2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[barry]

Barry, I think Ludwig may be proposing McKay instead of Daniher, so let’s not assume that.

I think you are wrong, Ludwig didnt mention it. You can lock Daniher in for next year. Any other trade needs to take that into consideration. Lets assume this.

[Melbourne_Blood]

Can’t see a Papley trade happening, not this season anyway. His trade value is sky high, and the buyer would need to pay overs on top of that, as he is contracted. As good as he is, I don’t think anyone will pay two first round picks for him, and I don’t think that adequately compensates us for what we are really losing if he goes. On top of being our best goal kicker of recent times , He’s a barometer , and he’s become in buddy’s absence our marquee player. Our excitement machine. People go to ( Well they would if they could in some cases ) or tune in to games to see him play.


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[Markwebbos]

Barry you might need to re-read Ludwig's posts, particularly the bit where he says "Long-term replacement for Buddy and can also take his turn in the ruck. We can forget about Joe Daniher."

[barry]

Barry you might need to re-read Ludwig's posts, particularly the bit where he says "Long-term replacement for Buddy and can also take his turn in the ruck. We can forget about Joe Daniher."

That was after your post smarty-pants.

lol.

Daniher is a lock. Starting hypotheticals without Daniher, is like saying the sky isnt blue.

[Ralph Dawg]

I dont think he could. Lets all assume we are getting Daniher next year because he's going to be dirt cheap and we'll risk the injury status.

Papley is a player you can build a forward line around. We should hold on to him at all costs.
Brisbane have built a forward line around Charlie Cameron, with so-so talls like Hipwood. You can get away without the best talls if they can make a contest, and you have elite small forwards. So between an aging buddy, and injury prone Reid and Daniher, at least one should be on the park each week.

I agree with your assessment on the Brisbane forward line. Their talls are Hipwood, McStay and Big O. None of them are likely to destroy you on any given day but Cameron, along with McCarthy, Zorko, Neale, McLuggage and co will once the ball is on the ground.

The days of the dominant FF kicking 100 a year are over. The flooding and intense pressure exerted by defensive lines means that teams with more unpredictable avenues to goal will reign. Hence, there is no way I would trade Papley to Carlton, nor would I sell the farm for a big forward, especially one so injury prone.

[Markwebbos]

Brisbane's forward line is its weakness and may deny them a premiership [to be revisited at the end of the season, if it ever ends]. As is Collingwoods.

I wouldn't be surprised, and I'd be delighted, if the AFL reduced the number of interchanges quite drastically to try and open up the game, and bring back the full forward.

List management must be a nightmare given the constant changes to the game. We've always valued endurance and they've cut quarters and made it much less of a factor this year.

[Ludwig]

Daniher is a lock. Starting hypotheticals without Daniher, is like saying the sky isn't blue.

As I write this the sky is gray and the rain is pouring down.

I do agree that it is highly probable that Daniher will want to get to the Swans, but the outcome is far from clear, especially with projected reductions in list sizes and TPP. His injury history is a huge deterrent as well.

All that aside, if one proposes a hypothetical, one can set the premises supporting that hypothetical, so nothing is truly a lock. You can set your our hypothetical which includes Daniher as a lock recruitment and we can examine that as well.

I'm against trading Papley. I was just exploring what would be a fair trade value if a trade should be on offer. A Papley trade and a fair value exchange has been discussed in the media this week; it's a hot topic and worth exploring.

[barry]

As I write this the sky is gray and the rain is pouring down.

I do agree that it is highly probable that Daniher will want to get to the Swans, but the outcome is far from clear, especially with projected reductions in list sizes and TPP. His injury history is a huge deterrent as well.

All that aside, if one proposes a hypothetical, one can set the premises supporting that hypothetical, so nothing is truly a lock. You can set your our hypothetical which includes Daniher as a lock recruitment and we can examine that as well.

I'm against trading Papley. I was just exploring what would be a fair trade value if a trade should be on offer. A Papley trade and a fair value exchange has been discussed in the media this week; it's a hot topic and worth exploring.

Fair enough. Personally, I'd take Daniher over McKay. McKay is only slighly better than McCartin, and we already have McCartin. Daniher is a gem. A risky gem, but a gem all the same.

[chalbilto]

Totally agree, these blokes are the core of the team.

+2

[Melbourne_Blood]

Fair enough. Personally, I'd take Daniher over McKay. McKay is only slighly better than McCartin, and we already have McCartin. Daniher is a gem. A risky gem, but a gem all the same.

He ‘Was’ a gem . An exceptionally risky gem. Who knows what he is anymore. Staring down the barrel of nearly three whole season out of the game. Would not touch unless it was a give away. And if that’s the case, someone else will pay him him more than we will.


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[bloodspirit]

I almost gave this its own thread. A great piece from Brandon Jack on where the club is just now, compared with previous years. Good to read articles by someone who knows the club, for a change.

Third time's a charm as young Bloods rebuild themselves again

Thanks for sharing this. Good article.

On another note, I just watched the interview with Dyl Stephens on the club website. I took two things from it:

* Dyl was refreshingly candid when he spoke: he talked about his frustrations, I believed him when he remarked on how much he is enjoying living in Sydney;

* he referred to himself as an inside mid and compared himself to Florent. He said while he's playing wing currently he's looking forward to the opportunity to play on all and show his skills. Exciting times ahead!

[Ruck'n'Roll]

I feel that might be a messy graph, and there are also questions about the location of members: how many are NSW/Sydney-based (I don't have those numbers), what proportion are able to get to the SCG, is that proportion of the total consistent over the years, how members are counted each year and so on...

What I can do instead is grab membership numbers and average home crowds from Wikipedia and plot that.

The shape is quite similar to my previous chart. And it looks like membership does track with crowds quite well, but then plateaus around 30000. Also there's a point where membership "takes off" but crowds don't follow, because not all members get to all games and venues have restrictions.

WIns Memberships Memberships and Glamour.jpg

Not sure why, but membership figures seem most affected by the presence of a Lockett or a Franklin (Glamour Full Forward), more so than by flags, and even less than by a win loss record.
Perhaps the changing nature of "Membership" has an even bigger effect.

Whereas the average H&A attendance seems more linked to the performance of the team as a whole / win loss record.

[707]

Nice movement at the top of the draft in the last two days, we now have pick 3 again, Freo are carrying a first round points deficit that pushes them behind us.

Pick 3 definitely gets us a potential top liner before we have to match Campbell, then hopefully Gulden. Still half a season to go though ...

[jono2707]

I'd be dangling that pick 3/4/whatever it is in front of teams big time to see what sort of quality player we could land with it.

[Markwebbos]

Papley and pick 3 to Carlton for Cripps?