2025 List Management

[imuninformedtwo]

These are the latest ESPN draft rankings.

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Depth emerging? The top 30 prospects for July - ESPN https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-depth-quality

They have King slipping a couple of places to 14 and Carmichael rising to 22. Which I guess means that there's a couple of main options. Firstly, trade out our first round pick, to get some more points and hopefully ensure that we get both King and Carmichael. Or keep that pick and take a currently higher ranked player. For instance, Aidan Schubert is rated around about our first pick at 11. From what I've seen of him, he's an impressive, strong marking, straight kicking KPF. So, if we decide that we need one of those, then we might just take one of King or Carmichael with our second round pick, and with the changes to the points system, probably going into a bit of deficit, as well. Of course, there's always the possibility, of trading a player for points prior to the draft

This year’s draft is regarded as a stinker. I saw Cal Twomey said any of the top eight from the last two years would be a clear number one this year.

That said, I’d keep our first pick and either use it in the draft for a clear target, or use it to target a trade.

We have a clear enough line of sight on our Academy prospects for the next two years to know how we might be able to use future picks to cover what we need this year. Alternatively, a player gets shopped or leaves to get us extra points as you say. I imagine there will be clubs happy to trade out of the second and third round of this years draft, particularly if they have a sequence of higher picks (a la Essendon, Richmond or West Coast)

[dejavoodoo44]

This year’s draft is regarded as a stinker. I saw Cal Twomey said any of the top eight from the last two years would be a clear number one this year.

That said, I’d keep our first pick and either use it in the draft for a clear target, or use it to target a trade.

We have a clear enough line of sight on our Academy prospects for the next two years to know how we might be able to use future picks to cover what we need this year. Alternatively, a player gets shopped or leaves to get us extra points as you say. I imagine there will be clubs happy to trade out of the second and third round of this years draft, particularly if they have a sequence of higher picks (a la Essendon, Richmond or West Coast)

Yes, I find it strange how variable draft cohorts can be. You'd assume that coaching standards haven't dropped off markedly, or that this year's kids are somehow lacking in support. Though there's possibly some sort of case to be made, that with many households coming under financial pressure, then maybe parents aren't able to devote as much time to their kids sport? Maybe covid had something to do with it? Though I'm not sure if missing a season's football when you're 13 or 14, would be significantly different to missing a year when you're 15 or 16? I suspect that it's more likely down to natural human variation.

And personally, I wouldn't really like to go into deficit, as I think we have some genuine prospects coming through. Though a couple of them have question marks. McCartney could develop into an excellent power forward, but obviously North would like to lure him as a father/son. McGroder could develop into the most athletic player in the competition, but might choose athletics. Hopefully, sitting out the most recent academy game in a moon boot, won't influence his decision. Apart from that, I really like the Jenkin twins. And if you take one, I feel like you should take both. Then there's others with a chance, like Beavis and Blackwell-Smith.

Then going to the next cohort, there's also some talent coming through. Most notably; Cairns, who could develop into a midfield bull, and McLennan, who when I was watching him live the other day, seemed to be playing the old Errol role of "Sure, you just run wherever you like".

[dejavoodoo44]

Genuine questions do we need another key fwd or is a combination of Buller, Macdonald, Amartey and Mclean (not playing all four, just 2/3 each week) good enough ?

Which would allow us to target a key defender or use our first-round pick on the best talent available.

I think that the big mystery there is McDonald. With just one VFL game this year, it's hard to tell if he's going to develop into the elite forward that we're hoping for. If he does, then that group is probably fine. Especially if McCartney has a strong final academy season and then decides to join us. But if there's a fair bit of doubt, then I think Schubert this year could be tempting?

[imuninformedtwo]

Yes, I find it strange how variable draft cohorts can be. You'd assume that coaching standards haven't dropped off markedly, or that this year's kids are somehow lacking in support. Though there's possibly there's some sort of case to be made, that with many households coming under financial pressure, then maybe parents aren't able to devote as much time to their kids sport? Maybe covid had something to do with it? Though I'm not sure if missing a season's football when you're 13 or 14, would be significantly different to missing a year when you're 15 or 16? I suspect that it's more likely down to natural human variation.
".

