2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Bangalore Swans]

Kane Cornes saying the Crows should go after Stephens.

I hope the Swans find a way to keep Amartey, McLean and Logan in support of Buddy and competing for that 2nd forward role.

I think you would let Reid go if it means you can keep any of the above three.

[giant]

I like Stephens and think he has the potential to become a very good player but must admit I am less confident of that now than when he arrived at the Swans......but can someone tell me why we picked him and not Serong, a life long Swans fan?

Goal of the Year: "You've got every right to be amazed"

Second goal.....that's sheer class.....and he slotted right into the Dockers senior line up from day one and has been consistently good ever since! I understand that this is all in the past and it's probably a question that only KB can answer but why was he not preferred over Stephens? That is a question that is now very relevant.....considering Stephens slow and frankly underwhelming development as a senior prospect and Serong's strong and consistent career start.

Don't even get me started. IMO, Stephens won't play 50 AFL games - seems a lovely kid but he's not up to it. It was a dreadful call from our recruiting team.

[Faunac8]

If you had to choose between Dylan Stephens and Hayden McLean who would you choose ?
My opinion for what it is worth is Hayden
Reason being that as per my previous posts he is big can take a mark and works hard

[joeykanga]

If you had to choose between Dylan Stephens and Hayden McLean who would you choose ?
My opinion for what it is worth is Hayden
Reason being that as per my previous posts he is big can take a mark and works hard

If you had to choose that’s the way I’d go also

[Ludwig]

I'm sick of the Saints getting our players. Don't they know how to pick someone at the draft and develop them? They're fast becoming another parasitic club.

There's something very deep and insightful in this brief post, in its terminology and reflection on different strategies used in navigating the AFL landscape.

The AFL environment has elements of egalitarianism, i.e. the salary cap and list sizes, as well as imbalances and offsets, like variations in player retention allowances, academies, player access zones, go home factors and a slew of others. Clubs that are challenged in one area need to find compensatory strategies to be competitive in the market.

The Swans have nurtured a strong culture and player environment to offset a higher cost of living in Sydney (and there are other factors as well). Clubs dealing with restless fan bases angered by years of failed strategies and poor performances may resort to excessive parasitisation, like Saint Kilda and Carlton. But these strategies have there downsides and are not particularly successful. Geelong is an interesting case, finding success in exploiting the aged player market.

The Swans have done their own parasitising in recruiting Franklin and Tippett, so we are not immune to this manner of list building. We have had plenty of discussion about the pros and cons of these particular recruitments. And we know the downsides of this strategy which dominated the Swans list management from 2013-2016, with flow over effects being felt to this day. As a result, we were forced to change our list management focus to the draft. There are benefits of having a strong group of young players to take the club into another period of success on the playing field, but parasitic clubs see the weaknesses here and like a hungry lion, look to pick off a calf that has strayed a bit too far from its mother (returning to the Serengeti theme).

List management is far more complex than the participants realise. Most clubs seem more reactive and desperate than thoughtful and strategic.

Our rapid rebuild and return to finals is testament to the success of the post 2016 list management strategy, but has come at the cost of a precarious salary cap situation and the shedding of several good players, with perhaps more to come.

I commented many times last year that our biggest problem going into 2021 would be player retention. Our on field success this year has drawn the attention of the football community and will make this task even harder.

There will be some tough decisions, as there were last year with letting go Aliir. This year we may have to let go one of my favourite players in George Hewett, who is having another excellent year. Maybe 2 of our 1st round picks over the past 4 years, in Ling and Stephens, will be off our list by November.

I think our midfield group is probably deeper than we can afford to carry. It's thanks to the better than expected progress of players like Warner and McInerney, as well as the academy bargains in Campbell and Gulden, swelling the ranks of quality midfielders. I won't go into the details here, but I count that we have 2 quality midfielders in excess of requirements, so it's reasonable for us to shed a couple.

Parker and Dawson are the most important ones to retain. We will have to live with whatever happens to the rest. Hopefully we can get compensated for our losses, like we did by getting Hickey as a result of losing Aliir.

Perhaps the lesson for RWO this year is that we will learn that we just can't sign every good free agent or good out of contract player whose name pops up on Cal Twomey's run sheet.

