what either club is playing at. Freo seem resigned to trading Hill. They didn't come out and say he's a required player and we'll only trade him if we get massive overs. Initially they make it clear that they want pick 6. That doesn't seem unreasonable for a contracted player of Hill's ability in his prime. But then they want more? And not just a little more, but significantly more. Like St Kilda's first round pick next year too. That's greedy. (And in response to someone's response to me early today, I don't think "greedy" is ever a particularly good strategy, for practical and value based reasons).

But then the Saints go out of their way to completely piss the Dockers off. Seems as odd as the Dockers' highly ambitious demands. Will be interesting to see who blinks first? Is there another club lined up for Hill? I doubt it, given he made his choice of the Saints early in the process.

I also see Ryder is now hedging his bets, having nominated the Saints as a club of choice. So he maybe thinks the Saints have bitten off a bit more than they can chew. (Though why he'd then pick Carlton as his next club of choice I have no idea, given they also seem to have more irons in the fire than they have draft currency to manage.)

I hope the Swans have told Carlton (privately - I don't get why any clubs play out their trading in public) that if they do anything with pick 9, they won't be getting Papley. That's assuming they are even in-principle prepared to trade Papley at all. (I'm glad that the Swans are one club who don't do their trading in public. Even if that means a lack of news (or noise) makes we fans sweat a bit and speculate about unfavourable outcomes.)

[Markwebbos]

Allegedly the Saints gave Freo an ultimatum to take pick 6 and a 3rd rounder by a certain time today or they’d trade pick 6. Freo didn’t take the deal and are now potentially worse off. Swans should do the same with the Bombers.

[Ludwig]

That would be a pretty good result but I'd be shocked if we could pull it off!

Have your read the post correctly?
It's Jones, Papley and our pick 25 for 1 player who is a 90% chance to get to us for nothing next year, assuming he's not injured.

How is that a GOOD deal. Our whole management team should be sacked if we get shafted like that.

Buddy Franklin would have been worth no less than 3 top ten picks in 2013, but we go him for nothing. Richmond got Tom Lynch for nothing. That's why they're premiers and favourites to go again next year.

We are not in a position to give away anything. We need a list management team that's smart and tough. I think we have that, but reserve the right to reevaluate next week.

[707]

It makes sense (within their apparent strategy - which as I posted earlier I don't especially agree with) for them to have that in mind. If we speculate that Melbourne don't especially have their eye on Green, it still depends on how strong their preferences are amongst the next handful of players available. How likely is it that Adelaide or Sydney/Essendon will be eyeing their next favourite player? And what else do the Giants have to offer up?

Even if they fail to move further up, live trading does give the Giants an escape route. If they sit at pick 6 and someone bids on Green before that pick, live trading means they can then trade back down so that they don't use up the whole value of pick 6 on Green and thus lose some of the value of their discount. I imagine they will have a club lined up ready and waiting to do that if Green's name is called before pick 6 comes around.

Never thought about that, pre arranged trade down to the pick you need for the points plus an extra pick or combo of

[Thunder Shaker]

I agree with you BS, the deal implies that they don't want Green, or will pass on any bid before their pick 6. Having heard their recruiting manager on Road To The Draft (its an old podcast but I listened to it yesterday) say they didn't need Caldwell when they drafted him. That and seeing what's happening with Bonar, I can imagine they don't desperately need another inside mid and could have their eye on another player.

Either that or its a calculated risk based on the premise that:

GCS will take Rowell and Anderson
Melbourne won't take him as they are perceived to have a midfield full of one-paced inside midfielders and are looking for outside pace and class
Ditto Adelaide exactly the same issues.

Which leaves us next in line. They may be gambling we'll be forced to use pick 5 on Daniher, which is all the more reason why we should not offer it to Essendon and instead only give them the expected Papley pick 9 and a lower round sweetener. Although if we did give pick 5 to the Bombers there's a good chance they'd go for Green.

Pick 6 is worth 1751 points. GWS also have picks 40, 59, 60 and others. Here are the numbers for bids on Green:

I do not expect Gold Coast to make a bid on Green so I won't calculate that scenario. They will draft Rowell and Anderson - two mates - to help the club with player retention.

Pick 3: 2234 × 0.8 = 1787.2. Burns pick 6 and knocks pick 40 down a couple of places (36.2 point deficit).
Pick 4: 2034 × 0.8 = 1627.2?. Pick 6 becomes about pick 62.
Pick 5: 1878 × 0.8 = 1502.4?. Pick 6 becomes about pick 52.

So pick 6 is good enough on its own to match pick 4 or pick 5, and almost good enough to match pick 3.

[liz]

So pick 6 is good enough on its own to match pick 4 or pick 5, and almost good enough to match pick 3.

