2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[gloveski]

A lot of hand wringing going on, lets wait and see who out of Crows and Port Dawson nominates, then work out what might be a satisfactory deal. Both clubs have awkward 2021 trade hands for us, expect there'll be some 2022 pick involved somewhere.

Todd Marshall does not fit a need for us nor is he more than fringe for Port anbd would be for us. I repeat, Port's fringe players will not win us a flag.

I wouldn’t call someone who played 20 games for a top 4 side fringe . He’s a slow burn like a lot of talls are . We could do a lot worse . Port play a bomb it forward style that doesn’t suit his game style , he’s a lead up forward


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[Bangalore Swans]

Fiction

I’m with my mate drinking Catalina Cocktails in Lyne Park and he confirms my Dawson story 100%. He was there with me as we observed Dawson taking his career seriously and doing the extras when nobody else was.

[0918330512]

I’m with my mate drinking Catalina Cocktails in Lyne Park and he confirms my Dawson story 100%. He was there with me as we observed Dawson taking his career seriously and doing the extras when nobody else was.

BS, I’m sorry, but statements like that are simply absolutely worthless. Anyone can claim they’re with such and such and they will corroborate their claim.

[Maltopia]

There has been sufficient blowback for those wanting to revisit the past as part of analyzing the current situation. But I feel it is relevant and goes a long way to explaining the fallout from earlier decisions. I don’t intend to blame anyone, at least not just yet. I just want to express my take on what has transpired in relation to our current list management problems.

It started way back in 2012 when after winning the premiership we got Kurt Tippett in a draft steal but at the cost of a lucrative long-term contract loaded with triggers. bonuses and contract extensions that lasted beyond his playing days.

This was followed up in 2013 by an even bigger 10-million-dollar contract for Lance Franklin, which was locked in for the duration of its 9 years. Now we had 2 players who were sucking up close to 20% of our salary cap, and coincided with a group of talented young players coming trough who deserved to be paid handsomely as well.

Two young midfielders, Jones and Hewett were drafted in the same year, as were Aliir and Nankervis. Is the fate of these four players mere coincidence or rather connected to the 2 major signings during the same period? It’s worth a deep reflection.

What followed was the predicted punishment from the AFL and the loss of COLA and a deep cut into our fragile salary cap that we’ve never recovered from.

Contracts would have to be back ended, but not into a void, but rather the fat end of the Tippett and Franklin contracts.

By 2016 we find ourselves with the best midfield in the league and a team that deserved to win the premiership. We also recruited 2 talented academy midfielders in Heeney and Mills, who had to play in positions outside the midfield. With a very talented Tom Mitchell in the side, we had ball winners galore, but they lacked outside run. There was also the specter of too many players deserving of big contracts, but the coffers were near empty. All of these players were young and talented with plenty of lucrative contracts on the horizon to make for salary cap pressure well into the future. Someone had to go, and it had to be a player that would be on a big contract, and come from our inside mids, where we had plenty of talent to fill his absence. We didn’t want to lose Mitchell, but he was the only realistic option that would open some space in the midfield, especially for Hewett, and get us a 1^st round pick, which we used on Florent.

We must have committed to a lot of back ended contracts to get past the 2020 Franklin salary hump, and it probably cost more in total salary to do so. Now those bigger contracts for players like Heeney, Florent and Hayward will continue to haunt us for several years to come.

And just like the COLA cut hit just at a critical time, the Covid TPP reduction could not have happened at a worse time. Despite shedding players like Hanners and Jones, we couldn’t afford to hold onto Aliir last year, presaging what was to come this year.

Just like in a game of footy, pressure can make the best of players unravel and make dreadful mistakes. Our club is cracking under an unrelenting salary cap squeeze. The obvious question is how do we get ourselves out of the mire and emerge with a team that can challenge for premierships once again.

Great post Ludwig.

What is missing in your analysis, is some of the adjustments that we made, or were forced to make due to Tippet and Franklin joining us on those contracts.

- Malceski left us on a huge contract, which would have freed up some coin to offset what we were paying Tippett and Franklin
- Mumford left at the end of 2013
- Membrey got delisted at the end of 2014 to be signed as a free agent by the Saints as he was stuck behind Franklin, Tippet and Goodes

As you mentioned, we have shed Hanner's contract as well as Rohan's. Also we should have freed up some coin with the retirements of McVeigh, Goodes, Jack, Shaw and others - remember tree years ago, we had something like 10 list changes,

I don't think we can simply blame the recruitment of Bud and Tippett, as TPP has grown since those signings, and we have had plenty of players retire or move on (such as Hanners, Mitchell, Malceski, Aliir and Rohan) to free up coin.