[goswannies]

I'm sick of the Saints getting our players. Don't they know how to pick someone at the draft and develop them? They're fast becoming another parasitic club.

I’m also pretty tired of the Swans Reserves (StKilda) picking at the Swans talent.

But: Cazaly. Lockett. Hall. Dunkley (a bit of a stretch, but he started there before his Tassie stint). At least we take their best … and make them better … we make them LEGENDS!

I think we’ve done ok

[goswannies]

Perhaps the lesson for RWO this year is that we will learn that we just can't sign every good free agent or good out of contract player whose name pops up on Cal Twomey's run sheet.

I think an AFL boss declared something similar to that once

[gloveski]

I’m also pretty tired of the Swans Reserves (StKilda) picking at the Swans talent.

But: Cazaly. Lockett. Hall. Dunkley (a bit of a stretch, but he started there before his Tassie stint). At least we take their best … and make them better … we make them LEGENDS!

I think we’ve done ok

O’Brien was another handy player that came from the aints


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[Mark26]

I’m also pretty tired of the Swans Reserves (StKilda) picking at the Swans talent.

But: Cazaly. Lockett. Hall. Dunkley (a bit of a stretch, but he started there before his Tassie stint). At least we take their best … and make them better … we make them LEGENDS!

I think we’ve done ok

I remember Hall coming over and knew that Plugger also came from the Saints. Didn't realise that Dunks was tied to them. He was close to my favourite player when I started following the Swans.

Memory can be selective and this is a timely reminder of who we've benefitted from grabbing through the recruitment process.

I still don't like the Saints.

[goswannies]

O’Brien was another handy player that came from the aints


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I thought about him, but limited my comment to absolute champions.

Jayson Daniels wasn’t bad for us either (though they took him back).

There have been a lot either way but we seem to have lost a lot: David Windbanks, Silvio Foschini, Paul Morwood (both ways), Fred Campbell, Scott Direen, Troy Gray, Neill, Adam Schneider, Sean Dempster.

But, Plugger, BBB & Roy (& Dunks) are pretty big wins for us I’d say

[Maltopia]

Speaking of St Kilda, in 1998, we drafted Nic Fosdike at 3, Ryan Fitzgerald at 4 and Jude Bolton at 8, but we neglected NSW product and three times All Australian Lenny Hayes who went to St Kilda at number 11. In hindsight it is easy to say we should have picked Hayes over say Fosdick or Fitzgerald, just as some are saying we should have picked Serong over Stephens.

Some also keep mentioning what a tragedy it would be if we lost Stephens a top 5 pick for around a pick 10 or second round draft pick, but the reality is, draft picks are part lottery, in that clubs can never get it 100% right.

There were some articles a couple of weeks ago about how Money Ball came to the AFL and that was driven by the data at the time that around 50% of high draft picks don't have long successful careers.

Look at our 2016 draft, we took Florent at 11 and Hayward at 21.

We could have goeten Jarrod Berry (17), Sam Powell-Pepper (18), Tim English (19), Shai Bolton (29), Tom Stewart!!! (40), Luke Ryan (66!).

Of course we have had success with late draft picks too, but I guess I am saying we shouldn't angst too much about a pick 5 that hasn't done as well yet as some of the picks that came after him. Even if he doesn't come good for us, that is just the win some/lose some that is inherent in drafting young players.

[707]

Nobody is paying Stephens $400k +

Carlton LOL!

[707]

I found the Lyon critique weird, not because he's wrong about the uncertainty at Collingwood - that was fair enough

But given what a laughing stock of rolling personnel, coaches and strategies Carlton has been, how he sees 'certainty' there, I'll never know.

He's not in the running for the Pies job so is tipping a bucket on them but is in the running for the Carlton job - IF they sack Teague

[707]

I'm sick of the Saints getting our players. Don't they know how to pick someone at the draft and develop them? They're fast becoming another parasitic club.

At last count they had 17 players from other clubs and still don't appear to be getting far. Will make a big play for King next year

[Goal Sneak]

He's not in the running for the Pies job so is tipping a bucket on them but is in the running for the Carlton job - IF they sack Teague

Yes, and endearing himself to Blues supporters as he does it