2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[stevoswan]

He was on the gym by himself doing the extras to succeed. He knew the adminstrative area would be open on game day and took the opportunity to do the work. He was injured at the time so was clearly doing rehab. The fact that he was there by himself says more about other members of the Swans list not taking their careers seriously.

This last bit is hilarious....speculatively bagging other Swans to make a point about Dawson. Shoddy.....

Did you ever think he might have been told by Swans staff to put in more work or.....you're 'outta here'? The over reach here is galling and frankly, disloyal.

[gloveski]

Speaking of Ladhams, I was talking to my close friend about the two preliminary finals on the weekend and the losing teams. When we discussed who might be in trouble from those losing teams, he singled out Rohan for Geelong and Ladhams for Port who he felt was not up to it. In his words, he is big and strong but just runs around doing very little.

I said to him in response that this is an interesting observation for Swans' supporters as Ladhams might be a player that the Swans would look at as part of a potential swap involving Dawson. He remarked that he would not do it if he was the Swans. So Ladhams may be of questionable value? Obviously, my friend is not the Oracle but he is a pretty astute football judge. What do others think about Ladhams? He has looked ok to me when I have watched Port. He has the potential to develop and he has received more senior games this season.

Agree ladhams is abit underwhelming from the games I’ve watched . Prefer to Punt on Hayes


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[i'm-uninformed2]

So, two things:

- If young Dylan Stephens was tempted to leave because of limited opportunities to date (leaving aside, his own down year led to omissions - and I say that as a fan), what the chance he sees Dawson's departure as opening up a wing slot he could seize? I'd love to keep him, as reckon his upside is significant.

- A lot of the media speculation suggests Port is ahead of Adelaide in the race for Dawson, because they're in a window. I get Adelaide itself is a way off finals, let alone a flag . . . but are we so sure Port are in a window?? I get they have some good young players like Georgiades, Bergman and the three 2018 draft picks. But, I'm not sure they're not like Geelong, with a tranche of older players (Gray, Boak, Dixon, Jonas, Motlop, Lycett) who could easily drop off the cliff the next couple of years. Sure, Dawson replaces some of that. Port also had an average record against the elite sides this year. Don't get me wrong, they've got enough quality to make the eight in the next few years, but a real flag level list . . . I'm unconvinced. And our job from here as a club is to get the two Adelaide teams into Jordan's head as options, start the bidding war and extract a maximum dividend.

[chalbilto]

So, two things:

- If young Dylan Stephens was tempted to leave because of limited opportunities to date (leaving aside, his own down year led to omissions - and I say that as a fan), what the chance he sees Dawson's departure as opening up a wing slot he could seize? I'd love to keep him, as reckon his upside is significant.

- A lot of the media speculation suggests Port is ahead of Adelaide in the race for Dawson, because they're in a window. I get Adelaide itself is a way off finals, let alone a flag . . . but are we so sure Port are in a window?? I get they have some good young players like Georgiades, Bergman and the three 2018 draft picks. But, I'm not sure they're not like Geelong, with a tranche of older players (Gray, Boak, Dixon, Jonas, Motlop, Lycett) who could easily drop off the cliff the next couple of years. Sure, Dawson replaces some of that. Port also had an average record against the elite sides this year. Don't get me wrong, they've got enough quality to make the eight in the next few years, but a real flag level list . . . I'm unconvinced. And our job from here as a club is to get the two Adelaide teams into Jordan's head as options, start the bidding war and extract a maximum dividend.

Like you I also hope that he stays and cements his spot in the team. From what I saw from him this season he was very tentative and afraid to make an error, whereas he shuod have been bolder and played with flair and if he made a mistake he should have "gritted his teeth" and gone in harder. I felt that he just needed confidence and belief in himself for he has heaps of ability.

[Aprilbr]

This is my best guess of how things might proceed. Dawson's Manager will publicly nominate which team that he wants to go to in the coming days. Its probably going to be Port given they're in the window. We will then commence negotiations with them.

They will offer their second round pick to us which is way unders. We will ask for a top 10 pick or alternatively their first pick (16) plus one of those two big guys mentioned in previous posts. Where they go with that will be interesting to watch. If we feel we are getting nowhere with them (highly possible) then we should approach Adelaide to see what their best offer might be. If that looks acceptable then we go to his Manager and say that we don't think we can get a deal done with Port as they are undervaluing Dawson. However, we can execute a deal quickly with Adelaide which will achieve his aim of being located there. At that point, I predict Port will suddenly agree to give up their first pick and maybe a little more. Its going to be interesting and will be a real game of bluff to the wire in the best tradition of trade shenanigans.

[Nico]

What about a first round pick next year.

[Aprilbr]

Yes that's another potential reasonable offer, Nico.

[stevoswan]

Chris Langford did that in his final Hawks years. Worked a day job out of Sydney and traveled to Melbourne to play for the Hawks on the weekends. My understanding was that he used to train at the North Shore club to maintain fitness during the week.

You may think my suggestion in bizarre, but remote work is happening in all industries around the world.

It hasn’t been tried since Langford but it hardly means it’s bizarre. I thought this forum was a medium to propose some left field ideas.

Correct.....and it's also a medium to reply to said left field ideas. That's all people are doing. If you want agreement and back pats, you'll maybe have to come up with more 'workable' ideas.

[Thunder Shaker]

I've been computing the draft permutations (using a Java application I wrote for that purpose) to see how many ways it is possible to trade picks that value Dawson between pick 4 and 16 inclusive. With the assumptions I made, there were a total of 16,521 pick swap permutations for the two clubs.

