2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[barry]

Gee couldn’t be explained by COVID & the fact that members aren’t getting the same value for their hard earned $, or that they have lost work so can’t afford membership, so may elect not to renew for this year?

Scomo said that NSW is the best state for handling COVID, so clubs in NSW should be one of the least effected by COVID. Especially compared to Victoria.
The job loses have been far less, and lockdown is much shorter.

Please read what I said. Overall, membership is down 6%, and most clubs are in victoria where you never got to see a game at all.
21% is more than just covid. To be clear its its (21-6) = 15%.

You cant bury your head in the sand everytime there is bad news.

Interestingly, there was one other club with a 20% decrease and that was Essendon. You could understand that when you listen to Matthew Lloyd it sounds like the members are in revolt over the coach, joe daniher, fall down the ladder. Bit harsh if you ask me. The penalties from drugs scandal will take a decade to recover from.

[Ralph Dawg]

Big concerns about our membership drop off this year (21%) which can only be explained by the prospect of a long rebuild.
League average is -6% for covid, and fellow Sydney siders GWS down 2%.

The admin may not want a draft led rebuild.

Hey Barry, I agree that this is a concern and that a long rebuild may not be in the club's interests. We are in a non AFL state, with interest very much linked to our performance. Lions dropped off massively when they were cellar dwellers, going from the top ticket in town to equal with the Reds when they were crap. Only by an AFL intervention, bringing Noble and Fagan in with subsequent improvement in list is the interest building again. GC suns very similar, requiring league help with some green shoots both on and off the field only appearing now.

[barry]

Buddy's contract is forcing us down a road of draft picks though. We simply wont have the cash to attract free agents/trades unless we do a massive clean-out of anyone over 28 who likely wont be in our next flag.
So for next 2 years, go to draft heavily, then pick up trades/free-agents post-buddy. Trouble is, big free-agents like Joe Daniher dont come around too often and may not be there in 2022+

The good news is we are coming off a very high membership (60,000+), so we could actually take a 50% drop and still be ahead of other northern state clubs (Suns, Lions, GWS) which are all in the 25,000 to 30,000 range.

[Roadrunner]

Perhaps getting a quality ruckman should be our first priority - but there are few of those, so unless we could get big Maxy Gawn or someone of that calibre, would should target other positions over taking another average ruckman via trade.

Maybe we will look at using our first pick on a tall fwd/ruck and hope they can impact in a few years.

Agreed Jono-however there may be a gem somewhere, like Mummy, and this is the job of our recruiters and list managers. If they can’t identify or obtain from another club, then use the draft to select at least 2 potential ruckmen before turning their attention to midfielders- assuming we’ll get Campbell and Gulden of course!

[Markwebbos]

I think one ruck will get squeezed out of Richmond. They just signed up Noah Baltas 7 foot cousin, admittedly as a speculative option.

[Ludwig]

The admin may not want a draft led rebuild.

The draft led rebuild is already done. It's history now. It's like baking a cake. We just have to wait a while to see how it turns out.

The loss of Naismith has put some urgency on boosting our ruck stocks, but we don't have to do anything exceptional in most other areas. We should of course take advantage of a good recruiting opportunity, but it wouldn't make sense to go into a recruiting binge at the same time we are in a big player development stage.

We've only be out of the 8 for two years. Carlton have been in a 20 year rebuild. Essendon had one of the greatest sides in 2000, but how would you like to be an Essendon fan the past 20 years? And they still are a club in going nowhere.

[707]

From what I've seen on tv and clips and from what followers who have reported on them live, Campbell and Gulden seem to be almost certain best 22, that's two added at the draft.

It would appear that we may get a top five draftee as well as these two which is another plus.

Ludwig is correct, we've been stocking up for a few years, 2021, if it's not Covid affected is a year when we'll see who is stepping up to best 22.

[Ralph Dawg]

From what I've seen on tv and clips and from what followers who have reported on them live, Campbell and Gulden seem to be almost certain best 22, that's two added at the draft.

It would appear that we may get a top five draftee as well as these two which is another plus.

Ludwig is correct, we've been stocking up for a few years, 2021, if it's not Covid affected is a year when we'll see who is stepping up to best 22.

