2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[MattW]

Trade Period officially starts today. Latest Fox Sports analysis article which doesn't reveal anything new. Late 2nd round compo pick for George, Dawson trade to Crows will go down to the wire and may involve third club, we'll be quiet trading players in due to our salary cap constraints but suggesting Ladhams might be a cheap target. Picks 12, 31, 67.

AFL trade news, rumours 2021: Trades state of play before the trade period, start date, every club’s draft picks, free agency, news

Third club: Collingwood (re pre-agent, Darcy Moore)?

AFL Trade Radio on Twitter: ""We can't forget the pre-agents... De Goey and Darcy Moore - do Collingwood cash in right now?"

- Mitch Cleary

#AFLTrade"

[waswan]

Ive always thought Sydney have had an eye on Degoey.

Would be a star if he got his sh8t together

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Time will tell - I just sense Campbell will be the leader of the two while Gulden the 'superstar' that gets the most notice. Doesn't matter who is who however, both should be fantastic players for us.

Time will indeed tell - prior to the start of the season the chatter was that Campbell was the superstar.
FWIW If he's anything like his brother I think Errol will be a great leader.

And regarding the need for a Dusty/Petracca/Bont clone - I've always believed we have one in Heeney. He's certainly being paid enough to suggest he should be that. And hopefully the belief that's he's needed up forward will decline as Logan developes, especially if Hayward's improvement continues and one of Amarty/McLean can take the opportunity presented by the retirement of Buddy and Sam in the next year.

[Thunder Shaker]

The Bulldogs have pick 17 as their only significant points-bearing pick. They will need a truckload of points to match an expected early bid on father-son prospect Darcy. They would need to acquire about 1200 points to match a bid at pick 3.

Suppose we get two second-round picks for Dawson from the Crows, and an end of second-round pick for Hewitt. That would give us five picks in the first 40 or so. We may be able to trade two of our later second-round picks to the Bulldogs for their future first-round pick, which would give them almost enough points. The Bulldogs could also give us their first-round pick (currently 17) and trade out next year's first round pick to another club for points.

I doubt such deals would happen on their own, but the Bulldogs could be a third club that would be involved in a trade for Dawson.

[Ludwig]

The Bulldogs have pick 17 as their only significant points-bearing pick. They will need a truckload of points to match an expected early bid on father-son prospect Darcy. They would need to acquire about 1200 points to match a bid at pick 3.

Suppose we get two second-round picks for Dawson from the Crows, and an end of second-round pick for Hewitt. That would give us five picks in the first 40 or so. We may be able to trade two of our later second-round picks to the Bulldogs for their future first-round pick, which would give them almost enough points. The Bulldogs could also give us their first-round pick (currently 17) and trade out next year's first round pick to another club for points.

I doubt such deals would happen on their own, but the Bulldogs could be a third club that would be involved in a trade for Dawson.

I've run through some of the numbers on your proposal and I think it's very doable. In fact, I think it could just about make the deal okay for all parties involved.

I will use the current draft pick numbers unless otherwise stated, although we know that most picks will move down to compensate for the early Daicos and Darcy matched bids.

Adelaide keep their pick 4, but give pick 23 to the Swans, and picks 37, 59 and 63 to WB.
The Swans give assumed end of 2nd round compo pick (around pick 40) and pick 67 to WB.
WB give Swans pick 17.

As a result,

• WB will add around 250 points to help pay for Sam Darcy. They will have to get additional points from trades for Lapinski and somewhere else.
• Adelaide will gain Dawson for picks 23, 37, 59 and 63. Looks like a bargain, but in points it will add up to around a pick 10 after adjustments.
• The Swans lose Dawson and Hewett and pick 67 and get picks 17 and 23, which will blow out to at least 19 and 25. This would net out to around a pick 7 for both Dawson and Hewett, but 19 and 25 are better for us than a pick 7 in this draft.

Most of us would think Dawson alone is worth a pick 7, but we aren't in a great bargaining position and are letting go of Hewett, so it would be a deal I would be happy with given the circumstances.

So we would go into the draft with adjusted picks 14, 19, 25 and 33. I'm sure we could trade one of the picks for a 2022 pick if we want to.