Assumptions made: No other players. No other clubs involved, including the other Adelaide club. 2022 picks valued as if Adelaide finished 12th, Sydney finished 5th, Port Adelaide 2nd.

To give an idea of just how many ways there are, here are the results for 2033 and 2034 (pick 4 is worth 2034).

Adelaide
2034: Adelaide 4. Sydney Dawson
2034: Adelaide future(1) future(2) future(3) future(4). Sydney 31 future(3) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 4 37 63 future(1) future(3) future(4). Sydney 31 67 future(1) future(2) future(3) future(4) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 37 future(1) future(3) future(4). Sydney 31 Dawson
2034: Adelaide 23 future(1) future(3) future(4). Sydney 31 future(3) future(4) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 23 37 63 future(1) future(2) future(4). Sydney 12 future(2) future(4) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 4 59 future(1) future(2) future(4). Sydney 31 67 future(1) future(2) future(3) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 23 59 future(1) future(2) future(3) future(4). Sydney 12 future(2) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 4 59 63 future(2) future(4). Sydney future(1) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 4 37 59 future(2) future(4). Sydney 31 67 future(2) future(3) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 37 59 future(1) future(2). Sydney 31 67 future(3) future(4) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 4 37 59 future(1) future(4). Sydney 31 67 future(1) future(2) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 4 23 59 future(1) future(4). Sydney 31 67 future(1) future(2) future(3) future(4) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 4 23 59 63 future(4). Sydney future(1) future(4) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 4 23 37 59 future(4). Sydney 31 67 future(2) future(3) future(4) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 4 23 37 59 63 future(2) future(3). Sydney 12 future(1) future(3) Dawson
2034: Adelaide 4 23 59 63 future(3). Sydney 31 future(2) future(3) Dawson

2033: Adelaide 23 63 future(1) future(3). Sydney future(2) future(3) future(4) Dawson
2033: Adelaide 37 63 future(1) future(3). Sydney future(2) Dawson
2033: Adelaide 4 59 future(1) future(2) future(3) future(4). Sydney 12 future(1) future(2) future(4) Dawson
2033: Adelaide 37 future(1) future(2) future(4). Sydney 67 future(2) future(3) future(4) Dawson
2033: Adelaide 63 future(1) future(2) future(3). Sydney future(2) future(3) Dawson
2033: Adelaide 4 37 59 future(2) future(3) future(4). Sydney 12 future(2) future(4) Dawson
2033: Adelaide 23 59 future(1). Sydney future(2) Dawson
2033: Adelaide 4 23 37 future(4). Sydney future(1) future(3) Dawson

Port Adelaide
2033: Port Adelaide 16 future(1). Sydney future(4) Dawson
2033: Port Adelaide 16 60 70 71 future(1). Sydney future(3) Dawson
2033: Port Adelaide 16 60 70 future(1) future(4). Sydney future(3) Dawson

[Kafka's Ghost]

Mark McGowan doesn't necessarily see it that way.

Neither do Gutwein and Marshall. The Bulldogs’ players weren’t even allowed a training run on the Adelaide Oval!

[mcs]

What about a first round pick next year.

I think this is a more likely outcome than receiving a first round pick this year. Adelaide won't want to give up pick 4, and as I think Port will be reluctant to give up this years 1st rounder either, given they then would have nothing until the 60s in what has been said is a very shallow draft. Depends if they get currency from other potential trades.

Would not necessarily be a bad outcome for us - we could seek to on-trade it if we wanted to look to move up this year, or keep it knowing it would leave us with a good starting hand for next year's draft, knowing we do have some potential academy and F/S prospects to come over the next couple of years.

[giant]

Analysts on First Crack on Fox Footy tonight arguing that Dawson is worth less than Adelaide's first pick no. 4 but more than Port's first pick of 16. Seems about where we should be heading with this. Ideally a top 10 pick, if not then just a few picks above it.

This seems a reasonable piece of analysis - but sadly doesn't mean we'll end up with anything like that. When was the last time we did a trade when it didn't feel like we'd been stitched up? Possibly Hanners but only cos they took the salary pain away.

[Molly dooker]

Sorry if this is a stupid question.

If we're doing investigations into a trade for Dawson, (sadly) and come up with something agreeable, do we have to wait for Trade Period (TP) or can the deal be done before?

When is TP starting this year? I just hope it all is revealed really soon, even delisting news.

I loved watching him play and wish him all the best, as most do, with his life, love and footy. I will miss him and his beautiful left boot and strong mark.

FWIW, I trust the club to ring out as much as possible for him.

[Aprilbr]

Sorry if this is a stupid question.

If we're doing investigations into a trade for Dawson, (sadly) and come up with something agreeable, do we have to wait for Trade Period (TP) or can the deal be done before?

When is TP starting this year? I just hope it all is revealed really soon, even delisting news.

I loved watching him play and wish him all the best, as most do, with his life, love and footy. I will miss him and his beautiful left boot and strong mark.

FWIW, I trust the club to ring out as much as possible for him.

Not a stupid question at all. My understanding is that the two Clubs can informally agree to the trade deal beforehand but all of the paperwork can only be lodged once the trade period officially begins. I would be surprised if the Dawson deal is resolved quickly.

[Aprilbr]

This seems a reasonable piece of analysis - but sadly doesn't mean we'll end up with anything like that. When was the last time we did a trade when it didn't feel like we'd been stitched up? Possibly Hanners but only cos they took the salary pain away.

Yes agreed, Giant. Trade negotiations are like a blood sport so the outcomes are not always fair and win-win for both parties. It all comes down to relative bargaining positions, creativity and skills in negotiations.