2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Markwebbos]

So there's a player in the first four of the untied players that the Cows want, that won't be there at pick 7. Otherwise Cows would do the pick swap with Richmond and give us pick 15 for Dawson.

A new top 30 prospects from Twomey up on the VFL website this morning so it's one of the players rated 4-6 the Cows want. I saw Horne-Francis live over the SANFL senior finals (BOG in the Prelim), so Daicos must be an unbelievable player to still be ranked at 1 ahead of JHF. Please bid on Daicos at pick 1 Norf, make Pies pay full price.

You are right 707. They’ve been trying to get pick 3 off Cold Ghost apparently.

[Buzz13]

Just wondering everyone's thoughts about who we may get at pick 12 (14). I love the look of Mac Andrew but will likely be gone by then....Do we think Wanganeen-Milera would be a great selection if still available by then...may take a year to develop some body size but his kicking is rated elite and the best in the competition which would suit our new game plan.

[Ludwig]

Just wondering everyone's thoughts about who we may get at pick 12 (14). I love the look of Mac Andrew but will likely be gone by then....Do we think Wanganeen-Milera would be a great selection if still available by then...may take a year to develop some body size but his kicking is rated elite and the best in the competition which would suit our new game plan.

1. Jacob van Rooyen
2. Toby Conway
3. Rhett Bazzo

[Buzz13]

There will be a lot of pick swapping taking place, we may even be involved, Dogs will be offloading pick 17 (19) for maximum points to pay for F/S Darcy around pick 3/4[/QUOTE]

The dogs could be a key player. I wonder if the crows could trade picks 23 & 37 (1250 pts) to the dogs in return for pick 17 (1050 pts) and then pass on the pick 17 to us in return for Dawson?

[707]

Or we just take those picks from the Cows and do our own pick swap

[Markwebbos]

There will be a lot of pick swapping taking place, we may even be involved, Dogs will be offloading pick 17 (19) for maximum points to pay for F/S Darcy around pick 3/4

The dogs could be a key player. I wonder if the crows could trade picks 23 & 37 (1250 pts) to the dogs in return for pick 17 (1050 pts) and then pass on the pick 17 to us in return for Dawson?

There will be a bidding war for that Dogs pick. You'd want the Crows to do the deal or make it part of a three way trade so we aren't left high and dry.

Does everyone think we'll just go after talls this draft? All of a sudden our list does feel a lot deeper than it did (talls aside that is)

I'm sure another mid with the potential to be elite wouldn't go Amiss, or maybe a small forward in the mould of Kosi Pickett that's quick enough to work both offensively and defensively.

[The Big Cat]

Campbell signed till end of 2025
Sinclair and COR for next year.

[KSAS]

Hope Logan McDonald's contract is also extended soon, same as respective first year players Campbell & Gulden.

[Markwebbos]

Tom Harley speaks on Dawson and Hewett

Sydney CEO provides player movement update on two key Swans

[TheBloods]

Dawson would be happy to go in pre season draft . North , Pies and Suns arent going to take on a player asking for 700k just so he can leave in a year , would be reckless on their part and would F up their trade relationship with the Crows . He 'll get to Adelaide in the PSD no worries if it gets to that , we need to take whatever we can get from it , dont have much bargaining power here so have to cut our losses

[Auntie.Gerald]

Dawso wont be let go of easily

Hewett has out blessing is my sense after listening to Tom

[i'm-uninformed2]

Campbell signed till end of 2025
Sinclair and COR for next year.

Looking less and less likely we keep Reid

[KSAS]

Dawso wont be let go of easily

Hewett has out blessing is my sense after listening to Tom

+1 Get impression club were blindsided with Dawson's trade request, which may suggests this was a last minute change of heart decision. Also got impression they may still try to persuade him to stay.

Hewett seems like a salary cap relief decision & they think he's easily replaceable, particularly since club haven't him offered a contract. Hewett coulld we'll be a Carlton player by the end of the day with FA trades opening today.

[Kafka's Ghost]

+1 Get impression club were blindsided with Dawson's trade request, which may suggests this was a last minute change of heart decision. Also got impression they may still try to persuade him to stay.

Hewett seems like a salary cap relief decision & they think he's easily replaceable, particularly since club haven't him offered a contract. Hewett coulld we'll be a Carlton player by the end of the day with FA trades opening today.

Agree with this summation. Listening to Harley, he sounded really annoyed and frustrated, so I also believe the club was blindsided. In fact, when Dawson said mid-season Swans’ fans had nothing to worry about, he was likely telling the truth. We have no idea what’s going on in players’ personal lives or what’s motivating them, but this sounds very much a last minute decision. Who knows who might have got in his ear, or what prompted his change of mind, but I’m sure the club believed he was staying right up until that Friday afternoon.

[Markwebbos]

Agree with this summation. Listening to Harley, he sounded really annoyed and frustrated, so I also believe the club was blindsided. In fact, when Dawson said mid-season Swans’ fans had nothing to worry about, he was likely telling the truth. We have no idea what’s going on in players’ personal lives or what’s motivating them, but this sounds very much a last minute decision. Who knows who might have got in his ear, or what prompted his change of mind, but I’m sure the club believed he was staying right up until that Friday afternoon.

+1

I found this article on SEN of interest, when thinking about the value of a player being traded.

How often do top 10 picks turn into All-Australian calibre players?

Using players drafted between 2005-2015 as the sample, if you took a player in the top ten, there was only a 28% chance they'd become an all Australian. Or looking at it the other way round, if you have an AA quality player (like a Dawson) you should be getting between 3 and 4 top-ten picks back to give you a replacement player that will become an AA.

To me it shows how far the balance is tilted in favour of the club receiving the player, and that pick 4 would not be overs.

You could argue that clubs are better at drafting than they were 15 years ago, but I'd guess the stats wouldn't be drastically different.