I think there is a dumb luck element to it. The 2014 draft where we were lucky enough to get Isaac was very average. We actually did very well to get Ollie and Wilbur given the 2016 draft was one of the great stinkers of all time. In a way, we’re lucky to have what we have this year. We know what King is and what we will need to work on.

Carmichael is also timely. He might lack pure leg speed, but someone who can play, defend and distribute down back is a plus with Lloyd no longer down there and near the end of his career, Harry is playing well but is 31 and Ollie has gone off. Long term, you’d only lock in Wicks down there right now. I guess there is Roberts but I find him unconvincing at the moment, particularly as a defender.

My other reason for liking him is players that improve rapidly in their draft year tend on balance to kick on. Whereas someone who stagnates or declines like Chamberlain worries me greatly.

[UUaswan]

I think that the big mystery there is McDonald. With just one VFL game this year, it's hard to tell if he's going to develop into the elite forward that we're hoping for. If he does, then that group is probably fine. Especially if McCartney has a strong final academy season and then decides to join us. But if there's a fair bit of doubt, then I think Schubert this year could be tempting?

Mcdonald is a lot less of an unknown than any of the others

He will be fine if he gets his ankle right.

Amartey is the worry with injury going forward

[dejavoodoo44]

I think there is a dumb luck element to it. The 2014 draft where we were lucky enough to get Isaac was very average. We actually did very well to get Ollie and Wilbur given the 2016 draft was one of the great stinkers of all time. In a way, we’re lucky to have what we have this year. We know what King is and what we will need to work on.

Carmichael is also timely. He might lack pure leg speed, but someone who can play, defend and distribute down back is a plus with Lloyd no longer down there and near the end of his career, Harry is playing well but is 31 and Ollie has gone off. Long term, you’d only lock in Wicks down there right now. I guess there is Roberts but I find him unconvincing at the moment, particularly as a defender.

My other reason for liking him is players that improve rapidly in their draft year tend on balance to kick on. Whereas someone who stagnates or declines like Chamberlain worries me greatly.

Yeah, I'm increasingly liking Carmichael. I know I bang on about it a fair bit, but, I really do value players who see the game well. That is, they appear to have the ability to process all the available options quicker than other players. I think Carmichael has that. He puts himself in good positions. He finds space in traffic. And almost always, his disposals are to the advantage of his team mates.

[crackedactor 01]

Yeah, I'm increasingly liking Carmichael. I know I bang on about it a fair bit, but, I really do value players who see the game well. That is, they appear to have the ability to process all the available options quicker than other players. I think Carmichael has that. He puts himself in good positions. He finds space in traffic. And almost always, his disposals are to the advantage of his team mates.

Surprised everyone is forgetting about McNamara. Played VFL yesterday and though he did not have many touches I liked the way he moved and kicked a nice goal. Seems quite athletic as well.

[dejavoodoo44]

Surprised everyone is forgetting about McNamara. Played VFL yesterday and though he did not have many touches I liked the way he moved and kicked a nice goal. Seems quite athletic as well.

I'm also hoping that he gets at least a rookie spot. Rookie Me reckoned that he was probably BOG for the Allies in their final game. Which should see him rise up a few draft boards. Especially since he spent plenty of time in the forward line, when he's hardly played there for the academy. Personally, I'd like to see him given a chance to develop into a bash and crash, inside mid.

[BRS328]

Genuine questions do we need another key fwd or is a combination of Buller, Macdonald, Amartey and Mclean (not playing all four, just 2/3 each week) good enough ?

Which would allow us to target a key defender or use our first-round pick on the best talent available.

My opinion yes. Far from convinced McLean is a genuine forward, he is OK in the support second ruck role but struggles to get to contests playing as a forward. I am confident McDonald will turn out fine, he is a very smart footballer. Armartey has talent, and when he is playing well we generally win, but as we know appears to be injury prone.
Buller is interesting, I had personally written him off, but I like what I have seen in recent games. He has size (199cm compared to McLean 197cm), and has good hands and speed in the contest, and is quite mobile for a big man. He is also younger, having recently turned 24.
I also recall that we had a key forward/ ruckman of similar size and age a few years ago who lacked opportunities, and is now doing a reasonable job at Collingwood. We just have to accept the fact that big players take longer to develop

Having said all that, if there is a key forward out there we should definitely go for it, and I get the impression that the club is thinking in this direction.