Yes we signed Naismith for three years, but we don't know for how much. We didn't have much option really as we were down in ruck depth at the time and unable to secure players we were seeking (I remember us chasing a free agent ruck a few years ago who ended up with the Suns?).

Also, some posters hammer our team for how good Nankervis and Aliir have become since being traded away for very little. But the reality is they were not doing that well for a few years (Nankers was behind Tippet, Sinclair who was decent then and Naismith), and we also have plenty of situations where the reverse is true. Ted Richards and Kennedy for example. Also some fantstic rookie and lower draft picks that have way outperformed their draft position - Luke Parker at pick 40, Rampe and Papley who were rookies (and have been All Australian squad).

Yes Dawson leaving is bad news for us, but overall, our team has done a lot more right than it has done wrong, as we have been in finals every year until recently, making the 2014 (where the Hawks mugged Franklin without penalty) and 2016 grand finals (farcial umpiring).

[Steve]

With Dawson, I think it’s pretty clear that he was happy to stay but our offer was less than he wanted. All we can hope/expect from the club was that we put forward our best offer and weren’t holding anything back which ultimately blew up in our face.

I just hope we weren’t holding out because we weren’t prepared to make the hard decisions on guys like Reid, Sinclair et al (who we deemed not good enough to be in our best 22 late this year).

If he’d stayed on big money for a couple more years (to get to FA) our initial feelings would have been relief, but realistically he’d probably have left after that and we’d potentially lose another quality young player.

Personally I’d like to see us play hardball in a trade - a pick in the 20’s is fairly useless to us if that’s all we get offered. I’d be more than happy to risk lose him for nothing on asking for a significant return.

If it’s Port, their first pick + Ladhams.

If Adelaide, pick 4 in return for Dawson and our first pick.

[Agent 86]

I agree it is. Never said it wasn't.

Lol. I posted prematurely. I meant to say I just wouldn’t wanna live there. Guess that’s why it’s more affordable.

[Maltopia]

Also, why does Dawson owe the Swans any loyalty? If we didn't draft him at 56, another team would have likely picked him up by pick 80. It is not like he had no AFL career if not for our team. Did we make him better than where he was at the start? Yes, but so could have other teams, or other teams could have gotten him to be top 22 earlier. We can never know as we don't a Sliding Doors ability to look at what would have happened to Dawson (and the Swans) if different choices have been made.

The industry is tough, look at how many players don't make it.

Imagine if you are a Sydneysider, and your son is at the Power or Crows and after six years wants to come home to NSW. You would be overjoyed. So I am sad for my team, but I wish Dawson the best as he deserves as much happiness and success as anyone else, and he is a human being after all, even though we treat him and other players as a commodity.

[stevoswan]

Outstanding post.

I have a memory of Dawson that’s etched in my mind.

In 2018, I was making my way up elevators in the Trumper stand. It was 40 minutes before a night time game. I looked into the Swans SCG gymnasium and there was this lone figure working hard all by himself. It was like Ronnie Coleman working out by himself in the dungeon in the 2000s.

Nobody else was in the Gymnasium. I said to my best mate “who’s that”. He said “Jordan Dawson, guy who plays reserves with that blistering left foot kick”. He was rehabbing all by himself. While his fellow reserves players were most probably entertaining groupies, Dawson was doing rehab.

In the words of TheBloods “Dawson was taking his career seriously”.

He worked very hard to get to his current position from pick 50. Any financial reward Dawson gets from the game he richly deserves.

Ho hum....it is what it is. Yes, we should all be very happy for him.... FFS!

[AppleCore]

For those who are saying that loyalty is a two-way street...I could not disagree more. No business is really a two-way street. Ever wonder why you can be fired on a moments notice but are expected to give two weeks notice when you decide to move on? One can't compare professional sports with other private businesses anyways...in other lines of work you want your company to make as much profit as possible and certainly don't support the competition. In professional sports, the league can only be viable if teams are all allowed to be competitive. The level of competitiveness will ebb and flow, but they must remain competititve overall. These young men who choose to play professional sports know what they are getting into. They know their future is out of their hands for about ten years or so...but they choose the profession for all sorts of reasons (including the possible money, fame, girls, etc.) They are well aware that they can be released or traded with no say...that is the nature of the beast and it is vital for the league to stay healthy. I have no problem when players become unrestricted and wanting to play for the team of their choice...that is the benefit and reward of being restricted. And, I will add, that is what was negotiated by the players' union as to the rules they will follow. If the precedent is set that players under the age of 26-28 can start to demand trades, then certain teams are bound to be severely hampered. Yes, it sounds like Dawson worked hard. Good for him. That was also to HIS benefit. But he also benefited from years of resources being put into his development. It generally takes 3-4 years to develop a youngster into a legitimate every day regular (not counting the superstars like Heeney, etc.) So to allow players to dictate terms as restricted free agents, once they finally start to blossom, is a very dangerous road to head down. Eventually, you will have things become like the NBA where 3 or 4 player-popular clubs (in Victoria, of course) will dominate. That is why there is a difference between restricted and unrestricted free agency and why it is so special when guys in their 30's only play for one club.

