2022 List management, trading, drafting

[troyjones2525]

Its interesting that in the history of GWS, we have yet to grab any of their players. The closest was Cunningham but he was a reject from their final culling of their list. Given how they have lost so many players over the years (mostly to Vic clubs), its surprising that not one has come our way. I know people will say its the go home factor to Victoria but not everyone wants to live there.

Yeah I agree with this. It is usually the go home factor when they lose players but it is disappointing that we have never landed one of theirs. Hopefully we can in the near future that'll top of our premiership build!

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[Markwebbos]

I wonder if that’s not an accident?

[Aprilbr]

I wonder if that’s not an accident?

I'm pretty confident that there is no gentlemen's agreement between the Clubs. They have grabbed a couple of ours over the years, just none going back the other way to this point.

[KTigers]

Its interesting that in the history of GWS, we have yet to grab any of their players. The closest was Cunningham but he was a reject from their final culling of their list. Given how they have lost so many players over the years (mostly to Vic clubs), its surprising that not one has come our way. I know people will say its the go home factor to Victoria but not everyone wants to live there.

Given all the clubs have the same list size and bring in the same number of draftees each year then shouldn't the turnover at all the clubs be
much the same.
It would make sense that they would lose a lot of good players. Weren't they given a pile of Top 10 draft picks in the early years. Many of
them would turn into really good players and start commanding the sort of money really good players get and because of the salary cap
and the good ole "go home factor" GWS were unable to keep all of them. The same thing would happened to any club in that position.
It's just the nature of the cap. You can only have so many players on top line money.

[liz]

Given all the clubs have the same list size and bring in the same number of draftees each year then shouldn't the turnover at all the clubs be
much the same.

They don't all bring in the same number of draftees each year.

[KTigers]

They don't all bring in the same number of draftees each year.

Yeah, but it probably doesn't vary a lot between the teams.

[707]

I don't know that we could fit either of these 2 in the salary cap. I suspect their value is over stated and would they be able to transition into a superior culture.

We have salary cap space if we want a player like Taranto OOC, or Hopper contracted to 2023. Taranto is very good but he's no super star, disposal can be a bit suspect I reckon but happy for others who might have observed him more closely to offer an opinion. Disposal like Dawson only comes along once in a while.

Kennedy almost certain to hang up the boots this year. In fact I'm not sure where he fits on the field for us any more unless it's permanent sub? The back line is working well and settled.

[707]

They don't all bring in the same number of draftees each year.

Correct, I reckon you'd find the higher up the ladder the club is, the less draftees they take. Bottom clubs often have high turnover.

This year we'll probably only use three picks, currently 12, 18, 30

[bloodspirit]

I wonder if that’s not an accident?

Yes, I wonder too. Although it's true there has been some traffic the other way, they haven't exactly been poached (Mummy was picked off when we didn't have enough money to pay him, Jed Lamb we were happy to let go - are there others?).

Correct, I reckon you'd find the higher up the ladder the club is, the less draftees they take. Bottom clubs often have high turnover.

This year we'll probably only use three picks, currently 12, 18, 30

I'm certain we'll turn over more than 3 players this off season and it wouldn't surprise me at all if it was double that much. As a minimum I expect to see four depart (say Naismith, Kennedy, Taylor and Sinclair) and I'd wager there'll be more than that.

[Ludwig]

I was going through Freo's team as a preview for this Saturday's game and noted the interesting sources of their list development. They have done very well extracting players from a variety of places, which is something we've been generally good at.

Picking out just one example is Freo taking Taberner in 2013 as a 20 yo and Shultz in 2018 as a 21 yo. Both were 4th round picks. Taberner didn't really get going until his 8th year in 2020. It's a long time to stay on a list as a depth player. Maybe Hayden McLean (who I mistakenly left out of my drafted players list) will turn out to be such a player.

Robbie Fox is one overager who has worked out for us. I suppose we can put Lloyd and Papley in that category, both rookie drafted as 19 yos.

There seem to be a lot of success stories of late by drafting overagers. Excellent value for money. I'm not sure this is the year for us to tap this market, having 3 top 40 draft picks. Mutaz El Nour was in the sights of many, but surprisingly didn't get taken in the mid-season draft. He would be someone of interest from the 2nd round forward.

