2023 List Management

[barry]

I saw an article today about academies where it described Isaac Heeney as a bargain basement pick 18.

I think he's turned out exactly what a pick 18 should be. Thoughts?

[Maltopia]

I saw an article today about academies where it described Isaac Heeney as a bargain basement pick 18.

I think he's turned out exactly what a pick 18 should be. Thoughts?

Last year, 18 would be generous.

In a couple of precious years he looked like he would be a superstar and next tier down from. Petracca/Bont.

On average I think 18 is slightly harsh when you look at where Florent and Hayward were taken (or Towers at 21? or Zac Jones at 14 ish).

[barry]

Please don't compare swans first round selection. We are a disaster.

[barry]

Fun fact: lots of previous pick 18's were traded this year:

2012 Collingwood Brodie Grundy
2015 St Kilda Jade Gresham
2018 Port Adelaide Xavier Duursma

[i'm-uninformed2]

Please don't compare swans first round selection. We are a disaster.

Logan will make it all worthwhile

[Thunder Shaker]

Logan will make it all worthwhile

Assuming he doesn't end up at Fremantle.

[Maltopia]

Please don't compare swans first round selection. We are a disaster.

Heeney at ‘18’ is an absolute steal compared to Towers at 22, Hayward at 21, Konstanty at 20, Jones at 15, Ling at 14, Veszpremi at 11, Rohan at 6 and Stephens at 5.

Why did we not stuff that one up? Well he was an academy player and we weren’t competing with other talent scouts in identifying good players from the open pool and stuffing up as usual.

Logan may make up for it, but we haven’t done a great early open pick since McVeigh 20ish years ago.

Florent is coming along at last as an 11, but he wouldn’t make the defence/midfield of some of the other top eight teams.

Sheldrick at 18 too early to tell.

Anyways, I can’t believe there are another bloody 32 days till the draft… over a month to hope for a good selection and not another Beatson special!

[neilfws]

There's an article on the ABC news site called "How the trade period could turn next year's AFL season on its head". The link button that enables one to post links to troublesome websites seems to have gone walkabout (as it does, from time to time) and my attempts to paste the URL as plain text aren't working. But I am sure most people can find their way to the ABC site.

If anyone does, can they explain the charts included in the article?

None of it is especially intuitive.

I agree, it is quite difficult to process the information. But I think the charts are broadly consistent with the methods developed by the authors.

It helps to start with the chart further down the page, "The players or the picks?" which has 3 tabs: one for player value, 2023 picks and 2024 picks, respectively.

Let's look at Richmond. They have gained 16.4 in player value, 26.2 in 2023 pick value and 67.2 in 2024 pick value. Total: 109.8, which is the light blue bar in the upper chart, under "Adrian Dodoro leaves with an October win".

Where do the numbers come from? We can use the HPN trade calculator to find the values for players or picks. And there's a complete trade summary per team at Footyology.

Richmond gained Koschitzke (35.4) and lost Soldo (18.2) and Nyuon (0.8). 35.4 - 18.2 - 0.8 = 16.4.

Richmond gained picks 41 (34.2) and 65 (20.2). They lost pick 50 (28.2). 34.2 + 20.2 - 28.2 = 26.2.

I haven't found a calculator for future picks but this is where Richmond scored big: future second and fourth, both from Port Adelaide, equals 67.2.


On to Melbourne. They have lost -68.3 in player value, -12.4 in 2023 pick value and gained 1.9 in 2024 pick value, for a total of -78.8.

Melbourne gained Billings (8.74), McAdam (13.03) and Fullarton (3.89). They lost Grundy (26.28), Harmes (17.34) and Jordon (46.44). Summing those gives -64.4 which is not quite -68.3. It's possible that the values have altered slightly since the ABC article was published.

Picks: Melbourne gained 11 (74.15) and 42 (33.47). They lost 14 (66.83), 28 (45.78) and 36 (38.15). Summing those gives -43.1. However Melbourne on-traded pick 47 (30.06) via Sydney to Brisbane. I think we add that to the sum to get -13.1, which is close to -12.4.

Melbourne's future picks are second (Sydney) and third (Bulldogs). They gave away second (Adelaide) and third (St Kilda). So I guess that more or less balances to give the small gain of 1.9.


Next: Adelaide. They lost -42.4 in player value, gained 27.0 in 2023 pick value and gained 40.8 in 2024 pick value, total 25.4.

