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I think we'll be pretty boring at the table this year but if there was a chance to somehow get pick 5 from Fremantle then that would be enough to secure Brander who would be worth pursuing. Anything higher would not be enough as I think the Pies would take him at 6. Even if we did miss him then we'd be able to draft a quality player like a Fogarty but at this stage I would think pick 5 should be enough. I suppose there would always be a risk that if Kelly went to North then Pick 4 would almost certainly move to GWS who may well be tempted to draft him at 4..
The only possible way I could see this happening would be if Freo made an inquiry re Aliir as has been murmured. If so then perhaps we could offer up our first and second rounder with Aliir for their fifth pick. That would value Aliir at 351 points if win the flag or 154 points if we lose the Prelim so we'd want a bit back I'd say. Freo get a first and second rounder along with a required player and we get the best KPP in the draft who we can hopefully groom next year to be senior ready when Reg retires.
It's a totally hypothetical situation, and one sure to gain Ludwig's ire, but only an outcome like that would tempt us.Last edited by Mug Punter; 12 September 2017, 08:22 PM.Comment
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It's such a ridiculous hypothetical that it really wasn't worth commenting, but here I am nonetheless. I wouldn't even trade Aliir straight up for Brander, and unproven commodity, so why would anyone throw in our 1st two draft picks to boot? The best we could hope for is that Brander would turn into an Aliir.
Just for the sake of argument, would anyone trade the 2014 #1 pick, Patty McCartin, for Aliir, given what we've seen so far? Or even Caleb Marchbank, who was pick #6 and has been okay? On the other hand, I would trade Aliir for Jake Lever (pick #14) and definitely throw in our 2nd rounder or even perhaps our first. The draft is a bit of a lottery, especially when it comes to KPPs. No KPP in this year's draft has shown the form of McCartin did in 2014. Just something to think about.Last edited by Ludwig; 12 September 2017, 09:10 PM.Comment
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Problem is Aliir is not a KPD. And I doubt he will ever replace Grundy. He is 3rd tall defender at best. And he is not going to displace Rampe from that role. You yourself have suggested he play forward, ruck or wing to get him into the team.
When it cones to trading him, it depends on which Aliir we are talking about trading. The 2016 version or 2017 reserves version. I'd keep the 2016 version, but I'd trade the 2017 version for a KPD.Comment
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I'd do all those trades and I'm pretty sure the club would to. Every single one of those trades have a lot more upside than Aliir has ATM. Your talking like your trading 2016 Aliir the rebounding backman but you wouldn't you'd be trading Aliir the 2017 fringe player. And that's the point with the Brander trade it's an upgrade of pick 17, 35 & a fringe player for the number 5 pick. Every club would drop Aliir in a heartbeat for a straight swap for Brander. Aliir doesn't make your hypothetical Lever trade happen, he's the steak knives. If you seriously think you'd get Lever for Aliir n a 2nd rounder your living with the pixies. You'd be paying the 1st & 2nd & Aliir. That's pick 17,35 & Aliir the fringe player. Marchbank we'd be throwing something in to get the deal done, he's part of Carltons future. St Kilda would laugh in our face if we offered Aliir up for McCartin. You seriously overate Aliir way to much on his form from last year. Your trading a 3rd up backman who struggles to defend one on one who can't make the side. Sides want best 22 finals players at his age. Not players on the fringe of a finals sides.Comment
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Some are talking as if Aliir has somehow gone off the rails and has taken several steps backwards. But this is not the case. He is the player we saw from 2016, but has had a few setbacks due to injury and being closed out of selection at the wrong time. These doubters should go and watch the NEAFL game against NT thunder played in Darwin to see what Aliir can do. He is not going to get traded and if he gets a decent run with injury next year he will be in our starting senior side. He's been played in different positions and has certainly made his share of blunders on the field this year, but I'm sure that things will be back on course next year.
I don't know what the trade market would be regarding Lever and Aliir. I certainly rate Lever higher. And if we tried trading Aliir this year we would get unders due to his lack of senior games. The trade I would make is not how the market would value the trade. I think those inside the club realise Aliir's value and won't be contemplating any moves at this time.
I may disagree with MP on Aliir, but do agree with him that we are likely to have a quiet period both at the trade table and the draft. There is no reason to do anything dramatic with so many promising young players waiting to crack into a side that is not very old.
The true fullback position now with Reg will eventually go to either Melican or Maibaum. The setups are different these days than they were a couple of decades ago and defences tend to be more flexible with a defensive group of talls playing on an offensive group of talls with lots of switching going on. We are probably the most 1 on 1 matching up group in the league, perhaps because Reg is so much better against the those big powerful forwards than our next best defender. There's usually a defender who takes the deepest forward, a job most often assigned to Reg for us. Once Reg retires our defenders will all have good pace and it's not clear how things will unfold with such young emerging group as well as the uncertainties regarding AJ.Last edited by Ludwig; 12 September 2017, 11:44 PM.Comment
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All I can say is that if I was the Swans list manager and if Freo inquired about Aliir, and they have a stated policy of trying to get as many WA boys home as they can, then my response would be "He is a required player and we don't wish to trade him but if you want to have a conversation that includes Pick 5 in this year's draft then come back to us"
Likewise I think we would probably listen to any offer re Tippett that includes $500,000 a year coming off our wages bill for the next three years but we would otherwise prefer to keep him.