On a separate matter, I compared the stats for Cam Zurhaar and Will Hayward. They are quite close statistically and if anything, Hayward would be ahead. Yet it's interesting that the perception of many on here would be that Zurhaar would be an upgrade on Hayward. I was one of those, but am now having a rethink. Here are the comparison stats for the current season:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=17&playerStatus2=A&tid2=13&type=A&pid1=6347&pid2=6407&fid1=S&fid2=S

[Maltopia]

On a separate matter, I compared the stats for Cam Zurhaar and Will Hayward. They are quite close statistically and if anything, Hayward would be ahead. Yet it's interesting that the perception of many on here would be that Zurhaar would be an upgrade on Hayward. I was one of those, but am now having a rethink. Here are the comparison stats for the current season:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...&fid1=S&fid2=S

But Hayward is getting those stats on a winning team where there ball is getting up forward more regularly than in North Melbourne's case, whereas Zurhaar is getting similar stats without the benefit of a midfield and defence like ours.

There is also some attraction I guess to Zurhaar being a number 11 pick and should have more potential in him I guess?

[Ludwig]

I'm certain we'll turn over more than 3 players this off season and it wouldn't surprise me at all if it was double that much. As a minimum I expect to see four depart (say Naismith, Kennedy, Taylor and Sinclair) and I'd wager there'll be more than that.

We've already used Naismith on HKK, so that would only leave 3 live picks. The 2 Irishmen are both in jeopardy of being cut. BOC would really have to put together a big final 2 months, and COR always seems to get injured when given a chance in the senior team. I would have Bell in my delistings, because I can't see how he gets a game in the future with several players in the VFL looking better prospects and having another draft year coming with fresh faces to choose from. But it would seem that the coaches value him more highly, so will probably keep his spot on the list. One thing that could hurt Bell is the recent success of Clarke, who is looking a better choice to be retained than Bell, based on AFL performances.

[Ludwig]

But Hayward is getting those stats on a winning team where there ball is getting up forward more regularly than in North Melbourne's case, whereas Zurhaar is getting similar stats without the benefit of a midfield and defence like ours.

There is also some attraction I guess to Zurhaar being a number 11 pick and should have more potential in him I guess?

Zurhaar was a number 11 pick in the rookie draft.

An argument can be made that Zurhaar has more opportunities to be targeting in a weak forward line. Surprisingly, Hayward has better stats in tackles and intercepts. I would have thought Zurhaar would be the better defensive player. Hayward's pressure acts are also better than Cam's.

It's hard to justify trading for a player to replace a player who is arguably better. Zurhaar has some spectacular moments which improves the perception we have of him as a player.

I think Liz suggested Tarrryn Thomas as someone to look at on North's list. He's had a terrible year and he's contracted until 2024. I would think North would want to keep him. But he looked a real star last year and someone who fits our game plan. I wonder if he's gettable.

[Nico]

I wouldn't take anyone from North. A Champion Data analysis of their list in the Herald Sun today only rate 5 players as above average. They have 16 players out of contract. There are a staggering number of players who have played none or few games. Maybe their recruiters who walked did the club a favour. Zurhaar is rated as average.

They rated the following as above average: Jed Anderson 28, Jack Ziebell 31, Luke McDonald 27, Todd Goldstein 34, Aaron Hall 31. Cunnington 31 was an N/A. I think their list is in a lot of strife. The new coach will be endeavoring to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

[Markwebbos]

I wouldn't take anyone from North. A Champion Data analysis of their list in the Herald Sun today only rate 5 players as above average. They have 16 players out of contract. There are a staggering number of players who have played none or few games. Maybe their recruiters who walked did the club a favour. Zurhaar is rated as average.

They rated the following as above average: Jed Anderson 28, Jack Ziebell 31, Luke McDonald 27, Todd Goldstein 34, Aaron Hall 31. Cunnington 31 was an N/A. I think their list is in a lot of strife. The new coach will be endeavoring to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

LDU
Tarryn Thomas
Jy Simpkin
Zurhaar
Horne-Francis