I don't believe Dawson is vital anyway...he had a break out year but it wasn't in a vacuum. He was part of a break-out team. I doubt he would have had been so successful playing for the Crows in 2021. The Swans will certainly recover from losing him. But the Swans and every other team need to be worried about the slippery slope of letting these young guys demand trades. They did the exact right thing with Papley two years ago. I hope they do it again with Dawson...

Very much agree with your first paragraph, but don't agree with your dismissal of Jordan's importance. His ability to hit targets at a distance is a rare and highly valuable skill.

[stevoswan]

State member? Quarantine and vaccination are federal responsibilities.

+1

Write to 'Scotty from marketing'.

[stevoswan]

Ok steveoswan. If you find the Franklin comparison laughable how about these ones.

Dawson 6 years on Swans list before departing
Hall 6 years at St.Kilda and Tippett 6 years at Adelaide before joining us.
Jolly 4 years at Melbourne.
Not to mention Plugger, Healy, Williams, Neagle etc

I will let you be the one to tell Barry he was a sook or mercenary and disloyal

If guys like Hannaberry and presumably Hewett can be moved on then presumably ok for Dawson to return to his home state.

Yada yada....don't agree. You still come up with irrelevant comparisons. Dawson gave us one year of good footy.

[Blood Fever]

+1

Write to 'Scotty from marketing'.

AKA The Artful Dodger

[stevoswan]

BS, I’m sorry, but statements like that are simply absolutely worthless. Anyone can claim they’re with such and such and they will corroborate their claim.

Yeah, it's reminding me of crap sports journo's who write "It has been reported....etc" as if whatever they're reporting on is set in stone..,..when in actual fact, it's either a rumour or just plain made up crap.

[Ludwig]

A few things to consider regarding trade compo for Dawson:

1. The top 10 in this draft is not very interesting for the Swans. The best action will come between picks 11 and 30. We should be looking for KPPs and except for Sam Darcy, who's going to WB, only Jye Amiss is a serious chance to go top 10, who I think may go to WCE who get to choose 2 picks earlier than us.
2. If we trade with Adelaide, it's not worth going after pick 4. If anything, we could try for their 2022 first rounder. Their 2nd round picks from both 2021 and 2022 could be a deal maker and I would take it, if offered.
3. If we trade with PA, one of their ruckmen might be interesting to get as part of a deal. We should remember that Ladhams and Hayes are contracted for next year, so they don't have to be part of any deal. It's their choice to stay or go. Ladhams is getting regular game time, and is a serious chance to become their #1 ruckman, so he's going to be hard to get, given he would be behind Hickey. Sam Hayes hasn't played an AFL game. It's hard to say what he's worth, or if he'd consider being part of a trade. We would have to look at this more closely.
4. Port's pick 16 is not bad in this draft. It would almost assuredly get us a couple of food quality KPPs. If we get an end of 2nd round pick for Hewett, we might be able to trade that off for Port's 2022 2nd rounder as part of a deal.
5. Going into this year's draft with picks 12, 16 and 31, before priority picks, is not too shabby, given our needs.
6. Threatening to send Dawson to the PSD is probably a hollow threat. I think the 3 clubs before the Crows are unlikely to get in the way of a deal. Why cause bad blood? If I were North or GC, I might consider grabbing Dawson in the PSD and trade him next year for a 1st round pick. It's a way to pick up a first rounder on the cheap. I don't think Dawson would sit out the year. But most club think this is dirty business, which is why it rarely happens.

[mcs]

Port's pick 16 is not bad in this draft. It would almost assuredly get us a couple of food quality KPPs. If we get an end of 2nd round pick for Hewett, we might be able to trade that off for Port's 2022 2nd rounder as part of a deal.

I know fans generally like to 'eat their own' Ludwig, but that's going a bit far isn't it, sepcifically targeting players for their food quality

Your actual points make a lot of sense however, and align broadly with my thoughts as well. Although I do think we can use the hollow threat of the PSD a little bit in negotiations if need be - but probably should not need to.