[BRS328]

Makes sense to me wiith the recruitments of the general defenders, considering veterans Rampe, Lloyd & Cunningham are nearing the end & need to transition our backline. Francis & Hamling are stop gap measures, with the latter yet to play and as KPF in the Ressies.

Riak Andrew, Patrick Snell & Will Edwards as our up & coming KPDs.

Quesion remains whether if all will cut it as senior players.

Agree with you that Francis is a stop gap measure, but I have been very impressed with Hamling as a defender in recent weeks. He was very good against the tall Freo forwards a few weeks ago, and equally impressive last Saturday against North. If forced to make a decision at the end of the year I would offer Hamling an extra year in preference t Francis

[BFG]

Watchers are saying yesterday's Vic Metro/VicCountry game was underwhelming with not much enthusiasm for what was on show. Remember that this group is always the core cohort of any draft.

This year there is little clarity on draft order and also some suggestions that the best of this years players would barely make it into the 2024 draft top 10. Lack of top end talent is one thing but shallowness of draftable players is the other with the likely hood there won't be as many players taken after 71 were selected last draft. That hopefully might help some of our fringe academy players to slip through to the Rookie draft where they can be pre selections. Twomey should be putting out a top 30 soon and he is a fairly good barometer. Interesting to see where he has our better prospects.

It is also severely compromised with possibly as many as nine of the top 25 already tied to clubs, luckily we could have a couple. It really is looking unlikely that a club could rebuild much through this years draft, whereas Richmond made off like thieves with their massive 2024 super draft haul.

This draft may also be further compromised with high compo picks handed out to WCE for Oscar Allen and Carlton for TDK. We of course have to bear the brunt of the first year of the drastically reduced points value scale. No getting a Nick Daicos, JUH, Sam Darcy, Ashcroft brothers or GC four first rounders for a bag of junk picks :-(

A lot of questions for our team to grapple with, the need and draftability of four or five of our academy players, whether we think we can get a pick in before needing to match, whether we are active in the trade period and therefore have a stronger or weaker draft hand.

Only ten weeks to trade period!

[UUaswan]

Agree with you that Francis is a stop gap measure, but I have been very impressed with Hamling as a defender in recent weeks. He was very good against the tall Freo forwards a few weeks ago, and equally impressive last Saturday against North. If forced to make a decision at the end of the year I would offer Hamling an extra year in preference t Francis

Hamling a better stopper, Francis a stop gap, either end of the ground.

Next year we should get our Academy Kids, Chase Lever and see if Snell, Edwardes and Riak can play.

Love Ramps but he won't play 12 games next year, Lloyd will stay but should be behind others.

[BRS328]

Hamling a better stopper, Francis a stop gap, either end of the ground.

Next year we should get our Academy Kids, Chase Lever and see if Snell, Edwardes and Riak can play.

Love Ramps but he won't play 12 games next year, Lloyd will stay but should be behind others.

While I agree with you about blooding the players you have mentioned, they will take time to develop and will be used sparingly, particularly the taller players who generally take 3 to 4 seasons to develop physically and adjust to the pace of the game.
Ramps, Lloyd, Cunningham etc still have a role to play in the process

[UUaswan]

While I agree with you about blooding the players you have mentioned, they will take time to develop and will be used sparingly, particularly the taller players who generally take 3 to 4 seasons to develop physically and adjust to the pace of the game.
Ramps, Lloyd, Cunningham etc still have a role to play in the process

Agree they take time but we have a few in waiting.

Ramps is 36 next year, keep him at the club but not as a player.

Lloyd can go around again at 32/33 but Ollie, Hannily, Mitchell, Cleary, Corey, Dattoli, Bice should be in front of him, plus Paps.

No issue with Cunningham he does his role as a small stopper, has slotted behind Wicks but still has a role until someone takes it

Fox was ahead of all of them and hasn't played a game, that's the risk you take with older players.

History suggests
Kennedy, 11 games, 34yrs old
Mcviegh,6 games, 34 yrs old
Jack, 8 games, 32 yrs old
Okeefe, 4 games, 33 yrs old
Buddy,13 games, 36 yrs old
Taylor Adams, 4 games, 31 yrs old
Parker 10 games, 31 yrs old*

[UUaswan]

Logan gone from 5-6 to 1-2 weeks ?