Just be careful placing too much faith in the video footage of these kids. I've watched most of our recent draftees play or viewed their highlights packages and they all look a cut above. But checking out a few, it's still not a given they are going to be solid players. Just to cite a few:
Stoddart: Excellent highlights package, possible delist.
Ling: Looked fast and silky, almost Burgoyne like. Tracking to be a lockdown defender at best, possible delist.
Stephens: kicking goals v Men in SANFL, OK at AFL level, steady but not spectacular progress (unlike Rowell, Anderson, Serong)
Gould: Shannon Hurn like in SANFL, unsighted for 2020

[Ludwig]

With Matt Kreuzer retiring I don't think there's much chance of De Koenig leaving Carlton. Richmond have signed a 213cm ruckman prospect. With the Covid rules violation, Coleman-Jones must be on the trading block. He might go cheaply and is good target for us. I would prefer Chol, but Coleman-Jones looks more gettable.

__________________________________________________ _______________

Just be careful placing too much faith in the video footage of these kids. I've watched most of our recent draftees play or viewed their highlights packages and they all look a cut above. But checking out a few, it's still not a given they are going to be solid players. Just to cite a few:
Stoddart: Excellent highlights package, possible delist.
Ling: Looked fast and silky, almost Burgoyne like. Tracking to be a lockdown defender at best, possible delist.
Stephens: kicking goals v Men in SANFL, OK at AFL level, steady but not spectacular progress (unlike Rowell, Anderson, Serong)
Gould: Shannon Hurn like in SANFL, unsighted for 2020

I find this to be such an unwarranted negative reading of these players. It's okay to say that we don't have enough information to make an informed assessment at this time. This would be fair enough, given how little AFL exposure they've had. But why put such a negative slant on it?

My assessment would be:

Stoddart: (6 games, 2 this year). Has the speed, skill and hardness we like in a player. Was a steal at pick 53, as he was tapped to go in the late 20s by most draft gurus. He was unfortunate to have a season ending back injury in his last and best game (16 possessions). Looking forward to him challenging for a spot in the senior side next year.

Ling: (3 games). Lost the better part of 2 years with injuries. Finally seems to be over the worst of it and ready to begin a promising career. He has similar attributes as Stoddart, including both being left footers. Expecting good things if he can stay off the injury list.

Stephens: (6 games). Another left footer with speed and skill. Showed good improvement over the stretch of his 6 games. Has a promising future.

Gould: I think we will see Gould in one of these final 2 games. Steve Johnson said he would get a go in an interview a few weeks back. Many had him as a top 10 pick in last year's draft, but seemed to drop when rumours got out that he had blown up to over 100 kgs. I'm hopeful that he can be a grade A player in due course.

[Mr Magoo]

Just be careful placing too much faith in the video footage of these kids. I've watched most of our recent draftees play or viewed their highlights packages and they all look a cut above. But checking out a few, it's still not a given they are going to be solid players. Just to cite a few:
Stoddart: Excellent highlights package, possible delist.
Ling: Looked fast and silky, almost Burgoyne like. Tracking to be a lockdown defender at best, possible delist.
Stephens: kicking goals v Men in SANFL, OK at AFL level, steady but not spectacular progress (unlike Rowell, Anderson, Serong)
Gould: Shannon Hurn like in SANFL, unsighted for 2020

Agree with this. Its called a highlights package for a reason - showing a couple of impressive passages of play isnt going to ensure success.

One thing thats often missed in these packages (and in recruiting to some extent at junior level) is the ability of a player to influence the result. This maybe a "moneyball" type indicator but a lot of these kids have some good skills or a cv of silky highlights but often have not shown the ability to actually influence / win a game for their team and perform when it matters. Have seen many that are impressive down hill skiers in the right team but that go missing under adversity or really cant change the course of a game . You need at least a couple like that in your team in my opinion and havent seen that from many of the newbies to date.

Time will tell in that regard I guess as they grow in the game , but its a quality thats hard to define if a couple of junior rep games is used as the benchmark for deciding a players draftability.

[Thunder Shaker]

No way would i even consider trading Papley who has 3 years remaining on his contract. Too much bearing on his last 4 weeks (where he's had alot of almost moments) than a long term view, where I think his best is yet to come.

