2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[waswan]

Due to Covid reductions, the average salary for a primary listed player was $259651 over the passed two seasons. Based on this 450k is not a bargain. 450k would have to be ranked about 10th highest paid player. I like George but this is not value.

What is the alternative ?
Fringe players will be coming for 2yrs minimum on above average money.

Its not worth it to relocate to Sydney on anything less.

[Steve]

I've run through some of the numbers …

As a result,

• The Swans lose Dawson and Hewett and pick 67 and get picks 17 and 23, which will blow out to at least 19 and 25. This would net out to around a pick 7 for both Dawson and Hewett, but 19 and 25 are better for us than a pick 7 in this draft.

… So we would go into the draft with adjusted picks 14, 19, 25 and 33. I'm sure we could trade one of the picks for a 2022 pick if we want to.

I think trading for as many or better 2022 picks is a way better option for us.

We’re not lacking good young players to come into the side (Blakey, Warner, Campbell, Stephens, McDonald, Gould, Sheather, Armartey etc).

Based on history I can’t get excited about picks in that 15-20 range - in the past 20 years most have been busts (Jones and Jetta the only exceptions), we’ve had a lot more success with picks 25+.

I’m not sold on takings talls at that point either - when you look at our young tall forwards, we have good coverage with McDonald, McLean and Armartey, and I think Heeney will spend most of the rest of his career deep forward as he keeps getting injured when we try and put him in the thick of it. P.McCartin is another option and we will need to trade for another ruck in the next year or two who would hopefully be on the younger side and be able to push forward at times.

The Bulldogs and Collingwood will have a lot of suitors wanting to do picks swaps and it will be an auction for whoever can offer the most points.

[Ludwig]

I wonder if George is still a consideration.

Money cant be an issue and unless we are into All Aus calibre or a tall surely keeping George is a no brainer. Same recruitment team that gave Taylor 3 yrs.

Id be p8ssed to get rid of George for a fringe player like Constable etc.

450k for 20+ possessions is a bargain

The timing for George and the Swans is not right. This is Hewett's FA year and time for him to cash in, but we simply don't have a spot for him in the engine room. We can't give him a 4 year contract to play as an inside mid, which is just about the only position he's suited for on the Swans, when we have Parker, Mills, RB and Chad, plus JPK to fill in when needed next year. Plus we have others who could play inside mid if needed. But those 4 have to play, and that doesn't leave a spot for George. Carlton really need an inside mid like George, so it's a good match. I really like George and I'm happy that he's been able to lock in $1.8 million for his young family. I truly wish him the best.
Don't worry; I doubt that we will be seeing Charlie Constable in Sydney next year.

I think trading for as many or better 2022 picks is a way better option for us.

We’re not lacking good young players to come into the side (Blakey, Warner, Campbell, Stephens, McDonald, Gould, Sheather, Armartey etc).

Based on history I can’t get excited about picks in that 15-20 range - in the past 20 years most have been busts (Jones and Jetta the only exceptions), we’ve had a lot more success with picks 25+.

I’m not sold on takings talls at that point either - when you look at our young tall forwards, we have good coverage with McDonald, McLean and Armartey, and I think Heeney will spend most of the rest of his career deep forward as he keeps getting injured when we try and put him in the thick of it. P.McCartin is another option and we will need to trade for another ruck in the next year or two who would hopefully be on the younger side and be able to push forward at times.

The Bulldogs and Collingwood will have a lot of suitors wanting to do picks swaps and it will be an auction for whoever can offer the most points.

We have a pretty strong non-KPP list, a lot of kids, but the quality is high. I can't see many dropping away. Our KPPs are promising, but thin, and unproven, and we can't be sure about the development trajectory for many of them. I would be looking to add 3 KPPs this year: Paddy as a DFA, and perhaps Van Rooyen with our 1st pick and Bazzo or Leek Aliir with one of the next picks. That would give us a good depth of players, albeit a fair number of kids who will take time. If it doesn't work out, we might have to go to the trade market next year, but if it does, we could be sitting pretty for some time to come.

Even if we signed Paddy and took 4 picks this year, we could still go into next season with a list size of around 42, which would be a 2 player reduction. It depends on how many more will be cut from our list and if there's a player out there we would be happy to sign up. Maybe Peter Ladhams, for the right price, or Collingwood's Max Lynch. But if we sign Sinclair first, I can't see any of those deals happening. We just wait another year.

[Captain]

I absolutely cannot believe that anyone here thinks that Dawson is not worth pick 4. Seriously I would be asking for this year AND next year. He is an incredible player…2 first round picks for Shiel and Kelly plus many others I’m sure. Dawson is a better prospect than those guys. Also surely Carlton need salary cap relief. We’ll take Charlie Curnow for Georgie

Agreed. Is definitely worth pick 4.