Players in: Burgess (3.43). Players out: Doedee (32.79), McAdam (13.03). This sums to the expected value -42.4.

Picks in: 14 (66.83) and 20 (56). Picks out: 24 (50.46) and 27 (46.89). Total = 25.5, not quite 27.0 but close enough.

Just the one future pick: second (Melbourne) which must account for the remaining 40.8.


Last one - Brisbane. They gained 25.5 in player value, 9.4 in 2023 pick value and lost -14.2 in 2024 pick value.

Players in: Doedee (32.79) and Ryan (1.91). Players out: Gunston (9.21) and Fullarton (3.89). I make that only 21.6 not 25.5 but again, the values may have shifted a little.

Picks in: 39 (35.72) and 54 (25.84). Picks out: 61 (22.14). Which makes 39.4. But Brisbane get the on-traded 47 (30.06) from Melbourne via Sydney and on-trade it to Hawthorn. I think they "pay" for that, so 39.4 - 30.06 gets us to the expected 9.4.

Future picks: in - fourth (Hawthorn), out - second (Hawthorn). I guess that accounts for the unfavourable -14.2.

I hope that (a) I got that mostly right and (b) it helps!

PAV (Player Approximate Value) is a measure of player value in a given year. The details of how it's calculated are here.

Then there is a model, you'll be pleased to know named PAPLEY, which projects a player's estimated value over their career. It's described briefly here.

For the methods to predict the value of draft picks - see here.

[Thunder Shaker]

SEN has given a grade to the trade period for all 18 clubs.

Sydney got the highest grade, A+.

TRADE GRADES: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon and Fremantle
TRADE GRADES: Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, Melbourne and North Melbourne
TRADE GRADES: Port Adelaide, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney, West Coast and Western Bulldogs

[KSAS]

Assuming he doesn't end up at Fremantle.

I'm quietly confident Logan will sign new contract with us that will take him to RFA, for the following reasons:
- Both West Coast & Freo won't be in finals contention, let alone top 4 for a while yet.
- We should be in top 4 / premiership window for a good while.
- He appears settled & happy in Sydney. No indications of home sickness. Surrounded with WA mates.
- Gets to shine more with Buddy now retired. Stats reflect this when Buddy didn't play.
- With Grundy & Adams bolstering our midfield, should be receiving even more ball & shots on goal.
- Have cap space to pay him good contract (will accept unders to what Freo or WC may throw at him).

[KSAS]

Fun speculation: A family member spotted Ivan Soldo on a late mid week flight (9pm) from Sydney to Melbourne last week, during Richmond's bye week off. Led to wild speculation whether he may flew up to have talks with us, considering our ruck stocks & if Hickey's body will hold up. GWS appear to be ok with their ruck stocks. Soldo will be 28yo next year but we would have to trade for him, as he is contracted till end of next year. Originally recruited from the Northern Knights (Vic) but did grew up in Canberra.

After learning of Soldo's trade to PA this week, I'm convinced we had talks with him back in June & was on our short list till Grundy became gettable (thankfully).

[caj23]

After learning of Soldo's trade to PA this week, I'm convinced we had talks with him back in June & was on our short list till Grundy became gettable (thankfully).

Agreed Soldo is no good

[dejavoodoo44]

I'm quietly confident Logan will sign new contract with us that will take him to RFA, for the following reasons:
- Both West Coast & Freo won't be in finals contention, let alone top 4 for a while yet.
- We should be in top 4 / premiership window for a good while.
- He appears settled & happy in Sydney. No indications of home sickness. Surrounded with WA mates.
- Gets to shine more with Buddy now retired. Stats reflect this when Buddy didn't play.
- With Grundy & Adams bolstering our midfield, should be receiving even more ball & shots on goal.
- Have cap space to pay him good contract (will accept unders to what Freo or WC may throw at him).

And to add another one: neither of the WA clubs have Errol kicking the ball into the 50.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Would the Suns take our pick 11 for Hollands?[/url]

I'm sure they would have been overjoyed to do so.
Easy to see why they offloaded him for a barely advantageous exchange of picks.
I hope for the kids sake someone explains that being caught in posession is not a positive on field, or off it.

[707]

The minimum first round use ruling can be modified at the AFL's discretion, so Port getting a 19yo pick 1 in JHF last trade period counts as using a first round pick for 2022.

I've watched JHF every morning for the past fortnight, at my local oval here in Adelaide, working with ten or so potential draftees. He's still driving his 4WD with blue and white Vic number plates LOL