I would like to hold on to Papley if at all possible, or make an opposition club pay a hefty price.

Papley's struggling a bit because he's been on the receiving end of relatively few quality possessions, and that comes back to the lack of midfield and ruck dominance. He would be very dangerous as the second possession after a rack tap and centre clearance. In that scenario, either there's no third possession (he's going for a goal) or he's offloading it to someone 30 metres out.

So to get the most put of Papley, we will need a ruckman who can stay on the park. Naismith has played 30 games and he's 28. He's lost the equivalent of five or six full seasons due to injury. One more long-term injury and he's probably going to retire.

We can forget about De Koenig at Carlton because Kreuzer has announced his retirement. Carlton will also be on the hunt for a ruckman because they have just two rucks.

[Ludwig]

If there's any faith to be placed, it's in our list management team, not any highlights package. Both KB and Longmire put 'competitiveness' at the top of the list of qualities they look for in a player. With the exception of ET, our draftees usually have a competitive spirit.

Talent is important, but a club with a strong culture and good development can turn an ordinary player into a star. That's why we have so many rookie listed players who are more than just making up the numbers. Lloyd, Fox, COR, Papley, Rampe, Cunningham. It wasn't a good highlight reel that made them AFL players.

We have a great record in developing players. Our recent drafts have brought in more raw talent than in the past and I expect that in time they will be moulded into a strong competitive team. It's more about the system and weight of numbers than any particular player.

[111431]

If there's any faith to be placed, it's in our list management team, not any highlights package. Both KB and Longmire put 'competitiveness' at the top of the list of qualities they look for in a player. With the exception of ET, our draftees usually have a competitive spirit.

Talent is important, but a club with a strong culture and good development can turn an ordinary player into a star. That's why we have so many rookie listed players who are more than just making up the numbers. Lloyd, Fox, COR, Papley, Rampe, Cunningham. It wasn't a good highlight reel that made them AFL players.

We have a great record in developing players. Our recent drafts have brought in more raw talent than in the past and I expect that in time they will be moulded into a strong competitive team. It's more about the system and weight of numbers than any particular player.

excellent observation Ludwig

[Ludwig]

Naismith has played 30 games and he's 28. He's lost the equivalent of five or six full seasons due to injury. One more long-term injury and he's probably going to retire.

We can forget about De Koenig at Carlton because Kreuzer has announced his retirement. Carlton will also be on the hunt for a ruckman because they have just two rucks.

Well, Carlton have 2 more rucks than we do.

I've previously posted that I think Naismith should retire now and not take up a spot on our list. I'm sure the rehab and money issues can be worked out. And if he does recover well and wants to play again, we can always draft him next year. Personally, I think it's too late for Sam. Especially with list sizes likely to be reduced, there's not going to be room for high injury risk players.

List size reductions will make the tall utility who can ruck a more valuable player in the future. I think 2 good ruckmen will be the most teams will be able to carry.

[mcs]

If there's any faith to be placed, it's in our list management team, not any highlights package. Both KB and Longmire put 'competitiveness' at the top of the list of qualities they look for in a player. With the exception of ET, our draftees usually have a competitive spirit.

Talent is important, but a club with a strong culture and good development can turn an ordinary player into a star. That's why we have so many rookie listed players who are more than just making up the numbers. Lloyd, Fox, COR, Papley, Rampe, Cunningham. It wasn't a good highlight reel that made them AFL players.

We have a great record in developing players. Our recent drafts have brought in more raw talent than in the past and I expect that in time they will be moulded into a strong competitive team. It's more about the system and weight of numbers than any particular player.

As you often do Ludwig, you bring it back to some very well made points in a succint manner.

Your point about weight of numbers is important to - and part of why I think we might go well use a high pick to get another midfielder in the draft this year beyond the two we already will get. We may well end up with too many midfielders, but on the basis some will click and we will be able to salvage some value through trades over time for those that are superfluous, and that from the group a good midfield group will rise.

I think your a bit harsh on ET however. The kid is very, very raw and I think was always seen as a long term project - I dont see it as a lack of competitive spirit, but (ignoring off field issue) learnt in his couple of games just what is needed at AFL level.