Trading up isn't about having a pick to match a bid on Green. It's about getting ahead of a bid on Green so that they get to draft another player first and then use assorted bit and pieces to match a bid on Green. They want two bites of the top 10 cherry.

[Mark26]

I've made the mistake on several occasions this week of tuning into trade radio. I went in search for news, but left in angry and dispirited. The "go home" factor is destroying the little pretence left of there being a national competition. The commentary is so Vic-centric and positions all non-Vic teams to get the job done; let the boys come home. The boys who signed up to be drafted in a national competition have had their adventure abroad, but it is a fait accompli that they return south of the border.

Heaven forbid, if a player of any ilk puts their hand up to leave, there is an inquisition. The integrity of players (like Fantasia and Daniher) and team management (like Harley) are suddenly under scrutiny. The fall back compensation is so disproportionate too. How in the world is a player who can't get on the park worth 2 first rounders? What did Scully go for again? What will Patton go for?

I actually like Freo's stance. They've said we want more. We need to be just as stubborn on this too. We can't just let stars walk out the door. That's who Papley is. Leading goal kicker. Leader of our club. Always showing the right intensity. If the compensation isn't right, can we send Jones to the draft? We need to bid on Green, but that means keeping pick 5 and not offering Essendon anything above a second rounder for Daniher. He's broken. We get him for nothing next year.

[Melbourne_Blood]

The saints have got way too much going on , they’re throwing 600k a year over 5 years at Dougal Howard( reportedly ) !!!. And of course the power want a first round pick for him . Saints hoping to give up a late second round for Jones. I would call their bluff on that. That’s a stinker for us .

Seriously though the saints need to narrow their focus a bit , or they may miss out on Hill And Jones . Who they have been keen on all year .


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[707]

I worry every trade we do will be against us, too much for Daniher, too little for Jones. Papley I'm putting in a different basket because he's contracted we don't trade him unless we get fair compensation and that's pick 9 alone or he stays.

We have to grow a pair or we'll become an easy raid for Victorian clubs, now is the time to make a stand.

[707]

Trading up isn't about having a pick to match a bid on Green. It's about getting ahead of a bid on Green so that they get to draft another player first and then use assorted bit and pieces to match a bid on Green. They want two bites of the top 10 cherry.

That's their greedy plan, get a top 5 player plus Green. For the first time ever GWS are struggling for points, they burnt a few points getting up to pick 6, it's why they need a third from Hawks for Patton and there will have to be another player or two traded out late to pay for Green if they use their first pick before him. Reckon they have their eye on Young or Ash as they are swimming in midfielders.

Another Vic club or two will benefit here :-(

[MattW]

Have your read the post correctly?
It's Jones, Papley and our pick 25 for 1 player who is a 90% chance to get to us for nothing next year, assuming he's not injured.

How is that a GOOD deal. Our whole management team should be sacked if we get shafted like that.

Buddy Franklin would have been worth no less than 3 top ten picks in 2013, but we go him for nothing. Richmond got Tom Lynch for nothing. That's why they're premiers and favourites to go again next year.

We are not in a position to give away anything. We need a list management team that's smart and tough. I think we have that, but reserve the right to reevaluate next week.

I'm not saying it's what I want to happen or what should happen, but an outcome which could happen and which would not be as bad as some floated deals.

Generally, I worry that:
- Essendon, pumped up by ex players and myopic Melbourne media, are only going to accept two first round picks or force Joe to play for them. I have no faith they'll try to do the best thing by him.
- We will ultimately facilitate the trade rather than strand Joe at Essendon.

That is, we will blink first. Very, very happy to be proven wrong on that.

[MattW]

Meanwhile, FWIW:

Telstra AFL Trade Radio on Twitter: "Barrett on Tom Papley: There's a belief that the conversations will today become more meaningful between the Swans and the Blues around Tom

#AFLTrade"

Telstra AFL Trade Radio on Twitter: "Barrett: I have a strong belief that if the Blues have pick 9 and want to get Tom Papley, then they just have to use it. Sometimes you just have to get deals done

#AFLTrade"

[707]

Dodo said they've had three discussions with Sydney over Daniher, he is not being traded, expects Daniher to be at Essendon in 2020 and to fall back in love with the place.

I like that, just leave it at that, get on with the other trades we need to get done. Happy to take 5 & 9 & 25 to the draft, stock up on 2020 picks. The way ahead would be much clearer if we listen to what Dodo is saying/telling us!

[Markwebbos]

Dodo said they've had three discussions with Sydney over Daniher, he is not being traded, expects Daniher to be at Essendon in 2020 and to fall back in love with the place.

I like that, just leave it at that, get on with the other trades we need to get done. Happy to take 5 & 9 & 25 to the draft, stock up on 2020 picks. The way ahead would be much clearer if we listen to what Dodo is saying/telling us!

We'll see. He's not exactly know for his honesty!