The other guys mentioned as tradeable (Rose, Robbo, Marsh) have neither wage space or trade currency so I expect they'll stay for a year as they are cheap and good depth. Robbo is a local boy, seems a coaches favourite and is yet to get a decent run at it injury wise so I don't think he'd be let go unless a club offer something silly. Likewise I quite rate Marsh as depth and if Smith was to get injured then I'd feel quite confident having Swampy come into the team though I cannot help but wonder if they'd be tempted to play Florent down there for a bit as he is a terrier and very quick. Rose has trade bait written all over him, I think he has been disappointing this year at the NEAFL level but clubs may have a nibble at him as he has a bit about him and is the least likely of those guys to get a game.
Whilst I still think it's most likely we'll be dead quiet and just go three out (Talia, BJ and Tyrone) and Melican plus R1 and R2 we really like to take three at the ND though as a rule so a little activity would not surprise even if it is upgrading our third rounder to the mid 40s.
The situation with our defensive stocks will become clear as 2018 unfolds. Will AJ make it back as a senior AFL player? (doubt it from what I have seen but hope I am wrong there). Likewise Aliir? (I personally think he is too loose as a FB or CHB so the main issue is where do we fit him in our structure) Is Maibaum senior ready? (I think the answer will be yes but he hasn't really stood out has he) and also if Reg retires or not in 2018? (50/50 at this stage I'd say). Defenders are a highly tradeable commodity, if we do need an extra KPD at the end of next year I have no doubt a suitable trade will present itself but I hope we can fill our requirements from within the squad of possible.
As I've said before I like Aliir but at AFL level I think he'll get found out at as a KPD. I would love to see him play a rebounding intercept marking 7th man in defence role permanently with good licence to run up the ground as required. I think with greater freedom he could become a unique player in that role but I question if our coaching staff would go for that given their manic obsession with pressure and contested footy (which I also like)Last edited by Mug Punter; 13 September 2017, 12:25 AM.Comment
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I agree with pretty much all of this. The only variance would perhaps be that our structures are not immutable and to some degree can be and are adjusted to fit the personnel. If the club sees enough in Aliir they won't continue to leave him out of the side just because of structural issues. Besides AA is so versatile that he should be able to fit a role that they create for him that works with our structure. The problem is that Aliir is not doing enough of what the coaches want to get picked and we don't know what that is or why he is not doing it. I disagree with you, Ludwig, I do think Aliir has gone backwards compared to last season. I'm pretty sure Horse said the same after he picked him and then dropped him earlier this year. I really hope that both Aliir himself and we (the Club) can harness his talent because he's clearly got some.All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)
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I also agree with most of this post. Tippett, Rose, Robbo and Marsh are all contracted next season, but we should explore any interest in them. Talia looks more likely than not to delisted, which is a bit of a shame. He's definitely one who has gone backwards, although I did note earlier that their is often a long recovery period from lisfranc injuries.
With Macca staying on, we might only be up for 2 ND spots. There's no guarantee any senior contracted player will be traded to open an extra slot.
I disagree with much of this going backwards talk about Aliir. He really has played well for a good part of the NEAFL season. I'm not worried about some of the excessive risk taking as this can easily be reined in. He seemed to do okay in 2016. He played some good 1 on 1 defence, but got beaten at times as even the defenders do. He's a good mark, a powerful runner, an excellent kick and reads the play well with ball in hand. What I believe is his weakest point is that he doesn't read the play well when the opposition have the ball, something obviously serious for a defender. He's much improved in this area from the time he was drafted, but still has a way to go. I do see the bad stuff with him. It's not that I'm blind to it. It's just that most of it seems easy to fix. He's a powerful, versatile and skillful player and those don't grow on trees. We need to get the best out of him. He's too good to lose.Comment
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The only 2 certain starters in our KPF ranks are Buddy and Reid. Sinclair has been playing well but certainly isn't a certain starter as yet, needs to show more consistency. Tippett will be in and out based on injuries to other players (if he's still with us in 2018). I'm very hopeful about Cameron, definitely showed something in his first year.
I think a player like Freeman wouldn't cost us much and will challenge others for a spot. He's a 23 year old so is likely to become better as his body matures.Comment
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The depth chart: How is your club placed? - M.afl.com.au
Recruiting guru Kinnear Beatson has built a well-rounded Sydney list but there's no doubt another key defender would help, with Grundy in the twilight of his career and Rampe, Melican and Aliir slightly undersized. Mills should slide into the midfield alongside Heeney to add even more grunt next year, while some more midfield pace could be addressed at the draft again. - Adam CurleyComment
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Talia was, until this year, the obvious replacement for Reg. There is no one else in the reserves that looks the right size.
I think reg is the type of player where the end will come fairly fast. Could be mid next year, or year after, or year after that.
Wouldn't suprise me if they keep Talia on, just in case. Depends on whether Talia is prepared to just wait.Comment
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Even if our three uncontracted players (Talia, BJ and Leonardis) are all moved on or delisted as expected we will be still very tight in finding spots for players on our list. That only gives us space for the two mandatory ND picks and an elevation for Melican. Can not keep both O'Riordan and Murray on the rookie list as only allowed one third year rookie so one will need either elevation or delisting. A shame as they both have shown potential. The other rookies have all shown a bit but some will probably be not happy to stay as rookies though that might be eased a bit if rookies can be selected for AFL games next year. I would expect Beatson to want another one or two picks in the ND which will mean contracted fringe players will be put up for trade for pick upgrades. I would expect a couple to go if offered more opportunities elsewhere. If Lever leaves Adelaide they might even be interested in Talia who would be available very cheaply, a minor pick upgrade is all we could expect. He could then talk to his brother without compromising team confidentiality.Comment
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