2017 trading, drafting, list management

[Boddo]

Some are talking as if Aliir has somehow gone off the rails and has taken several steps backwards. But this is not the case. He is the player we saw from 2016, but has had a few setbacks due to injury and being closed out of selection at the wrong time. These doubters should go and watch the NEAFL game against NT thunder played in Darwin to see what Aliir can do. He is not going to get traded and if he gets a decent run with injury next year he will be in our starting senior side. He's been played in different positions and has certainly made his share of blunders on the field this year, but I'm sure that things will be back on course next year.

I don't know what the trade market would be regarding Lever and Aliir. I certainly rate Lever higher. And if we tried trading Aliir this year we would get unders due to his lack of senior games. The trade I would make is not how the market would value the trade. I think those inside the club realise Aliir's value and won't be contemplating any moves at this time.

I may disagree with MP on Aliir, but do agree with him that we are likely to have a quiet period both at the trade table and the draft. There is no reason to do anything dramatic with so many promising young players waiting to crack into a side that is not very old.

The true fullback position now with Reg will eventually go to either Melican or Maibaum. The setups are different these days than they were a couple of decades ago and defences tend to be more flexible with a defensive group of talls playing on an offensive group of talls with lots of switching going on. We are probably the most 1 on 1 matching up group in the league, perhaps because Reg is so much better against the those big powerful forwards than our next best defender. There's usually a defender who takes the deepest forward, a job most often assigned to Reg for us. Once Reg retires our defenders will all have good pace and it's not clear how things will unfold with such young emerging group as well as the uncertainties regarding AJ.

He has had a poor year in anyone's language. He has had the occasional glimpse of what he did last year. We'd get what he's worth. He's worth a 2nd rounder at best. Look I'm not trying to sh...t on Aliir but it's been a drop in form from last year. Your only worth what you put out n it hasn't been great. I watched the NT game several times n it was good but wouldn't call it great. His whole year was a bit meh for me. His one on one defensive work needs to improve to last in AFL now. He'd get killed against Adelaide or Richmond in finals on current form. The setups are not just different from a couple of decades ago they're different from 5 years ago so I have no idea why your saying that unless your implying we are still living in 1997 and haven't watched a game since the crows took out the premiership. He needs to work on that one on one game a lot, working his man over one on one n then become that 3rd tall sagging off to help n then provide that run off hb which he can be very good at and limit his turnovers. Is he tradable? Of course he is. The club would take that Brander trade that MG mentioned in a heartbeat. Everyone is tradable at the right price. I'd prefer he stayed n turned it around n released Mills to the midfield. He's Taylor made for that 3rd up hb running role. I haven't changed my mind about him since we talked earlier in the year about him. And if he doesn't turn it around next year he'll be gone n we'll get stuff all for him. I need to see more than one year of Maibaum to say if he'll be anyone's replacement. Melican needs to have that follow up year of good form. He's penciled in to play but it doesn't mean he's there permanently n it could easily be the same as Aliir.

[longmile]

Interest in Trengrove?

[dejavoodoo44]

Interest in Trengrove?

Yes, I did wonder about that? On the plus side, he obviously has skills, his persistence in coming back showed strength of character and apparently he does have leadership qualities.
On the other hand, we would have to do a thorough medical assessment, to work out if there's any chronic damage to his foot and if so, how much does that hinder his athletic ability.
If the answer is not much, then he probably would be worth a go, as a cheap depth option. Also, asking the opinion of Roosy would probably be a good idea.

[Boddo]

Interest in Trengrove?

No. Injuries have ruined his career and Neeld. Lost a lot of his pace, can't jump. Will be a good state level player. Feel sorry for the bloke, thrown to the wolves n never had a proper grounding. Put him in Sydney's system when drafted with our development n we'd be talking top 5 Brownlow. Pass

- - - Updated - - -

Yes, I did wonder about that? On the plus side, he obviously has skills, his persistence in coming back showed strength of character and apparently he does have leadership qualities.
On the other hand, we would have to do a thorough medical assessment, to work out if there's any chronic damage to his foot and if so, how much does that hinder his athletic ability.
If the answer is not much, then he probably would be worth a go, as a cheap depth option. Also, asking the opinion of Roosy would probably be a good idea.