Even if we get pick 4, the reality would be that we still LOSE on the deal.

Dawson is a star and will be a future multi All Australian.

[WomblingFree]

I like the idea of trying to trade our for a second first rounder next year for a number of reasons:

* it buys some time re our cap space
* we can afford it talent wise right now, and
* I suspect we’ll be very active next year and may look at bringing in a Big Dog to replace Buddy

There’ll be limited interest in trading 12 for a future first rounder and I really see two clubs who have a present need to inject youth - West Coast and Geelong. Hawks would be very reluctant to trade theirs just in case they really bottom out

[WomblingFree]

Agreed. Is definitely worth pick 4.

Even if we get pick 4, the reality would be that we still LOSE on the deal.

Dawson is a star and will be a future multi All Australian.

No club in the land would give pick 4. Drafting 101 says those picks go for KPFs or elite midfielders. Jordan is a very good player but mid teens is about on the money.

The only times clubs seem to extract full value form a trade are when a player is still under contract and where the suitor has tapped up the player to request a trade (think weller to the Suns or Neale to Lions)

[TheBloods]

We all love Chad, so how good he's going to become is a nice problem to have.

The player right now that is the clubhouse leader of our young guys is JMac. Ever since he came back into the side in the middle of last year he's been stellar. Watching last night's game, he has equal the run of Langdon, equal the foot skills of Hunter and equal the hardness of Brayshaw. And I reckon a versatility to beat them all because as we saw in one game, he can go into the centre square.

For mine, he's the one that could easily be anything. I get he had to play down back for the end of the season for various reasons and he can do it on his ear, but I'd love to see him back on a wing at the start of next year. We have something special on our hands.

Agree Jmac shown the most , has a season on Chad though . Dont forget about Mills too , not flashy but hard and skilful , great leader and consistent . When those 3 are our midfield he will be seen as the ugly duckling , commentators wont give an F about him as he doesnt have the dynamic talent of the other 2 but he 'll be every bit as important . Gulden Campbell too its some unbelievable talent in the mids . Shame Florent has been a tease so far , would like to include him but he doesnt show his best enough . Who knows with Stephens

[Auntie.Gerald]

My observation is that I have seen enough in 2021 to feel confident we are a top6 team in 2022 but I feel we are not a top4 yet.

My gut feeling is that our recruitment team believes we have a squad that can get us to the finals even if we miss out on Dawso and or Hewett. Just because they are leaving doesn't mean we do not have the money either. They want to go it appears.

I suspect the bigger question is what type of players do we need to recruit be more than competitve come a finals series? What type of players will ensure that we are a major threat in 2022 while we have Bud and Kennedy in our squad still?

We had 3 players missing against a fairly crappy GWS team in the prelim and we could NOT win.

Blakey, Mills and Kennedy missing and this exposed our ability to win when it counted most or a finals series.

If those 3 players are back in and Dawso and Hewett are out in 2022 and we don't have an easy draw...... will be able to beat Melbourne or the Bulldogs etc in a final series?

I think we are not short of mids or wingers but I do think our backline needs another strong KPP to ensure we can negate like the Deemons did for long periods of the game.

Melbourne's defence I felt starved the doggies for long enough......frustrated the doggies for long enough so that the attack of Melbourne could adjust and start to fly again.

I don't think our backline is at the same level of Melbourne and we will need it to be if we want to take on our 2022 window while we still have Kennedy and Bud.

Maybe the money saved from Hewett and Dawson could add the cash and draft points required to find that key defender required for finals 2022?

[waswan]

Maybe the money saved from Hewett and Dawson could add the cash and draft points required to find that key defender required for finals 2022?

Part of me thinks we have somone in mind another part thinks its going to get harder and harder to land a big fish in expensive Sydney.

We cant be cash strapped.
Gawn 1Mil
Petracca 1 Mil
Brayshaw 6 yrs deal
Harmes 6 years
May and Lever 750k plus
Oliver to sign

[gloveski]

Part of me thinks we have somone in mind another part thinks its going to get harder and harder to land a big fish in expensive Sydney.

We cant be cash strapped.
Gawn 1Mil
Petracca 1 Mil
Brayshaw 6 yrs deal
Harmes 6 years
May and Lever 750k plus
Oliver to sign

Ben Brown would also be on decent coin


It’s the money these guys are making outside the cap that is the real problem . More opportunities in Melbourne . Some of these guys would be signed on for less than the media think . Until the money made outside the cap is policed properly it will never be a level playing field for all clubs. Geelong and the land grab , Carlton and Visy . Here stories of Reno’s for free partners with well payed jobs . All clubs do it I’ve got no doubt


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[Roadrunner]

My observation is that I have seen enough in 2021 to feel confident we are a top6 team in 2022 but I feel we are not a top4 yet.

