2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Nico]

A big forward/ruckman who can't get a game this year is the Suns' Peter Wright. I can't see him cracking the Suns' lineup this year, barring injury. I think he's on big money, as are most of the Suns, but could well be available at year end. I haven't been impressed by him, but it's hard to judge the Suns' players when the team has performed so poorly until this year.

From what I have seen of him he has mostly been played as a forward. His body seems sound. I heard him interviewed a couple of years ago and he seems quite an intelligent person. Having said his body is sound, he said when he was off injured he went back to his junior club and did some mentoring. Might just fit the bill given clubs may have to delist players and might take what he can to kick start his career.

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Low work rate, strikes me as too lazy to be a full time ruck.

Ralphygirl; I doubt any AFL player is intentionally lazy. He might just have reached his level of incompetency.

[Nico]

Ludwig; I have seen so many of our players over the decades who were comfortable being second to the footy then jump on an opposition player to make a tackle, instead of being first to the footy and making the play. Roos turned this around when he became coach and we gained our reputation as a fierce, inside beast of a team that we carried until the end of season 2018. I watch other teams today and they appear to have taken a lot of how they play from the Paul Roos/Sydney playbook. We prided ourselves on 2 way running but this seems to have deserted us. Maybe Mills to the midfield will help in that department.

We have to get back that hard edge.

[Ludwig]

From what I have seen of him he has mostly been played as a forward. His body seems sound. I heard him interviewed a couple of years ago and he seems quite an intelligent person. Having said his body is sound, he said when he was off injured he went back to his junior club and did some mentoring. Might just fit the bill given clubs may have to delist players and might take what he can to kick start his career.
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I think that's what we need in lieu of a full time ruckman. We would have 3 or 4 forwards who can play the position with some reasonable level of competency. Sinclair is that sort of player, but I would like to see a higher level of play in both positions. That last great half season from Tippett was the ideal. He was just about the best ruckman in the league and damaging as a forward as well. We had the player in peak form, but only for 3 months.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

I find the idea of a genuine ruckman/key forward pretty improbable. I don't say it's impossible, but improbable. Akin to a mammal that lays eggs
The demands of the two roles contain considerable incompatibilities - the physical requirements too aren't a perfect match.
Perhaps that may have been a factor as to why Tippett only managed it for 3 months, before collapse Ludwig?

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Salary cap isn't the one constraint affecting list management. List spots and senior opportunities (ie a balance between who takes for granted/expects/hopes/needs development across the list) are also factors.

I agree there are other constraints in list management. And not just list spots and opportunities, success too, and what might be called 'lifestyle' factors like homesickness are all cited. Indeed, the one determinant that doesn't seem to be cited by players and teams are remuneration and the salary cap.

In fact, remuneration and the salary cap are so studiously not mentioned, that you can almost see the outline of the elephant in the room - you can certainly smell the manure.

I cannot but believe that remuneration and the salary cap are the overwhelmingly primary determinants overall.

In the case of Mal, are you sure that length of contract and post playing employment aren't just ways to work around the limitations of the annual salary cap?




(*) - This post is in no way a criticism of the club, it's recruiting, He Who Must Not Be Named, or any RWOer past present or future. It's just a suggested perspective.

[The Big Cat]

I find the idea of a genuine ruckman/key forward pretty improbable. I don't say it's impossible, but improbable. Akin to a mammal that lays eggs
The demands of the two roles contain considerable incompatibilities - the physical requirements too aren't a perfect match.
Perhaps that may have been a factor as to why Tippett only managed it for 3 months, before collapse Ludwig?

The platypus and echidna are mammals who lay eggs, so it’s possible.

[Auntie.Gerald]

poor execution......... is in part because of the dominance of the bulldogs offensive defence forced us to play catch up and force the pass

i dont like out lack of hunt right now

i dont like our LACK of set up to pounce on the oppositions attack

i have seen one qtr this season......that showed the intense hunt in numbers ie blitz defence we have been renowned for..........the best teams in the comp force you to turn over the ball........the best team in the comp force you to play on their terms

ludwig for me i am not looking at compromised training or matches as the areas that contributing to our problems.........that is similar for most teams i would have thought ?


For me i am not seeing us move the opposition attack into the parts of the field we want to apply high pressure, cause turnovers and capitalise !

That concerns be greatly as it is the bedrock of all successful teams in most codes

[Ruck'n'Roll]

The platypus and echidna are mammals who lay eggs, so it’s possible.