He's had 2 years of injury free footy. His athletic ability is gone.

[bloodspirit]

The depth chart: How is your club placed? - M.afl.com.au

Recruiting guru Kinnear Beatson has built a well-rounded Sydney list but there's no doubt another key defender would help, with Grundy in the twilight of his career and Rampe, Melican and Aliir slightly undersized. Mills should slide into the midfield alongside Heeney to add even more grunt next year, while some more midfield pace could be addressed at the draft again. - Adam Curley

I always think that Adam Curley knows less about our list than most of us do.

In particular I am confused about what Curley writes about our key defenders and needing a Reg replacement. Why is Rampe listed as a key defender but not AJ or Maibaum? Also, in saying we still need a Reg replacement, all of those players (except for Rampe) are at least as tall as Reg. I guess the issue is that none of them are as solid and strong at holding their ground under the ball coming in. But Melican may well get there - by the time Reg retires he could be well on his way. Ditto Maibaum. So if we're recruiting a key defender it would need to be a mature body or a standout to be an upgrade on what we've got waiting in the wings already.

Another quibble is that Murray is listed as a forward but has been playing down back for some time. I suspect that Curley is not up to speed with what is happening in the reserves - but he should be if he is writing this article.

*******

In general I agree with those who have said that we will have a relatively quiet trade and draft season. However I will be very surprised if we only pick two new players at the National Draft. I reckon they'll want to draft 3 or more likely 4 new players in the ND and they will clear space on the roster for them one way or another. I really hope they don't de-list Murray. Or, at least if they do, they re-rookie him at the rookie draft. At this point I have him in front of COR who I also like.

[bloodspirit]

Here's some external validation that our list is brimming with young talent: Young Swans make 22under22 team - sydneyswans.com.au.

We have three players in the 22under22: Heeney, Mills & Papley. And that 22under22 is a seriously strong team. I reckon it might be good enough to win the flag if it took the field. Great to see Papley get that level of recognition alongside: Martin, Billings, Wines and Fantasia.

In addition, the players have voted Will Hayward as the 4th best of all first year players! Given there were 20 selected ahead of him at the 2016 ND that is massive and a huge coup for our recruiting staff. It is also slightly surprising given that he didn't get his Rising Star nomination until Round 23. But well deserved! I think he is an absolute star and only his youth and light frame is keeping him out of the finals.

Our list is scary good when you consider that Hayward, Florent and Tippo are outside our current best 22 and that's before you get to Dawson and Aliir and then depth players like Harry C, Robbo, Foote, Laidler, Marsh and the other younger talent. We will cut some deadwood in the off-season and then further bolster our list from the draft. At least our first round pick should net a player of serious quality and we have a great record with our later picks too.

[Jeynez]

Plus there's Jones as well, who is pretty unlucky not to at least make the bench in the 22under22 team

[bloodspirit]

Plus there's Jones as well, who is pretty unlucky not to at least make the bench in the 22under22 team

Jones doesn't qualify because he turned 22 in March. If he'd had this season last year he'd have been in with a show - but then again Heeney only made the bench (apparently has the third best rating of all our players this year according to Champion Data) so maybe he wouldn't have. I tell you, it's a seriously strong team.

[Boddo]

I always think that Adam Curley knows less about our list than most of us do. Here's the rest of what he wrote:
...

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-09-13/the-depth-chart-how-is-your-club-placed

Like most of the Vic media clueless when it comes to the structure n how the list was built. You'd get more information from the hobos that hang around garbage dumps.