[Markwebbos]

I've run through some of the numbers on your proposal and I think it's very doable. In fact, I think it could just about make the deal okay for all parties involved.

I will use the current draft pick numbers unless otherwise stated, although we know that most picks will move down to compensate for the early Daicos and Darcy matched bids.

Adelaide keep their pick 4, but give pick 23 to the Swans, and picks 37, 59 and 63 to WB.
The Swans give assumed end of 2nd round compo pick (around pick 40) and pick 67 to WB.
WB give Swans pick 17.

As a result,

• WB will add around 250 points to help pay for Sam Darcy. They will have to get additional points from trades for Lapinski and somewhere else.
• Adelaide will gain Dawson for picks 23, 37, 59 and 63. Looks like a bargain, but in points it will add up to around a pick 10 after adjustments.
• The Swans lose Dawson and Hewett and pick 67 and get picks 17 and 23, which will blow out to at least 19 and 25. This would net out to around a pick 7 for both Dawson and Hewett, but 19 and 25 are better for us than a pick 7 in this draft.

Most of us would think Dawson alone is worth a pick 7, but we aren't in a great bargaining position and are letting go of Hewett, so it would be a deal I would be happy with given the circumstances.

So we would go into the draft with adjusted picks 14, 19, 25 and 33. I'm sure we could trade one of the picks for a 2022 pick if we want to.

Make it so! That would be an excellent outcome.

[Aprilbr]

Impressive analysis, Ludwig! The Club should give you a role as " List Development Strategist". You should be able to undertake that role successfully in Thailand using remote working techniques.

[Ludwig]

Impressive analysis, Ludwig! The Club should give you a role as " List Development Strategist". You should be able to undertake that role successfully in Thailand using remote working techniques.

Tom Harley already has my RWO postings on Push Notification.

It's a big problem that our soft cap is stretched even more than the TPP. We can only afford to have Longmire work 3 days a week.

[Aprilbr]

I would assume that you would take a "below market" deal out of Club loyalty to remain a Swan, Ludwig? Besides the cost of living in Chiang Mai would be a fraction of that in Sydney.

[Markwebbos]

The Mongrel Punt has this to say about #theDawsonBetrayal. I think it will be music to the ears of some RWOers.

Changing Places - Good Move? Bad Move? - The Mongrel Punt

“One of the many infuriatingly amateurish “going home” moves … in many respects, it is a step backward from Dawson. But probably a significant step up in wages.”

[sharp9]

I absolutely cannot believe that anyone here thinks that Dawson is not worth pick 4. Seriously I would be asking for this year AND next year. He is an incredible player…2 first round picks for Shiel and Kelly plus many others I’m sure. Dawson is a better prospect than those guys. Also surely Carlton need salary cap relief. We’ll take Charlie Curnow for Georgie

[Markwebbos]

I absolutely cannot believe that anyone here thinks that Dawson is not worth pick 4. Seriously I would be asking for this year AND next year. He is an incredible player…2 first round picks for Shiel and Kelly plus many others I’m sure. Dawson is a better prospect than those guys. Also surely Carlton need salary cap relief. We’ll take Charlie Curnow for Georgie

If they really need our help we could take Walsh off their hands too.

[waswan]

I wonder if George is still a consideration.

Money cant be an issue and unless we are into All Aus calibre or a tall surely keeping George is a no brainer. Same recruitment team that gave Taylor 3 yrs.

Id be p8ssed to get rid of George for a fringe player like Constable etc.

450k for 20+ possessions is a bargain

[AB Swannie]

I wonder if George is still a consideration.

Money cant be an issue and unless we are into All Aus calibre or a tall surely keeping George is a no brainer. Same recruitment team that gave Taylor 3 yrs.

Id be p8ssed to get rid of George for a fringe player like Constable etc.

450k for 20+ possessions is a bargain

Due to Covid reductions, the average salary for a primary listed player was $259651 over the passed two seasons. Based on this 450k is not a bargain. 450k would have to be ranked about 10th highest paid player. I like George but this is not value.

[Auntie.Gerald]

1.bud
2.parker
3.heeney
4.paps
5.rampe
6.lloyd
7.mills
8.blakey
9.hewett?
10.Hickey?