Indeed yes, I was quite pleased with that analogy.

[Nico]

poor execution......... is in part because of the dominance of the bulldogs offensive defence forced us to play catch up and force the pass

i dont like out lack of hunt right now

i dont like our LACK of set up to pounce on the oppositions attack

i have seen one qtr this season......that showed the intense hunt in numbers ie blitz defence we have been renowned for..........the best teams in the comp force you to turn over the ball........the best team in the comp force you to play on their terms

ludwig for me i am not looking at compromised training or matches as the areas that contributing to our problems.........that is similar for most teams i would have thought ?


For me i am not seeing us move the opposition attack into the parts of the field we want to apply high pressure, cause turnovers and capitalise !

That concerns be greatly as it is the bedrock of all successful teams in most codes

Bedrock! Is Fred Flintstone out of contract yet?

[707]

Now down to pick 8, a little lower and I'd reckon we could snag a draftee before the Campbell bid.

With Covid now really out of control in Melbourne, any thoughts of restarting the U18 comp and an U18 Championships must now be getting close to canned. Would make for a busts and bargains draft having to rely on U17 age vision when we know some standout players drop off as they age and others come from the clouds to be successful high draft picks. In Kinnear we trust

[Mr Magoo]

Now down to pick 8, a little lower and I'd reckon we could snag a draftee before the Campbell bid.

With Covid now really out of control in Melbourne, any thoughts of restarting the U18 comp and an U18 Championships must now be getting close to canned. Would make for a busts and bargains draft having to rely on U17 age vision when we know some standout players drop off as they age and others come from the clouds to be successful high draft picks. In Kinnear we trust

Swans are in a better position than most as worst case they just take Campbell and Gulden and then look out for one other.

Campbell wont get past pick 8 so we will be taking him then. Gulden will go as our second or third rounder and then its a matter of maybe taking one more. I doubt clubs will take many more than the ones they are obligated to take this year.

If lists are reduced its doubtful that many (if any) rookies will be taken as I would imagine this is the first list to trim. All of last years draftees will be kept you would think as they havent even been able to show they can play at Neafl level.

[bloodspirit]

Campbell wont get past pick 8 so we will be taking him then.

I'm not convinced of that. I think his stature will count against him, even despite Rowell's success. But he's no Matt Rowell. Then again I am basing that on having never seen him play or even much footage - whereas I realise you follow this much more closely and I certainly respect your opinion on that count.

The idea around having an Aliir/Amartey type ruck option is that we take a different approach to the stoppages. We opt for having another mobile player at stoppages, but recognise that we will be losing most hitouts. If you know this in advance, the team trains for this and turns it into an advantage.

Amartey, although undersized for a ruckman, is actually pretty good at his ruck craft and is not a liability around the ground. He's had some very good NEAFL games, but hasn't quite convinced that he is AFL ready. Hopefully this is just a matter of time and further development.

It's true that Aliir has started the season poorly in defence (he's not the only one). He's not a great one on one defender, but plays much better when we have a real fullback in the lineup. We are quite well stocked in the the key defender position with Brand, Melican, Maibaum, O'Connor and Gould all training with the defender group. Moving Aliir out of this group should improve list balance. Aliir hasn't been great when starting as a forward, but he should work his way into the position now that he has more experience. He's still only a 54 gamer and has a lot of development left before he reaches his peak.

Although we haven't been all that effective moving the ball forward, it's mainly due to poor execution. We can see that the game plan is to move the ball with speed. Nearly every player drafted in recent years is quick. The Swans didn't bid on Tom Green, because we don't need another slow midfielder. We already have JPK, Parker, Hewett and Mills. We are not going to be a stoppage dominant team, but rather an outside running team. So players like Stephens, McInerney, Ling, Stoddart and Blakey are more in line with this playing style. Rowbottom, Florent and Warner, who can play on ball and spread from the contest with speed, are more suitable to this playing style than someone like Tom Greene.

Regardless of how we might classify a player, inside or outside, slow or quick, every player has to be hard at the contest and play a solid defensive game. Not all the players are up to the task atm, but I feel the willingness is there. It's just the application. Just taking Hayward as an example, I find that he's a very willing tackler and is not at all a soft player. He just goes missing too much. Ronke has always been willing at the contest, but poor in his execution. He has improved in this area of his game and hopefully it continues. He was involved in some of good play against the Dogs and was one of our better players overall, although I wouldn't say he played well (the 'bests' list was pretty short).