Disagree on the 4 picks. If it was next year I'd agree but it's a pretty shallow draft so it'll probably be 3 but wouldn't surprise me if it was 2 picks after the Melican upgrade. They'll be nothing at pick 4, which is pick 72.

[bloodspirit]

I take your point about them not selecting at pick 72. Perhaps only if they trade up the order like last year then. I'll still be surprised if they only take 2 but stranger things have happened.

[Boddo]

I take your point about them not selecting at pick 72. Perhaps only if they trade up the order like last year then. I'll still be surprised if they only take 2 but stranger things have happened.

Normally I'd be surprised about only 2 picks but there's not much after the 2nd round. It's just an abnormally shallow draft. Apart from Aliir there's no1 that's tradable that'll bring a highish pick and even he'd bring no higher than a late 2nd rounder at best. Tippet won't unless we pay the majority of his contract which I'd doubt they would. The rest are depth players n they'll bring not much at all.

[Blood Fever]

I always think that Adam Curley knows less about our list than most of us do. Here's the rest of what he wrote:

...

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-09-13/the-depth-chart-how-is-your-club-placed

Don't read the so called experts anymore. People on this forum are far better informed. Not sure who believes these experts nowadays. If you do, you are misinformed.

[WauchopeAnalyst]

How about the 'Rock'?

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[crackedactor]

All I can say is that if I was the Swans list manager and if Freo inquired about Aliir, and they have a stated policy of trying to get as many WA boys home as they can, then my response would be "He is a required player and we don't wish to trade him but if you want to have a conversation that includes Pick 5 in this year's draft then come back to us"

Likewise I think we would probably listen to any offer re Tippett that includes $500,000 a year coming off our wages bill for the next three years but we would otherwise prefer to keep him.

The other guys mentioned as tradeable (Rose, Robbo, Marsh) have neither wage space or trade currency so I expect they'll stay for a year as they are cheap and good depth. Robbo is a local boy, seems a coaches favourite and is yet to get a decent run at it injury wise so I don't think he'd be let go unless a club offer something silly. Likewise I quite rate Marsh as depth and if Smith was to get injured then I'd feel quite confident having Swampy come into the team though I cannot help but wonder if they'd be tempted to play Florent down there for a bit as he is a terrier and very quick. Rose has trade bait written all over him, I think he has been disappointing this year at the NEAFL level but clubs may have a nibble at him as he has a bit about him and is the least likely of those guys to get a game.

Whilst I still think it's most likely we'll be dead quiet and just go three out (Talia, BJ and Tyrone) and Melican plus R1 and R2 we really like to take three at the ND though as a rule so a little activity would not surprise even if it is upgrading our third rounder to the mid 40s.

The situation with our defensive stocks will become clear as 2018 unfolds. Will AJ make it back as a senior AFL player? (doubt it from what I have seen but hope I am wrong there). Likewise Aliir? (I personally think he is too loose as a FB or CHB so the main issue is where do we fit him in our structure) Is Maibaum senior ready? (I think the answer will be yes but he hasn't really stood out has he) and also if Reg retires or not in 2018? (50/50 at this stage I'd say). Defenders are a highly tradeable commodity, if we do need an extra KPD at the end of next year I have no doubt a suitable trade will present itself but I hope we can fill our requirements from within the squad of possible.

As I've said before I like Aliir but at AFL level I think he'll get found out at as a KPD. I would love to see him play a rebounding intercept marking 7th man in defence role permanently with good licence to run up the ground as required. I think with greater freedom he could become a unique player in that role but I question if our coaching staff would go for that given their manic obsession with pressure and contested footy (which I also like)

Think a few people are being a bit harsh on AJ. I noticed a good chase and run down of a Brisbane player in the GF. It's unfair not to give AJ a go without having a solid pre season. Like to see him have another year at the Swans before deciding.


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[707]

Just the two picks and Melican upgraded. If we have players go for more opportunity it will be for a pick upgrade like the Biggs case.