My gut feeling is that our recruitment team believes we have a squad that can get us to the finals even if we miss out on Dawso and or Hewett. Just because they are leaving doesn't mean we do not have the money either. They want to go it appears.

I suspect the bigger question is what type of players do we need to recruit be more than competitve come a finals series? What type of players will ensure that we are a major threat in 2022 while we have Bud and Kennedy in our squad still?

We had 3 players missing against a fairly crappy GWS team in the prelim and we could NOT win.

Blakey, Mills and Kennedy missing and this exposed our ability to win when it counted most or a finals series.

If those 3 players are back in and Dawso and Hewett are out in 2022 and we don't have an easy draw...... will be able to beat Melbourne or the Bulldogs etc in a final series?

I think we are not short of mids or wingers but I do think our backline needs another strong KPP to ensure we can negate like the Deemons did for long periods of the game.

Melbourne's defence I felt starved the doggies for long enough......frustrated the doggies for long enough so that the attack of Melbourne could adjust and start to fly again.

I don't think our backline is at the same level of Melbourne and we will need it to be if we want to take on our 2022 window while we still have Kennedy and Bud.

Maybe the money saved from Hewett and Dawson could add the cash and draft points required to find that key defender required for finals 2022?

Completely agree Auntie. Melbourne have May and Lever who are both excellent and their other defenders can apply the pressure too when needed. They didn’t preform in the 2 nd quarter of the GF, but were well on top the rest of the game as shown by the doggies goals: only 1 from Naughton, the rest from Bont and Treloar.

The no brainer for us is drafting Paddy- can’t see what we have to lose and everything to gain. I would still retain Sammy, even if he plays only half a season as he can also play down back as needed.

The other area we need to improve to be top 4 is centre clearances. Our defence was under enormous pressure at times due to the opposition getting their hands on the ball first, time and time again. The coaches need to resolve this weakness. The GF turned in the 3rd quarter when the Dees got on top against an elite midfield- amazing how the tide turned in about 8 minutes! It was great to watch! I almost felt sorry for the Fairypups…… well not really!

[707]

Never ever feel the slightest bit sorry for the Fairypups

Trade period starts next Monday

[Markwebbos]

Completely agree Auntie. Melbourne have May and Lever who are both excellent and their other defenders can apply the pressure too when needed. They didn’t preform in the 2 nd quarter of the GF, but were well on top the rest of the game as shown by the doggies goals: only 1 from Naughton, the rest from Bont and Treloar.

The no brainer for us is drafting Paddy- can’t see what we have to lose and everything to gain. I would still retain Sammy, even if he plays only half a season as he can also play down back as needed.

The other area we need to improve to be top 4 is centre clearances. Our defence was under enormous pressure at times due to the opposition getting their hands on the ball first, time and time again. The coaches need to resolve this weakness. The GF turned in the 3rd quarter when the Dees got on top against an elite midfield- amazing how the tide turned in about 8 minutes! It was great to watch! I almost felt sorry for the Fairypups…… well not really!

Largely agree with both of you AG and RR about how we compare to Melbourne. May has Naughton's measure, even playing on one leg. It is worth remembering that he's only 21.

We are one KPD short. I don't understand if Paddy is in serious consideration or not. I guess we'll know soon enough. If we draft someone, its unlikely they'll be ready to play for a while. Talia is out there too as a stopgap.

There is a lot of understandable sadness about the impending loss of George, but I think losing him (and the impending retirement of JPK) will help address our lack of speed at centre bounces. I'm still not convinced we have the right mix yet, but that missing ingredient could be the Chad, or Heeney, or JMac, or even someone like Campbell. And if we end up with a top ten draft pick, we may consider drafting another elite junior mid too.

6-6-6 makes it very hard to defend goals straight from the middle as the Dogs found out at the end of the 3rd quarter.

We also, obviously have to plan for the end of Buddy. It's too early to tell is young McDonald is the answer.

[Nico]

What got me about the Bulldogs in that 3rd quarter is that it seemed the Builldogs coaches didn't change their mix at centre bounces and that the competitive edge dropped of with their mids. I don't think that would have happened with us.

[Faunac8]

What got me about the Bulldogs in that 3rd quarter is that it seemed the Builldogs coaches didn't change their mix at centre bounces and that the competitive edge dropped of with their mids. I don't think that would have happened with us.

Not that all ex footballers automatically become expert pundits but Nathan Brown highlighted how the Flogs had failed to put a sweeper style mid in at the centre bounces to nullify the excellent tap work that the Demons were producing and as a result they were simply waltzing straight through the centre almost untouched. It was pretty obvious upon review but the fact that the 2016 flag thieves coaching panel didn’t address it was bizarre and was probably the turning point of the game.
3 goals in under a minute is something that until before Saturday if you were told was going to happen you would laugh and dismiss as a desperate pipe dream.