It's easy to confuse poor execution with poor form in a season with a compromised training schedule and limited match practice. The polish is missing at the Swans, but could return quickly.

Really good post! I agree about Hayward - I thought he tried hard and wasn't soft - he just wasn't effective. I'm unconvinced that we couldn't use Green - I think he'd be an asset to any team and to most teams more than he is to GWS. But they won't let him go - they'd rather trade out any of Caldwell, Hately or O'Halloran if they have to. I'm also not as sold on Amartey as you are. A few good NEAFL games is not enough to convince me. I hope he comes good but I also won't be surprised if he is cut at the end of the season.

I agree there are other constraints in list management. And not just list spots and opportunities, success too, and what might be called 'lifestyle' factors like homesickness are all cited. Indeed, the one determinant that doesn't seem to be cited by players and teams are remuneration and the salary cap.

In fact, remuneration and the salary cap are so studiously not mentioned, that you can almost see the outline of the elephant in the room - you can certainly smell the manure.

I cannot but believe that remuneration and the salary cap are the overwhelmingly primary determinants overall.

The other central part of any list management equation is the trade cost in terms of picks, not just salary cap. They are both very significant from a club's point of view.

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I don't know whether Peter Wright should be targetted but we should consider him if there's nobody better. However I think he should be targetted primarily as either ruck or forward - we have to decide which. Probably as a forward who can relieve in the ruck. My impression is that he's quite different to Reid, Buddy, Blakey and McCartin - he's taller and less mobile. More the big body marking target. How are his contested marking stats?

[Mr Magoo]

Agree Bloodspirit that in any normal year , Campbell might slip due to his size but if they are going to continue with a normal draft this year and with such limited amount of games for anyone to show anything then players will be taken more on reputation and his BOG in last years all star match will give him a fair bit of kudos.

I agree that hes not Matt Rowell , in fact hes probably more like Heeney as a style of player. In his junior footy he hasnt really played that dominant twenty five possessions a game role but moreso getting fifteen to twenty a game but with some really classy moments in them. He has a booming left foot but I would have liked to see both him and Gulden compete at 18s level through the NAB series and Allies to actually see if they could be dominant in those settings with an extra year of development and growth across the age group anbd thereby justify there lofty rankings.

Whether or not he slips past say eight, my mail is that the swans have given him some fairly good indications that he is all but drafted and if they have any intention of taking Gulden as well they won't want to risk missing them both through lack of points. I would have thought they will grab him with their first pick and then use points to match for Gulden should he come earlier than their third round pick.

[bloodspirit]

Whether or not he slips past say eight, my mail is that the swans have given him some fairly good indications that he is all but drafted and if they have any intention of taking Gulden as well they won't want to risk missing them both through lack of points. I would have thought they will grab him with their first pick and then use points to match for Gulden should he come earlier than their third round pick.

I spoke directly to Tom Harley in September last year and he pretty much confirmed that we intended to draft Campbell and Gulden. I guess anything can happen though - and quite a lot has happened!

As for the draft strategy, I think any time you can get an extra top pick, you take it, even if you have to go into deficit for the following year. There are a couple of alternatives:

* Potentially we could trade someone out who has trade value to cover the points cost if that were necessary, although I don't think that's smart because 9 times out of 10 the club trading out gets unders (sometimes this is corrected with hindsight when a recruit doesn't perform to expectations). Anyway, I can't think of anyone we'd want to trade out who has value. Either they have no significant trade value or we want to keep them. It's only if someone who we don't want to leave forces us to trade them that we might get some picks back.

* The other option, might be to trade out some future picks for picks in 2020 to cover extra points. Normally I think this strategy would be bad because you typically get unders when trading forward a year. While this can be worthwhile if you need to do it to get your target, we are not in that situation because we have the option of just going into deficit instead. However, this year's draft is so compromised that this year's draft picks might be worth a bit less than usual and so it could be worth considering. This year's draft picks were already less valuable because of the number of Academy and father-sons and they could be further devalued by the lack of exposed form at U18 level making it a bit more of a crapshoot.

In sum, I think if we have the option of drafting an extra high pick ahead of Campbell, we should do it. We should even think about trading up the order to achieve that result if necessary - although I wouldn't support going to the extremes GWS did to get a pick before Green - that was nuts.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

I wonder if the impending cut in list size will result in more trading or less?