2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Aprilbr]

It is what has been reported. Most of all I think this shows that the AFL has the shape of the points curve wrong, assigning too much relative value to second and third round picks. On the other hand, I believe the slope is too steep at the top end of the draft - ie the difference in points value from pick 1 to pick 2, and from pick 2 to pick 3, etc, is too high.

Agreed Liz. I had a look at how this points system is calculated and its based on salaries of players taken at that number in the past. Seems to be far from a perfect objective measure. If I had a choice of 13 or 26 and 28 together then normally I would take 13. Its only because of the trade value of the points that the Swans would consider such a move.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

[liz]

Agreed Liz. I had a look at how this points system is calculated and its based on salaries of players taken at that number in the past. Seems to be far from a perfect objective measure. If I had a choice of 13 or 26 and 28 together then normally I would take 13. Its only because of the trade value of the points that the Swans would consider such a move.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

It kind of is - certainly that's how the AFL said they came up with it. But even if they plotted those data points there would have been many shapes of curves they could have fitted through it and claimed it to be valid. In practice, I suspect none would really be valid, particularly as the talent contours of the draft vary significantly from year to year.

[rickmat]

Harley on Trade Radio now so we should get some enlightenment on Langdon and dealing update with St Kilda. Terry Wallace saying we will go backwards next season as our depth is not good!!!

[Aprilbr]

I just listened to Harley. No revelations from it other than they are not chasing any big fish this trade period.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

[ernie koala]

Harley on Trade Radio now so we should get some enlightenment on Langdon and dealing update with St Kilda. Terry Wallace saying we will go backwards next season as our depth is not good!!!

Terry Wallace then backtracks after Harley enlightens him on the plan for some of our existing players moving to the midfield ....Hardly rocket science.

Apparently this never crossed his mind when he was preparing his critique of the Swans going forward. What a poorly researched and thought out critique.

If he had bothered to look at what the Swans have done so far this trade period and what they in the mix for, he should of been able to see that midfield depth is being addressed.

[Aprilbr]

I thought that Terry Wallace's list analysis was pretty accurate. He feels we need to get a bit more risk taking and adventurous with both our list and our game plan. He highlighted our big drop off in scoring power this season and in recent finals. Urgent need for more midfield depth and run, and a need for more scoring options. Hard to argue with that!

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

[stellation]

Harley on Trade Radio now so we should get some enlightenment on Langdon and dealing update with St Kilda. Terry Wallace saying we will go backwards next season as our depth is not good!!!

Has Terry said anything positive about the Swans since 2002?

[Aprilbr]

If so the deal is far better than people thought. Picking up over 600 points by giving up 13. Its equivalent to 5/6. I'm still not convinced that this is all correct. It seems a little too good to be true. I hope that I am wrong.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

Harley just confirmed that we did get 40. This looks a GREAT deal for us given the points need for Blakey. I wonder if any other academy players might be drafted as well?

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

[Ludwig]

I think this shows that the AFL has the shape of the points curve wrong, assigning too much relative value to second and third round picks. On the other hand, I believe the slope is too steep at the top end of the draft - ie the difference in points value from pick 1 to pick 2, and from pick 2 to pick 3, etc, is too high.

Of course the shape is wrong. It was designed specifically to make our bid match for Mills as costly as possible. This was one of the many anti-Swans diktats of that period to punish the Swans for the Franklin signing, having 2 gun academy midfielders in consecutive years and calling out Eddie for his racist attack on Adam Goodes.

So now we are left with this warped value curve that doesn't reflect the true value proportions of the draft. So it's backfired for the AFL as now we can exploit this anomaly to our advantage.

[AnnieH]

Harley on Trade Radio now so we should get some enlightenment on Langdon and dealing update with St Kilda. Terry Wallace saying we will go backwards next season as our depth is not good!!!

Terry Wallace is just bitter and twisted that the "supporters" wanted Roosey, and not him.
He should get over it.

[ernie koala]

We just need some positive news on the Hannebery trade (pick39 and next years 2nd rounder perhaps) to complete an excellent day of trading by the Swans .

Get over it Terry.

[caj23]

I thought that Terry Wallace's list analysis was pretty accurate. He feels we need to get a bit more risk taking and adventurous with both our list and our game plan. He highlighted our big drop off in scoring power this season and in recent finals. Urgent need for more midfield depth and run, and a need for more scoring options. Hard to argue with that!

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

Didn't hear it but if that's an accurate summation then I agree with him 100%

We've got the list capable of winning a premiership if everything goes right, just need to change a few things here and there

[Aprilbr]

Wallace did not view our list this year as being a premiership winning one and thinks that we will slip next season. Obviously just his view.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

[ernie koala]

Missed out on Vandenberg. He's re signed with the Demons...Great loyalty from him.

[AB Swannie]

https://twitter.com/melbournefc/status/1049902499484848129